U.S. Climate Change Research Program

1
U.S. Climate Change Research Program
Program Element Interactions and Linkages

• Carbon Cycle
• Ecosystems
• Land Use and Land Cover Change

William Hohenstein, Department of Agriculture,
Moderator Bill Emanuel, University of
Virginia Steve Wofsy, Harvard University Richard
Houghton, Woods Hole Research Center Daniel
Lashof, Natural Resources Defense Council Cynthia
Rosenzweig, NASA-Goddard Institute for Space
Studies Jeff Amthor, Department of Energy,
Rapporteur Allen Solomon, Environmental
Protection Agency, Rapporteur
2
Carbon Cycle, Ecosystems, Land Use and Land Cover
Change Interactions Quantification and
Measurement

• Demands on observation systems
• Scales of observation field experiments, remote
  sensing, ground observations
• Several major sources of data and
  under-represented e.g. Forest Service historic
  forest inventory data.
• Time series
• Implementing long-term research now.
• Utilizing historic time-series land use data
  systems (Recent and paleo).
• Unresolved questions remain on how to design and
  extract information.

3
Carbon Cycle, Ecosystems, Land Use and Land Cover
Change Interactions Analysis

• Relationships and interactions between the three
  areas
• Drivers
• How do changes in land use affect carbon stores
• Some relationship obvious and primary (e.g. land
  use driver on carbon cycle), others more
  difficult to quantify (e.g. implication of
  ecosystem changes on land use).
• E.g. Role of albedo.
• Hidden surprises
• Ecosystem responses to climate change and
  implications for carbon cycle
• Includes interdisciplinary components
  population, economics, technology.

4
Carbon Cycle, Ecosystems, Land Use and Land Cover
Change Interactions Assessment

• Projections -- land use and cover change, carbon
  cycling, ecosystem impacts and responses.
• Account for non-linear effects
• Decision support
• Challenges to agriculture
• Urbanization
• Managing land use in the context of climate
  change
• Rather than simply focusing on land use changes
  but rather the implications for ecosystem
  processes

5
Carbon Cycle, Ecosystems, Land Use and Land Cover
Change Interactions Overarching points

• Need to reduce redundancies and avoid
  inconsistencies across chapters.
• Explicit integration across chapters
• Consolidation?
• New integration chapter?
• Feedbacks are important and under-represented in
  the chapter
• Much emphasis on current less on how feedbacks
  are changing and could play out in the future
• Prioritization