ADWEC Electricity

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ADWEC Electricity Water Demand Forecast 2006 -
2020
Mr Keith Miller Head of Planning Studies
Department
Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Company(ADWEC)
MEED 3rd Middle East Power and Desalination12th
13th March 2006Hilton Hotel, Abu Dhabi, UAE
Telephone [phone] Fax 971 (2)
642 5773keithmiller_at_adwec.ae
www.adwec.ae
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Presentation Overview

• Purpose of presentation
• Present ADWECs latest demand forecasts
  Examine the impact of the new Mega Projects on
  the electricity and water demand forecasts.
• Outline new IWPP capacity requirements
• The new Mega Projects will create more IWPP
  projects enhance Privatisation.
• All of the material contained in the presentation
  is new, none of
• it has been released outside of ADWEC / ADWEA
  before.

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ADWEC and Law Number 2 of 1998

• ADWEC is the single buyer and seller of
  electricity and water.
• ADWEC is responsible for
• Electricity Water Demand Forecasting.
• Electricity Water Capacity Planning.
• ADWECs legal duties are fulfilled via
• Annual Electricity Water System Demand
  Forecast.
• Annual Statement of Future Capacity Requirements.

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Article 30 of Law Number 2 of 1998

• Requires ADWEC to
• ensure that, at all times, all reasonable
  demands for water and electricity in the Emirate
  are satisfied.
• To satisfy Law Number 2s requirements ADWEC
  preparesannual forecasts of electricity and
  water demand.
• ADWECs Demand Forecasts are used to prepare
• ADWEC Statement of Future Capacity Requirements
• TRANSCO 5 Year Planning Statement
• Bulk Supply Tariff, ADWEA Budget and Other
  Planning.

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Demand Forecasting Process
Transmission Code Procedure
Distribution Companies (AADC ADDC)submits
Demand Forecast to TRANSCO / ADWEC (week 24)
TRANSCO submits Transmission Losses Forecast to
ADWEC(week 28)
ADWEC independently assesses submitted data and
prepares System Demand Forecasts (week 48)
ADWEC Statement of Future Capacity Requirements
TRANSCO 5 Year Planning Statement
BST, Budget and Other Planning
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ADWEC Electricity and Water Demand Forecasting
Regions
Abu Dhabi Region
Al Ain Region
Western Region
The sum of regional peaks is not equal to the
system peak because of timing differences.
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Recent Developments

• Changes in land ownership laws during 2005
• Releasing of surplus oil revenues for major
  infrastructure developments and mega projects.
• Result Development Boom

Development Boom will require significant
quantities of extra electricity and water
capacity over and above the normal developments
assumed in past ADWEC demand forecasts.
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New Projects in Abu Dhabi
Sadiyat Island
AD Tourist Club
Mina Zayed
Central Market
Break Water
Massnoua Island
Fish Market
Abraj
Airport
Al Raha Beach
Al Reem Island
Plot 4
Khalidiya Complex
Al Raha Gardens
Airport Site
Mangrove Park
Plot C1 in Z9
(200 Villas) P3ABetween Bridges
256 Buildings Mohd Bin Zayed City
ICAD
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Major Changes to Demand Forecasts

• Inclusion of Mega Demand Projects - Al Raha
  Beach
• - Al Raha Gardens
• - Mina Zayed Port
• - Al Reem Island
• - Industrial City of Abu Dhabi extension
• - Sadiyat Island
• - etc
• Al Ain Water Demand inclusion of new information
  - Private Department - New villas -
  Consumption rates etc
• Extension of demand forecast horizon from 2015
  to 2020
• Development of 208 locality Water Demand Model.

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Uncertainties

• ADWEC has developed three electricity and water
  demand forecasts
• High Forecast
• Base / Most Likely Forecast
• Low Forecast
• Uncertainties remain however, for example
• Timing / size of known Mega Projects
• Number of new expatriates living in mega
  projects
• Unannounced new Mega Projects timing / size (e.g.
  Lulu Island)
• ALDAR has 33 unannounced projects
• HCSEZs Special Economic Zones plans and worker
  cities.

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ADWEC Electricity Demand Forecasts(Mega Projects
Assumptions)
1. High Demand Forecast 33.25 Demand /
Diversity Factor (post District
Cooling) Developers Time Schedules Potential
Population Substitution from Existing Population
5 Maximum Annual Mega Projects Population
from Existing Population 10 2. Base Demand
Forecast 28.5 Demand / Diversity Factor (post
District Cooling) Developers Time Schedule 1
Year Delay Potential Population Substitution
from Existing Population 16 Maximum Annual
Mega Projects Population from Existing Population
20 3. Low Demand Forecast 23.125 Demand /
Diversity Factor Developers Time Schedule 2
Year Delay Potential Population Substitution
from Existing Population 20 Maximum Annual
Mega Projects Population from Existing Population
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Unannounced New Projects

• Since ADWEC Demand Forecast was finalised some
  further
• demand projects have been proposed
• 239 MW of a definite new project in 2009.
• 1500 MW of possible new projects from 2010/11
  onwards.
• Sorouh Lulu Island approved by UAE President
  6/3/2006
• (luxury residential, leisure, hotels, commercial
  cultural)
• HCSEZs Special Economic Zones plans and worker
  cities.
• ALDAR has 33 unannounced projects.

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Developers Connected Load Data (MW)
Mega Projects Only

• Above Connected Load data are the Developers
  Estimates not ADWECs.
• Developers Project date estimates are invariably
  optimistic, actual timing is likely to be delayed
  by 1 2 years, for example.
• Peak Demand will likely lag Connected Load
  because of lag associated with moving in etc.
• Relationship between Peak Demand and Connected
  Load depends on Demand Diversity Factors.
• ADWEC has used District Cooling adjusted Demand /
  Diversity Factors of 33 (High), 28.5 (Base) and
  23 (Low).

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Base Electricity Demand Forecast
2005 System Peak 4455 MW
Mega Projects (MW)
System Peak Demand Forecast (MW)
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ADWEC Electricity Demand Forecast 2006 - 2020
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Electricity Peak Demand Forecast
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Electricity Peak Demand Forecast
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Electricity Peak Demand Forecast
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Electricity Peak Demand Forecast
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Electricity Peak Demand Forecast
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ADWEC Water Demand Forecast 2006 - 2020
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Water Peak Demand Forecast
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Water Peak Demand Forecast
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Water Peak Demand Forecast
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Water Peak Demand Forecast
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ADWEC Required Capacity Forecast 2006 - 2020
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Electricity Capacity v Demand
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Water Capacity v Demand
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Conclusions

• Mega Projects have significantly increased
  demand.
• Electricity demand has been shifted 5 years
  forwards.
• High demand creates more IWPP opportunities for
  investors.
• Additional IWPP capacity will be required in
  2009 / 2010.
• Higher IWPP capacity requirements will aid
  privatisation.
• Demand / capacity requirements beyond 2012 are
  uncertain, ADWEC will update its forecasts at
  the end of 2006 when more information becomes
  available.

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THANK YOU
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Presentation Outline

• Purpose
• ADWEC
• Demand Forecasting Process
• Recent Developments
• Uncertainties
• Developers data
• Electricity Demand Forecast
• Water Demand Forecast
• Capacity Forecast
• Conclusions