The Nature and Pace of Change

1
The Nature and Pace of Change

• We are looking here at change as a variable, not
  just a phenomenon. So once more, it is the
  process that interests us and not just the
  effect.
• Historically speaking change is a relatively new
  phenomenon, and most of our ancestors did not
  expect or anticipate change other than disasters.
  The word progress would have meant nothing to a
  European in the Middle Ages. The Manchu Emperors
  sat beneath a sign saying Change Nothing.

2
The Nature and Pace of Change

• Indeed, to our ancestors change represented a
  danger to the existing order, and was usually
  classified as heresy or treason and both of these
  were known to be very bad for your health.
• The strength of society rested in an established
  order, a tradition of how things were done, how
  people dressed, even what you ate. To step
  outside this established order was to ask for
  trouble.

3
The Nature and Pace of Change

• Change came with capitalism and the rise of a
  class outside the existing order (kings, priests
  and peasants). The capitalists were the main
  instrument for change.
• Then came changes in religion, the development of
  rational science, the concept of evolution (which
  is the study of one form of change), and the
  spread of secular education

4
Thinkers about Change
5

• "Why is it that all our institutions seem to be
  going through a simultaneous crisis? Why is it
  that the health system's in crisis, the justice
  system's in crisis, the education system's in
  crisis, the value system's in crisis -- you name
  it -- why? There must be something that cuts
  across all of these. ... And why is it happening
  in Tokyo and London and Italy and so forth? Why
  is there a political crisis throughout all the
  political countries? The answer is that we have
  sets of institutions that were designed either
  for agrarian life ... as parliaments were, or ...
  the Industrial Age, but no longer meet the
  requirements of today. And the problem used to be
  -- it took what? Three months for a message to
  get from Ohio to Washington? And vice versa? And
  the idea was the Senate would be a chamber for
  leisurely deliberation for the major issues.
  Well, come on! Nobody has two minutes of
  uninterrupted time. So the external conditions
  are radically changed. So the question is how
  flexible are the existing institutions
  themselves. We're fortunate, the Americans are
  lucky, because our system is generally more
  flexible and certainly more decentralized than
  the other industrial states. Which gives us a
  better shot. But I don't believe that the system
  can continue in its present form." Alvin Toffler
  1996

6
The Nature and Pace of Change

• But change is now not only accepted, it is
  considered necessary (consider the concept of
  Economic Growth)
• Change as a process has been accelerating since
  the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. (see
  figure of waves)
• But, there is a question of how much change, and
  at what speed, can society absorb without stress
  and collapse--Alvin Tofflers concept of Future
  Shock

7
The Nature and Pace of Change

• Obsolesce and fashion are manifestations of
  change, so is the breakdown of the Western family
• Basically we make several mistakes about change
• 1. We underestimate its speed
• 2. We underestimate its impact
• 3. There is an institutional bias toward
  preserving the status quo

8
Just supposing, in 1989, someone had predicted.

• The disappearance of the USSR
• The end of the Warsaw Pact and Cold War
• End of Apartheid--and President Mandela
• Unification of Germany
• Invention of the WWW
• End of Yugoslavia
• 23 new members of the UN.

9
The Nature and Pace of Change

• The key question about change, since it is now an
  accepted part of life, is what do you do about
  it?
• You can either wait until it happens and try to
  deal with it (some form of crisis management) or
  you can try to anticipate it by strategic
  thinking and planning (strategic management)
• Again technology has a lot to do with it, but the
  question is do we remain the master of
  technology, or do we become its slave? That
  depends on anticipating change and not being its
  victim.

10
The Nature and Pace of Change

• There are two types of change, and it is
  difficult to define them exactly, but there is
  incremental change, which means that things
  change within an existing broad order, and there
  is a paradigm shift in which change occurs that
  fundamentally alters the basic rules. In politics
  you could think of the emergence of liberal
  democracy within a social order, and contrast
  that with the Russian Revolution, which totally
  overturned the social order (though it came back
  after 70 years!)

11
The Nature and Pace of Change

• There is a problem, however, that no-one can
  accurately predict change, and there is always
  the wild card of technology. Consider the case of
  the Rev. Malthus and the question was he wrong?
• Can we ever account for technology? If we say
  that the forecasters were always wrong because of
  this, the danger is we construct technology as an
  act of faith, saying dont worry something will
  come along to save us, like the Green Revolution
  did.