Population and Malthus

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Population and Malthus

• Demographic Transition

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4 stages based on level of IndustrializationLevel
one the least industrialized to Level 4 the most
industrialized

• greater industrialization lower birth rate and
  higher mortality rate until natural increase or
  growth rate is either zero or negative numbers
• You can tell the level of industrialization by
  looking at population pyramids

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Demographic Transition in Sweden and Mexico
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Law of 70

• The unprecedented population growth of modern
  times heightens interest in the notion of
  doubling time.
• Calculation of population doubling time is
  facilitated by the Law of 70
• If a population is growing at a constant rate of
  1 per year, it can be expected to double
  approximately every 70 years
• -- if the rate of growth is 2, then the expected
  doubling time is 70/2 or 35 years.

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Malthus (1766-1834)

• Population issues of fertility and mortality or
  births and deaths
• In his Essay on the Principle of Population,
  initially published in 1798, Malthus postulated
  that population tended to grow geometrically
  while the means of subsistence (food) grew only
  arithmetically
• Mathusian Trap Gap (gap cannot persist
  indefinitely)
• arithmetic growth (food)1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8,
  9, 10
• geometric growth (population)1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32,
  64, 128, 256, 512
• Malthus argued that the difference between
  geometric and arithmetic growth caused a tension
  between the growth of population and that of the
  means of subsistence

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Food Population, 1950-2000Malthus vs. Actual
Trends
Fig. 2-20 Malthus predicted population would
grow faster than food production, but food
production actually expanded faster than
population in the 2nd half of the 20th century.
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Fallacies in theory

• War, hunger, disease, vice, morality served as a
  positive check on population growth
• Preventive checks birth control through
• later age at marriage
• abstinence from sex outside marriage.
• Malthus opposed artificial methods of birth
  control on moral grounds.
• Viewed contraception as a vice
• Contrary to Malthuss prediction, mortality
  (death rate) has not yet risen to curb world
  population growth
• 1 billion people in 1800 - 6 billion end of 20th
  century
• Malthus did not forsee the population explosion
• He did not recognize the force of the Industrial
  Revolution which produced exponential growth in
  the means of subsistence

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Malthus and Marx Today

• Neo-Malthusians - Believe we are approaching, or
  have already surpassed, the earths carrying
  capacity.
• We should make over-population issues our first
  priority.
• Neo-Marxists - Believe eliminating oppression and
  poverty through social justice is the only
  solution to the population problem.
• Wealth and resource distribution must be
  addressed.

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The demographic Transition
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The Demographic Transition in Developed and
Developing Countries
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The model itself
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Population pyramids
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Population Pyramids

• Graphic representation of a population
• Shows age-sex composition
• Broad base high fertility and mortality
• Narrow base low fertility and mortality

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Age Structure Diagrams
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CAMEROON
2000
2050
USA
JAPAN
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Female Labor Force Participation Rates Vary
Widely around the World
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Box 7.3 top
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Box 7.3 Population and Age Structure in Russia
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Population growth by country
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Over Time, Geometric Growth Overtakes Arithmetic
Growth
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The Demographic Transition
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Modernization Theory

• Macro-level theory that sees human actors as
  being buffeted by changing social institutions.
• Individuals did not deliberately lower their risk
  of death to precipitate the modern decline in
  mortality.
• Society wide increases in income and improved
  public health infrastructure brought about this
  change.

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The Demographic Transition Impact on Society
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World Population Growth1950 - 2005
Fig. 2-6 Total world population increased from
2.5 to over 6 billion in slightly over 50 years.
The natural increase rate peaked in the early
1960s and has declined since, but the number of
people added each year did not peak until 1990.
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Life Expectancy at birth
Fig. 2-11 Life expectancy at birth is the
average number of years a newborn infant can
expect to live. The highest life expectancies
are generally in the wealthiest countries, and
the lowest in the poorest countries.
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Crude Death Rates
Fig. 2-12 The crude death rate (CDR) is the
total number of deaths in a country per 1000
population per year. Because wealthy countries
are in a late stage of the Demographic
Transition, they often have a higher CDR than
poorer countries.
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Population Pyramids in U.S. cities
Fig. 2-16 Population pyramids can vary greatly
with different fertility rates (Laredo vs.
Honolulu), or among military bases (Unalaska),
college towns (Lawrence), and retirement
communities (Naples).
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HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates, 2005
Fig. 2-26 The highest HIV infection rates are in
sub-Saharan Africa. India and China have large
numbers of cases, but lower infection rates at
present.
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Human Population History
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Estimated Human Population Growth
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Life Expectancy
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Table 4.2
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What do population statistics tell us about the
development of a country?
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Population and development

• Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame, With
  conquering limbs astride from land to land
• Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
• A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
• Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
• Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
• Glows world-wide welcome her mild eyes command
• The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.
• "Keep ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries
  she
• With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
  
• Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
• The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
• Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
• I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"