Climate Change and Agriculture in the Great Lakes Region

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Climate Change and Agriculture in the Great Lakes
Region

• Potential Impacts of Climatic Variability and
  Change
• Jeffrey A. Andresen
• Dept. of Geography
• Michigan State University

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Climate Change andAgricultural Productivity

• Crop, forage productivity and production costs
• Changing temperature, precipitation
• CO2 enrichment
• Occurrence of extremes

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Climate Change andAgricultural Productivity

• Soil suitability
• Soil Erosion
• Oxidation of organic matter

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Climate Change andAgricultural Productivity

• Livestock productivity and production cost
• Animal mortality
• Feed conversion rates
• Rates of gain
• Milk production
• Conception rates

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Climate Change andAgricultural Productivity

• Irrigation water supply
• Changes in precipitation frequency and totals
• Changes in groundwater recharge rates
• Changes in nonagricultural usage

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Annual trends (yr-1) for selected simulated
variables, soybean, 1895-1996
Trend significant at a0.05 level
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Projected Changes in Climate Great Lakes Region

• While considerable differences and uncertainty
  exist, the majority of future climate simulations
  suggest a warmer and wetter climate across the
  region.

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Estimated changes in national crop production in
2030 relative to 2000 (Reilly et al., 2001)
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Ratios of GCM-projected future and POR historical
scenario crop yields averaged over all stations
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Simulated Historical and Projected Future Growing
Season and Water Balance for Maize, Bay City, MI
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Agricultural strategies for coping with climate
change

• Adaptation
• Learn to change, adapt
• Mitigation
• Reduction of carbon and other GHG
• Carbon sequestration
• Production of fuels/energy from biomass/animal
  waste
• Reduction of CH4 and N2O
• Use of alternative energy sources in production

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Probability Distribution of Simulated Dryland
Double Crop Soybean Yields by Planting
DateAdrian, MI, 1895-2000
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Probability Distribution of Simulated Irrigated
Double Crop Soybean Yields by Planting Date
Adrian, MI, 1895-2000
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Summary

• A changing climate leads to many potential
  challenges for agricultural production systems.
• Observed climate has become wetter and cloudier
  in the Great Lakes Region, especially during the
  last 50 years.
• The single most important climatological variable
  associated with crop yields regionally is
  precipitation. Growing season length and GDD
  accumulation were relatively more important at
  northern study sites.

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Summary (continued)

• The warmer and wetter climate suggested by the
  many GCM projections for our region would suggest
  yield increases for many crops. Yields of some
  crops in the region might decline.
• A significant portion of any future yield
  increases will be associated with CO2 enrichment.
• Recent research results suggest greater agronomic
  potential for northern sections of the region,
  even with less suitable soils.
• More research is needed, especially regarding
  indirect impacts of climate change and extreme
  events.

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