Class of January 13

1
Class of January 13

• Self-interest or public service (Chretien,
  Goldenberg, research on motivation, Shalala)
• Choosing a party leader
• Student presentations on party websites
• Campaigning evolution from 1970s to this decade
• Confidence of the House of Commons, majority and
  minority governments

2
Self-Interest or Public Service?

• Jean Chretien for politicians self-interest and
  public service inseparable
• Goldenberg MPs want to become ministers,
  ministers and public servants want money for
  their departments PIMBY syndrome, PMs set
  priorities, make patronage appointments
• Research on motivation people who join public
  service more altruistic than those who go into
  private sector
• Public Choice economists theory of the public
  sector

3
Idealist Alternative to Public Choice

• Shalala reading
• Lead by example and vision, things you want to do
  to improve the public good
• Honesty, integrity, transparency
• Dont fudge the science, dont let politics
  dominate policy
• Get different disciplines in dept working
  together
• Be willing to face bad news
• Its your friends, not your enemies, who get you
  into trouble

4
Choosing a Party Leader

• Process who chooses? How is party membership
  determined?
• Widespread trend to increasing involvement of
  party rank-and-file
• Direct democracy, all party members votes equal
  Alberta Conservatives
• Representative democracy (Canada) all party
  members choose some convention delegates (federal
  Liberals)
• Emergency choice of interim leader (federal
  Liberals)
• Representative democracy (US) all voters in the
  primaries choose some convention delegates for
  either party
• Support for preferred policies vs. broader public
  appeal
• Experience or baggage (Bob Rae, Hillary Clinton,
  John McCain)?

5
Campaigning

• Student presentation on federal Conservative
  party website Ritesh Kotak, Nisha Vijh, Alex
  Tong
• Student presentation of federal Liberal party
  website Peng Hao, Stefan Perera

6
Developments in Campaigning since the 1970s

• Leaders tour from public rallies to media
  events
• Early US primaries the best example of retail
  politics
• From detailed manifesto to vague promises back to
  manifestos (Liberal red book, discussed in
  Goldenberg)
• First federal leaders debate in 1968 more
  debates, in both languages, earlier in campaign
• Government choosing date for maximum advantage
  (Blakeney 1978) to fixed election dates (BC, ON)
  for a majority government
• Increase in negative campaigning personal
  attacks on party leaders
• More sophisticated polling and get-out-the-vote
  (GOTV) technology
• US Democrats make information available for
  volunteers to GOTV
• Federal Conservatives CIMS (constituency
  management information system)
• Use of Internet since 2000, blogs since 2004,
  networking sites (YouTube and Facebook) since 2006

7
On-Line Campaigning

• An alternative channel to traditional television,
  radio, print, in-person campaigning
• Particular appeal to younger voters
• Functions platform, candidates, pressroom,
  attacks and defence, spin for debates, online
  posting of ads and speeches, candidate blog or
  v-blog, fund-raising and volunteering
• Your message is direct and unmediated
• Fund-raising significance likely to grow with
  limits on donations
• Mybarackobama.com the leading edge in online
  campaigning, now visit change.gov

8
Minority Government Math

• House of Commons has 308 seats
• majority 154
• Results for 2008 election
• Conservatives 143 (125 last Parliament)
• Liberals 77 (96 last Parliament)
• Bloc Quebecois 49 (49 last Parliament)
• NDP 37 (30 last Parliament)
• Independent 2
• Speaker (votes with government to break ties) is
  a Liberal
• Liberals NDP Bloc 163

9
The Confidence Convention

• The Government (i.e. the Cabinet) must have the
  confidence of the House of Commons. If defeated
  in a confidence vote, budget vote, or vote on a
  significant issue, it must resign. The PM, as the
  Governor-Generals chief adviser suggests a
  course of action. The Governor-General (GG)
  usually dissolves Parliament, leading to an
  election, but may approach the leader of another
  party to form a government (more likely early in
  a mandate).

10
Parliament what happens next?

• In December, Liberal-NDP coalition with BQ
  support intended to defeat government in
  confidence vote over economic statement
• Harper asked GG to prorogue Parliament to
  pre-empt confidence vote
• Budget to be presented on January 27
• If budget defeated, Harper will ask GG to
  dissolve Parliament (because Conservatives better
  prepared for an election, lead in polls)
• Will Liberal-NDP coalition, with Bloc support,
  ask GG to form government?

11
The Changeable Federal Electorate

• Recent history
• 1968-84 Trudeau Liberals dominant
• 1984 Mulroney (Progressive Conservative)
  landslide over Turner
• Mulroney wins free trade election (1988)
• 1993-2003 Chretien landslide over Kim Campbell
  (PC), PC-Reform split, birth of Bloc Quebecois
• 2004 new Conservative party, Liberal minority
• 2006 Conservative minority

12
The 2008 Federal Election

• Conservatives entered the campaign with a 10-15
  point lead over the Liberals, but didnt get a
  majority Conservatives won swing votes in
  Ontario, BC
• Conservatives negative advertising about Dion
  (not a leader) worked
• Harper out of touch with deteriorating economy
  (good time to buy stocks) and cultural spending
  cuts hurt in Quebec

13
The Surprising 2007 Ontario Election

• Liberals and Conservatives even at start
• Liberal strategy McGuinty delivers results
  (education, health), attack Tory as a right-wing
  Mike Harris in disguise
• Conservative strategy Tory a strong leader,
  attack McGuinty as promise breaker/liar
• Torys support for faith-based schools became the
  key issue
• John Tory leadership matters
• Outcome 71 Liberal, 25 Conservative, 10 NDP, 1
  independent, John Tory not a member, defeated in
  Toronto

14
Next Week Readings

• Blakeney and Borins, chapters 1,2,3,5,8,18
  (cabinet, relations between cabinet and
  bureaucracy, transition)
• Goldenberg, chapter 4
• Chretien, pp. 33-40 (after Flanagan in readings
  package)
• Optional Goldenberg, chapter 5

15
Student Presentations Next Week

• Two groups of three students, one for the federal
  Cabinet (Ovi Ahsan, Fahad Jawaid, Karen Ng) and
  one for the Ontario Cabinet (Jenny Lu, Eleanor
  Lau, Chris Chung). Explain the composition of
  each cabinet on the basis of the considerations
  discussed in Blakeney and Borins, chapter 2 as
  well as Goldenberg, chapter 4 (ability, loyalty,
  representation, etc.).