NASA Energy and Water Study

1
NASA Energy and Water Study
http//gwec.gsfc.nasa.gov

• Dr. Paul R. Houser NASA Goddard Space Flight
  Center

Paul R. Houser, NASA/GSFC Hydrological
Sciences Paul.R.Houser_at_nasa.gov
2
NEWS Objective

• What are the causes of
• water cycle variations?
• Are variations in the global
• and regional water cycle predictable?
• How are water and
• nutrient cycles linked?

• Document and enable improved, observation-based
  water and energy cycle consequence predictions
  (floods and droughts) of earth system variability
  and change
• Integrate research across traditional disciplines
• An end-to-end program that transitions
  theoretical research to academic/public education
  and real-world application,
• Cultivate partnerships with universities,
  government, and international agencies.
• Focused investments towards better water energy
  cycle prediction
• Water energy cycle research that makes a
  difference

3
NASA Earth Science Enterprise Studying Climate
Change and Its Impacts
How is the Earth changing and what are the
consequences for life on Earth?

• Variability How is the global Earth system
  changing?
• V1 How are global precipitation, evaporation and
  the cycling of water changing?
• V2 How is the global ocean circulation varying
  on interannual, decadal, and longer time scales?
• V3 How are global ecosystems changing?
• V4 How is stratospheric ozone changing, as the
  abundance of ozone-destroying chemicals decreases
  and new substitutes increase?
• V5 What changes are occurring in the mass of the
  Earth's ice cover?
• Forcing What are the primary forcings of the
  Earth system?
• F1 What trends in atmospheric constituents and
  solar radiation are driving global climate?
• Response How does the Earth system response to
  natural and human-induced changes?
• R1 What are the effects of clouds and surface
  hydrologic processes on Earth's climate?
• R2 How do ecosystems response to and affect
  global environmental change and the carbon cycle?
• R3 How can climate variations induce changes in
  the global ocean circulation?
• Consequences What are the consequences of change
  in the Earth system for human civilization?
• C1 How are variations in local weather,
  precipitation and water resources related to
  global climate variation?
• C2 What are the consequences of land cover and
  land use change for the sustainability of
  ecosystems and economic productivity?
• C3 What are the consequences of climate and sea
  level changes and increased human activities on
  coastal regions?

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How are Variations in Local Weather,
Precipitation and Water Resources related to
Global Climate Variation?
Improved precipitation forecasts that support
Water supply DSS with 7-10 day lead time
seasonal water supply forecasting ability
River discharge monitored globally Snow water
equivalent observations
T
NASA
Global precipitation measurements
Joint
Unfunded
Global Soil Moisture
field campaign
Quantification of mean state and variability of
the water cycle that includes quantification of
precipitation, evaporation, runoff and water
storages
Global estimates of ocean evaporation and
assimilated land evaporation
T Technology development required
Global monitoring of water and energy and
interdisciplinary field experiments
GOAL Models capable of predicting the water
cycle, including floods and droughts, down to
10s of kms
Cloud parameterization and precipitation/water-vap
or assimilation enabling more reliable short-term
precipitation forecasts and accurate roll of
clouds in climate predictions
Vertical profiles of cloud structure and
properties
Knowledge Base
Data assimilation of precipitation and water vapor
Detection of gravity perturbations due to water
distribution
Assessments of natural variability in
atmospheric, surface and subsurface moisture
stores
EOS/in-situ observations of water vapor and soil
wetness
Improved latent heating profiles and convective
parameterizations within weather and climate
models
Observations of tropical rainfall/energy release
Ongoing model improvements Enhancements in
computing resources

• Reservoirs and tropical rainfall well quantified
• Difficulty balancing the water budget on any
  scale
• Inability to observe and predict precipitation
  globally

Systematic measurements of
precipitation, SST, land cover snow
5
Energy and Water Cycle Road Map
DRAFT Unofficial Version (3.17.2004)
Focus Area Challenge Document and enable
improved, observation-based water and energy
cycle consequence predictions (floods and
droughts) of earth system variability and
change
Address the ESE vision deliver and evaluate
system
Focus Area Linkages
C
Carbon

• Phase 3 Deliverables
• Dataset gaps filled and extended
• Intensive prediction system testing
• Prediction system delivery

Climate variability
V
Atmospheric composition
A
Weather
W
Surface interior
S
Technology development
T

• APPLICATION
• Improved water energy
• cycle forecasts for use in
• decision support systems

Field campaign
Funded
Unfunded
Address deficiencies and build prediction system
Predict consequences of climate change
Global hydrologic warning system
Demonstrate useful predictions

• Phase 2 Deliverables
• Fix model problems with new observations
• New measurement approaches developed
• End-to-end prediction system developed

Exploiting current capabilities and preparing for
the future

• ANALYSIS PREDICTION
• Understand variability in
• stores and fluxes
• Accurate cloud prediction
• Improve latent heating
• convection models

Knowledge Base

• Phase 1 Deliverables
• First coordinated global WE description
• Current prediction system evaluation
• Identify required system improvements

Observations used in planning
Test prediction of extremes
Reprocess combined observation record
Develop application metrics
Demonstrate prediction capacity
Selected demonstrations
Application
Full end-to-end system test
Climatology baselines
Enhanced RT models
Establish requirements
Improved physics
Model convergence
Prediction

• OBSERVATION
• Quantify mean state,
• variability, and extremes of
• the water energy cycles
• Quantification of fluxes
• and storages

Comprehensive WE cycle data management
and retrieval system
Super-parameterization
Land-cloud model
Multi-platform analysis
Multi-platform analysis
Physics-based modeling
OSSEs
New climate datasets
Advanced multi-platform retrievals
Observation
Experimental WE observation system
Advanced Analysis
Coordinated W E system
Cold seasons
TRMM TERRA AQUA GRACE ICESAT
First Coordinated WE Obs
GPM AQUARIUS HYDROS
Surface water
CloudSAT
CALIPSO
AURA
Systematic observations of water and energy cycle
including national and international partners
IPCC Report
IPCC Report
IPCC Report
IPCC Report
2012
2014
2016
2018
2010
2004
2006
2008
6
Application Science Themes



Water and Energy is linked to all 12 Science
Application Themes.
7
Jareds HQ Guidance

• 1) Need to define what are the key aspects of
  the greater set of challenges (related to surface
  water) that are within NASA's purview.
• 2) It's important that NASA not overstep its
  bounds. As such it might be a good idea to pursue
  other agencies to either take the lead or help us
  take the lead. (It goes without saying that we
  would avoid redundancy)
• 3) Finally, it is imperative that everyone
  understands that it's science that drives our
  planning. Not applications and not the need to
  have more satellites in space. Any working group
  (similar to this one) should keep this in mind.
• 4) ESSP4 timing? Not sure. There should be some
  movement on it this summer. But remember
  obviously that the announcement itself isn't the
  first thing that's release. You might want to
  relay that whole process to them.
• 5) In addition to what I said in my other email
  you might also want to warn them that putting
  together a proposal is A LOT of work. At this
  point I'm not so sure about the snow group and to
  some extent this group is not as far along as
  them. They really need to think weighing the
  amount of work versus the risk (certainly the
  reward is high though).

8
Jareds Guidance

• 1) Groundwater is obviously important
  hydrologically and for society, but this alone is
  not sufficient criteria to have it added to our
  roadmaps. My hope is that the meeting can define
  what are the key aspects of the greater set of
  challenges (related to groundwater) that are
  within NASA's purview.
• 2) In corresponding with 1, it's important that
  NASA not overstep its bounds. Perhaps, rather
  than a NASA THP working group, what's really
  required is a community working
  group. As such it might be a good idea to pursue
  other agencies to either take the lead or help us
  take the lead. (It goes without saying that we
  would avoid redundancy. If another agency lead a
  groundwater activity perhaps NASA could suggest a
  new remote sensing and/or modeling sub-group to
  it.)
• 3) Finally, it is imperative that everyone
  understands that it's science that drives our
  planning. Not applications and not the need to
  have more satellites in space. Any working group
  (similar to this one) should keep this in mind.