OPEC Meeting: Will They Surprise The Market?

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Commodity Trading Research
Will Bulls Make A Run On OPEC Meeting?
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• Hi, My name is Justin and Im with Commodity
  Trading Research, today were reviewing our
  recently published article

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• Will Bulls Make A Run On OPEC Meeting?

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• This is a big week for the oil market.
• The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
  (OPEC) is gathering in Vienna this Friday to
  discuss output policy for the coming year.

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• Without question, this OPEC meeting will be
  highly contentious As youre likely aware, de
  facto OPEC leader Saudi Arabia sent crude prices
  into the gutter in 2015 in hopes of retaining
  global market share.

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• But after a prolonged downturn in prices some
  analysts are wondering if the Saudis will abandon
  their controversial policy.

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• After all, pressure is building from Iran and
  other OPEC members to abandon the current plan in
  favor of production cuts and higher prices.

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• Will the Saudis reverse course and cut
  production from their gluttonous 10 million
  barrels a day?

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• I doubt it You see, even though all of OPEC is
  suffering with low prices, Saudi Arabia is likely
  more concerned with soon to be rising Iranian
  output.

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• Keep in mind, with Irans nuclear sanctions on
  the verge of being lifted as much as 1 million
  barrels a day of new oil could hit the global
  market in 2016. And thats not all

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• The Saudis have gone on the record many times
  stating theyll only cut production if other
  large non-OPEC countries do the same. That means
  Russia would have to slash output as well.

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• Since Russia will be absent from Fridays
  meeting, most analysts agree the Saudis will
  continue their focus on retaining market share.

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• Its hard to imagine, but this tenuous situation
  puts the crude market at risk of sliding to new
  lows in the coming year. Heres a chart

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• As you can see, West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
  crude is just a stones throw away from the
  yearly low near 39 a barrel. If it were any
  other week, Id say the odds favor a technical
  bounce to higher prices.

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• However, with Fridays OPEC meeting just around
  the corner its likely crude stays subdued the
  next few trading days.

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• But then sparks will fly

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• If OPEC surprises the market and cuts production,
  you can bet your bottom dollar crude bulls will
  run wild through the streets. But as I said
  earlier, thats not the most likely outcome.

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• Instead, OPEC will likely stick to their plan and
  keep production steady. Once this is confirmed
  theres a very good chance WTI bears send the
  commodity careening below the 52-week low near
  39 a barrel.

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• Given the current oversupply in the market, bulls
  will be hard pressed to keep crude from falling
  below this important line in the sand.

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• How do you capitalize on this situation?

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• Crude oil tracking ETFs are one of the most
  efficient and easy means of trading the crude
  market. But if youre really looking for wild
  trading action after this Fridays meeting, look
  no further than leveraged crude ETFs.

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