Risk Assessments: Predicting the Probability of Serious Harm

1
Risk Assessments Predicting the Probability of
Serious Harm

• Dina McMillan, PhD

October 2006
2
A True Story Arcelia

• 34, Mexican (illegal), 3 children 1 with
  offender
• Sought AVO due to
• Partner always controlling, but worse over past
  months
• Over past weeks he was drinking more followed by
  jealous rages
• He threatened to kill her if she left which she
  believed
• When not angry he had become sad and quiet, and
  spoke of suicide
• She knew he had access to a gun
• He choked her the night before then forced her to
  have sex
• No visible injuries or bruising
• Visibly shaken and frightened
• She left with child was seeking protection and
  safe haven

3
True Story Diego (Arcelias partner)

• 38, Mexican (illegal), no steady employment
• Very dissociated during interview
• No eye contact
• Spoke in monotone, without emotion of any kind
• Rigid, unmoving body posture
• Calmly claimed he loved his wife and their
  daughter
• Denied incidents of physical harm
• Did not respond to questions of excessive control
  or jealousy
• Seemed unconcerned with outcome of court case

4
Danger Assessment (J Campbell)
5
Court Response Arcelia Diego

• Part I
• Temporary AVO granted
• Victim given Staying Safe brochure
• Both parties required to attend investigative
  interview
• Offender held in court for 45 minutes after
  victim exited
• Part II (Two Weeks later)
• Investigator did not know or use risk assessment
• Bruises on neck had faded, but still visible
  (light)
• Investigator advised court not to extend AVO
• Offender followed victim from court shot her,
  then himself in front of their 11 year-old
  daughter

6
Purpose of Risk Assessments

• Help women and DV support workers develop useful
  and realistic safety plans
• Assist perpetrator programs to select appropriate
  types and amounts of treatment
• Guide judicial system in targeting those
  perpetrators who warrant closer supervision

Dr. Lesley Laing, Sydney University
7
What Risk Assessments Can Not Do

• State definitively that a particular victim will
  be grievously harmed (or killed) by a perpetrator
  
• Calculate types and degrees of re-offense
  (prosecutable actions) by perpetrator
• Determine when or where a perpetrator will act
  against the victim or collateral persons
• Force authorities to pay attention to the results

8
Types of Risk Assessments in Use

• Danger Assessment Intimate Partner Violence Risk
  Assessment
• (Jacqueline C. Campbell,PhD,1986, Revised 1995)
• On-line at http//www.dangerassessment.org
• See also Campbell, Jacqueline C., 2003. Risk
  Factors for Femicide in Abusive Relationships
  Results from a Multi-site Case Control Study,
  American Journal of Public Health, vol. 93 (7).
• Spousal Assault Risk Assessment (SARA) (Kropp,
  Hart, 2000. )

9
Other Risk Assessment Scales

• Propensity for Abusiveness Scale (Dutton, 1995a)
• Psychological Maltreatment of Women Inventory
  (Tolman, 1989)
• Revised Conflict Tactics Scale 2 (Straus,
  Hamby, Boney-McCoy Sugarman, 1996)
• Risk checklist/Psychological Violence Inventory
  (Sonkin, 2000)
• Relationship Conflict Inventory (Bodin, 1996)
• Dominance Scale (Hamby, 1995)
• Womens Experiences with Battering (Smith, Earp,
  DeVellis, 1995)

10
Most Assessments Ask About

• Victim
• Prior victimisation history with the Perpetrator
• Status of the relationship whether the parties
  are separated, separating, estranged, or she is
  in the process of fleeing
• Perpetrator
• Drug and alcohol use
• Obsessive-possessive behaviour and excessive
  jealousy
• Prior threats to kill Victim or her children
• Possession of, access to, familiarity with, and
  fascination with weaponry, especially guns
• Use of violence in settings outside the home
  (e.g. pub brawls)
• Stalking behaviour
• Suicidal ideations, plans, threats, and past
  attempts

11
Most Risk Assessments Do Not Ask

• Perpetrators depressive state (without suicidal
  threats)
• Any history of domestic violence in the Victim or
  Perpetrators family of origin
• Whether he has violated a previous AVO
• Victims drug or alcohol problems
• Whether he has physical access to her or knows of
  her whereabouts, lifestyle and movements
• Whether he has threatened or harmed family pets
• Whether there is any history of hostage-taking
• Whether she believes he is capable of killing her

12
Risk Assessors May Consider

• Personal Factors that May be Influential
• Homelessness Risk
• Financial responsibility for family
• Drug addiction
• Charge(s) of domestic abuse, current and former
• Other criminal charges, current and former
• Poverty
• Lack of skills and education
• Sexual identity (including orientation)
• Age
• Abilities
• Language Skills

2003, Radhia A. Jaaber and Shamita Das Dasgupta
13
Assessments May Also be Affected By

• Institutional Elements
• Child protection service
• Criminal justice system
• Immigration status
• Civil justice system
• Law enforcement (e.g. local police, prosecution)
• Trans-national laws
• Federal laws
• Social services

14
Cultural Factors that Influence Actions

• Ethnic Identity
• Group Identity
• Religion
• Nationality
• Socioeconomic Class
• Responsibility for family honour integrity
• Cultural Norms and Standards
• Childhood socialisation

15
Risk Overview ? Best Practice

• 1. Past assault of strangers, acquaintances,
  family, police officers or animals
• 2. Violation of Non-Contact Orders
• 3. Recent relationship problems
• 4. Recent employment problems
• 5. Recent substance abuse/dependence
• 6. Past physical assault of intimate partner
• 7. Recent psychotic and/or manic symptoms

2002, Metropolitan Police Service, New Scotland
Yard, London, UK
16
Risk Overview ? Higher Risk

• 8. Recent suicidal or homicidal ideation/intent
  
• 9. Past sexual assault/extreme sexual jealousy
• 10. Past use of weapons and/or credible threats
  of death
• 11. Recent escalation in frequency or severity of
  assault
• 12. Extreme minimisation or denial of spousal
  assault history

Higher Risk of Serious Assault or Homicide)
17
Homicide Risk ? by Particular Act

• Controls most or all of victims daily activities
  (5 x)
• Violence has recently increased in frequency (4x)
• Perpetrator uses illegal drugs (4x)
• Perpetrator is drunk almost every day (4x)
• Victim has been beaten while pregnant (4x)
• Victim believes he is capable of killing her (3x)
• Perpetrator has been reported for child abuse
  (3x)
• Perpetrator is violent outside of the home (2x)

18
Highest Risk Factors for DV Homicide

• Perpetrator has ever used or threatened to use a
  gun, knife or other weapon (20.2 x)
• Has ever threatened to kill her (14.9 x)
• Has ever tried to strangle or choke her (9.9 x)
• Is violently or constantly jealous (9.2 x)
• Has ever forced her to have sex (7.6 x)
• Has access to a gun (6.1 x)
• Violence has recently increased in severity (5x)

19
Health Risks ? Perpetrators of Abuse

• Depression
• Anxiety
• Unhealthy Eating/ Eating Disorders
• Back Problems
• Heart Problems
• High Blood Pressure
• Digestive Problems
• Tobacco use
• Alcohol abuse
• Drug abuse (illegal and prescription)
• Suicide

20
Social Risks ? Perpetrators of Abuse

• Under-employment
• Job Loss
• Divorce
• Alienation from family
• Social Isolation
• Victim of Violent Crime
• Perpetrator of Violent Crime
• Victim of Homicide
• Perpetrator of Homicide

21
Health Risks ? Victims of Abuse

• Depression
• Anxiety
• Eating Disorders
• Tobacco use
• Alcohol abuse
• Drug use (illegal and prescription abuse)
• STD
• Cervical cancer
• Unwanted pregnancies
• Physical injuries
• Suicide
• Homicide

22
DV Homicide Statistics Do Not Include

• Suicides by abused women
• Missing women who have been murdered by an
  intimate
• Killings wrongly assessed as accidental
• Perpetrators who murder others family members,
  friends or neighbours of their partner
• Perpetrators who murder the children of their
  partner
• Perpetrators who murder responding police
  officers
• Ex-partners (where significant time has passed)

23
DV Homicide Statistics also Do Not Include

• Women who have been gravely injured when the
  attempt to kill them failed
• Murders of older women deemed mercy killings
• Abused women who kill their abusers in situations
  where she is not at immediate risk
• It is estimated that almost half (45) of men
  killed by women are the result of women killing
  their abusers
• In 29 of cases where women are killed by a male
  intimate, the male also commits suicide

24
Still to Be Done

• Increase public awareness of risks
• Increase awareness of risk of death among judging
  bodies (magistrates, mediators, probation
  officers)
• Promote greater use of customised risk assessment
  tools
• Make legal support for victims of domestic
  violence more thorough and consistent
• Provide more effective counselling programs for
  perpetrators
• Provide more thorough support for victims,
  including counselling and financial support
• Promote programs to prevent domestic abuse

25
For Further Information

• Dina McMillan, PhD
• drdina1_at_msn.com
• T 02 9363 3067
• M 0424 296 682