CHRA ACHRU

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CHRA -ACHRU

• A networking agent for change

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Tri-Country Policy Update

• Presented by Geoff Gillard
• Acting Executive Director
• October 14, 2008
• Pantages Hotel, Toronto

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Much will have to change in Canada if the
country is to stay the same

• Quote by Abraham Rotstein
• Political Scientist, University of Toronto
• Quoted in Globe and Mail, October 12
• Quoted by Peter C. Newman
• Former Editor in Chief, Toronto Star

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Change in Canadas Housing System?

• Not a lot- enhancements, but little thats
  changed the game
• Thats fine, when theres enough and things are
  working
• Need in Canada is not being met
• Program enhancements at the Provincial level
• First Nations Market Housing Fund- 300 Million
  On-Reserve
• CMHC Housing Studies Achievement Awards- 5
  10,000 Graduate Scholarships
• Single Room Occupancy buildings being bought up
  by Government of BC
• Increasing engagement at the Provincial and
  Municipal levels
• FCM Report this year
• Prosperity growing- unequally
• 10-Year plans to end homelessness
• Housing First taking root

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Change in Canadas Housing System?

• Examples of new initiatives
• Federal
• First Nations Market Housing Fund- 300 Million
  On-Reserve
• CMHC Housing Studies Achievement Awards- 5
  10,000 Graduate Scholarships
• Provincial
• Single Room Occupancy buildings being bought up
  by Government of BC
• 10-Year plans to end homelessness in Alberta- US
  Model
• Municipal
• FCM Road Map Released
• Neighbourhood Renewal or Improvement- using
  housing to realize non-housing outcomes- becoming
  more common

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Most Canadians are Well Housed , But-

• 14 of Canadians deemed in Core need
• Not evenly distributed
• 28 of renter Vs. 6.6 of homeowner households
• 24 of aboriginal Vs. 13.5 of non-aboriginal
  households
• 10.5 of Alberta Vs. 39 of Nunavut households
• These are 2001 statistics 2006 statistics are
  pending

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Strong New and Resale Markets

• Some easing in housing starts in 2008
• 215,000 nationally, Vs. 228,000 in 2007
• Existing home sales strong, but forecast to fall
  by about 12
• Price moderation, and possibly some localized
  reductions expected
• Interest rates fairly stable
• One-year rates averaging 6.5-7.25
• Recent downward pressure, but forecast to rise in
  2009

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Shifting Development Patterns

• Single-family detached units down- below 100K in
  2008
• Multi-family units up- first year since 1982 they
  will outnumber single-family units

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Rental Units in Decline

• In 2001 there were 3,908,000 rental units down
  to 3,880,490 in 2006
• Private rental development not deemed profitable
• Condo development dominated in MURB market,
  including conversion of rental units
• Vacancy rate nationally at 2.6, although some
  centres have rates below 1

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Immigration Driving Demand

• Net migration to increase by 6.5 in 2008-
  expected to stay flat for 2009
• Approximately 250,000 immigrants per year
• Most new immigrants settle in rental units
• many later move into home ownership
• Many remain in rental housing

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The Mortgage Lending Industry

• Banking sector purported to be strong
  fundamentally, though affected in a limited way
  by the global credit crunch
• Relatively cautious regulatory environment
• Recently some higher risk lending practices-
  0-down and 40-year term mortgages curtailed

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The Mortgage Lending Industry Contd

• Mortgage lending mainly delivered by six major
  banks and some large lending institutions
• CMHC is the lead mortgage insurer, though the
  market is now more open
• Mortgage backed securities are a smaller and less
  risky component of the market

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The Big Picture

• Canadas Population- 31,613,000
• Highest G8 rate of population growth- 5.4
• 2/3 of net growth due to immigration
• More than 80 of Canadas population lives in
  urban centres
• Canada has over 13,000,000 households
• Approx 680,000, or 5, are social housing

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The Big Picture Contd

• Ownership is the most common tenure
• 68.4 in 2006- a historical peak (66 was the
  previous peak in 1971)
• Approx 60 of owners have a mortgage- highest
  level since 1981
• Condo ownership is rising- approx 4 in 1981 Vs.
  appox 11 today
• Low-income homeownership on the rise
• 38.4 in 2006 Vs. 37.1 in 2001 among the lowest
  income quintile

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Shelter Costs on the Rise

• Shelter costs rising more quickly than overall
  inflation (2002-2008)
• 23.8 shelter cost increase Vs. 15.6 Consumer
  Price Index increase
• Costs rose faster for owners (24.8) than for
  renters (8.1)
• Fuel and water costs rising rapidly
• Electricity 14.6 natural gas 74.5 fuel oil
  52.9 water 46.9 and

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Social Housing

• Provinces and Territories seen to have lead
  responsibility for housing
• Federal government has long history of housing
  intervention, including social housing funding
  and policy roles
• Roles and responsibilities never properly
  defined, so degrees and types of political and
  financial support have vacillated

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Social Housing Contd

• Cost-shared FPT social housing capital and repair
  programs dominate
• Capital- Affordable Housing Initiative
• Repair- Residential Rehabilitation Assistance
  Program
• Either- Housing Trusts
• Provinces/Territories deliver these programs in
  slightly different ways under unique banners

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Social Housing Contd

• Some PTs extend their spending well beyond levels
  required under the cost-sharing agreements, with
  British Columbia and Québec standing as the best
  examples
• Per-unit subsidies for capital development varies
  from ? To ?
• To date, 39,000 affordable housing units have
  been created or preserved under these cost-shared
  programs (exclusive of the Housing Trusts

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Social Housing Contd

• Housing Trusts
• One-time funding of 1.4 billion to meet urgent
  housing need.
• Transfer from the federal to the provincial
  treasuries
• Included 300 Million for off-reserve aboriginal
  housing, and 300 Million for northern housing

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The Growing Municipal Role

• Municipalities are increasingly active in
  addressing housing need and homelessness
• Role formalized in Ontario- delivery
  responsibility downloaded from the province
• Actively seeking ways to encourage and support
  developers- private and non-profit- and service
  providers
• Some direct financing, particularly large cities

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Delivery Agents

• Most social housing is delivered by thousands of
  local non-profit organizations, with some large
  independent, municipal and provincial landlords
• Most are focused on operation of existing units,
  with fewer working to develop new housing

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The Future?

• What will the fate of existing programs be?
• Will long-term planning and investment become the
  norm?
• Will money released as long-term mortgages expire
  be reinvested in social housing?