Demand management an inexorable success story

1
Demand management an inexorable success story?

• Philip Turton

WaterSave Network 10 February 2004
Oxford Thesaurus - the inexorable advance of
science - relentless, unstoppable, inescapable,
inevitable, unavoidable, irrevocable persistent,
continuous, non-stop, steady, interminable,
incessant, unceasing, unremitting, unrelenting.
2
Future drivers in UK - negative

• Loss of champions, new government is
  anti-regulation, indifference of ministers, loss
  of momentum
• Other priorities take over flooding? no
  droughts
• Modelling the environment/sustainability doesnt
  deliver whole life costs give negative messages
• Ownership of water demand management too diffuse
• Networks are lost, stakeholders drift away
• Customers react against interference in their
  lives fuel tax, speeding fines
• Water Framework Directive watered down

3
Future - challenges

• Vote for politicians with environmental vision
• Requires a focus for the subject to ensure water
  conservation is considered in strategies
  actions
• Make sure that the next generation is educated to
  understand and to carry out water conservation
• Clarity out of complexity
• Keep momentum in lean times

4
Demand management development

• By 1994 water demand management was becoming
  established as a subject
• Looking back, the progress over 10 years has been
  remarkable and many developments were not
  foreseen in 1994
• Looking ahead 10 or 20 years will progress
  again surprise us with its speed and scope or
  will it peak?

5
Demand management development

• 1961 to 1994 slides are taken from Demand
  Management and Demand Forecasting course in May
  1994
• 1994 2004 slides use landmark items featured in
  the Demand Management Bulletin (suggestions
  welcome on any omissions)

6
Demand management activity to 1994
NRA strategy
Water use studies
UK sustainability
Using Water Wisely
Malvern/Mansfield studies
?
Leakage report 26
National Metering Trials
CWPU Reports
Roadford Teddington Broad Oak inquiries
Leakage Initiative
Sharp
WRB report
1976 drought
1988-92 drought
1961 1966 1971
1976 1981
1986 1991
1996
7
Demand management activity 1994-2004
Johannesburg Summit
RIO Summit
Water conservation Government Action
Water Resources Plans
?
Waste minimisation
Framework Directive
Economics of DM
Water Bill
Efficient use of water clause
Waste Watchers awards
ENTEC study
RH assoc.
Hippos
NRAs NWDMC
Water Summit
Evaluating Water
New Water Regulations
Better Buildings Summit
Climate change demand for water
Tri-partite Leakage
Managing Leakage
Water Efficiency Awards
Conserving Water in Buildings
Water Technology List
ETBPP/ Envirowise
NRAs Saving Water
WaterSave Network
Saving Water on the Right Track
1989-92 drought
Wand
1995 drought
1991 1993 1995
1997 1999
2001 2003
2005
8
Demand management development

• Information available
• Technology for data collection / analysis
• Technical / economic / methodology
• Political / institutional / framework

Depends on
On reflection some items should have been
included and shown in red as follows
9
Demand management development

• Information available quality
• Technology for data collection / analysis and
  communication
• Technical / economic / social environmental
  methodology
• Political / institutional / stakeholder framework
• Marketing, education communications

10
Information 1961 to 1994
Household surveys
Leakage components
Household zonal metering
Metering experiments
Industrial surveys
SIC classification
Metering trials
Appliance usage
Leakage surveys
Socio-economic
Supply returns
Fylde metering
1961 1966 1971
1975 1981
1986 1991
1996
11
Information 1994 to 2004
OFWAT reports security, water efficiency, leakage
Water efficiency case studies examples
Climate scenarios
Water Resources Plans micro components
DMAs
DoE RD database
Corporate reporting data
Anglians SODCON
Benchmark data
Health data for greywater research
Data on water efficiency studies ENTEC study
1991 1993 1995
1997 1999
2001 2003
2005
12
Technology 1961 to 1994
Manual records
Data logging
Basic programs
Spreadsheets
Customised packages
Mainframe computers
Mini-computers
Personal computers
Manual calculations
Fylde metering
1961 1966 1971
1976 1981
1986 1991
1996
13
Technology 1994 to 2004
Internet development to become universal
Emails become communication mode
Mobile phones
Integrated software
Water efficient appliances - washing machines,
dishwaters, taps, rainwater, greywater,
showerheads
Data logging/computer communications
Increasing power of desktop and portable PCs
1991 1993 1995
1997 1999
2001 2003
2005
14
Mathematical economic methodology 1961 to 1994
Acorn groups
Market survey techniques
Econometric modelling
Cost Benefit analysis
Component modelling
Trend extrapolation
Regression methods
1961 1966 1971
1976 1981
1986 1991
1996
15
Mathematical economic methodology 1994 to 2004
Toolboxes Water Efficiency ENTEC study
ELLs
Economics of demand management
Data mining techniques
Monte Carlo methods
Foresight scenarios and Agency micro-component
forecasting
Supply/demand balance
1991 1993 1995
1997 1999
2001 2003
2005
16
Political institutional framework 1961 to 1994
RIO Summitt
Performance Measures Levels of service
Using Water Wisely
CAPEX restricted
Privatisation
Rateable Value abolished
Regulators NRA OFWAT K
Drought Act
Duty to Conserve?
Engineer/clerk undertakings
Regional Water authorities
EC Ecolables
1961 1966 1971
1976 1981
1986 1991
1996
17
Political institutional framework 1994 to 2004

Water Framework Directive water use analysis,
Sustainable water management
A Good Deal for Water
Water Conservation Government Action
Water Bill - Duties to Conserve
NWDMC
Defra DOE MAFF
Johannesburg Summit
Water Saving Trust rejected
Competition
WaterSave Network
Academic input through EPSRC
Sustainable communities
1991 1993 1995
1997 1999
2001 2003
2005
18
Marketing, education communication 1994 to 2004

Water in the school
Waste Watchers awards
Envirowise water pages
Demand management course - Newcastle
Water UK, SBWWI leakage conferences
Water Efficiency Awards
IWAs Efficiency 2003
Conserving Water in Buildings
WaterSave Network
Saving Water on the Right Track
Demand Management Bulletin
Watermark
Agency Watersave web pages
Water company web pages
1991 1993 1995
1997 1999
2001 2003
2005
19
Essential support national local
Champions
Government, Defra, EU, CEs
Professionals
Research, policy, marketing, lobbying
Customers/users
People, organisations
20
Demand management - stakeholders

• Stakeholders involvement is vital in keeping the
  momentum and reaching all sections and levels of
  society
• Many new (and very keen) stakeholders appear, but
  others can disappear
• Very dependent on a champion and local expertise
• How do you keep track on all stakeholders and
  keep them on board?

21
Government Defra (MAFF), DTI, DFES
Networks Watersave Tri-partite leakage
Manufacturers
Lobby Groups WWF, RSPB, CPRE, NFU/ADAS, UKIA
Local authorities Agenda21, LGMB
Stakeholders
Water companies Water UK, UKWIR
Funded bodies Envirowise, e-generation,
Groundwork, GAP
Research/ Consultants EPSRC, CIRIA, BSRIA, UKWIR,
WRc CEH, ENTEC, Cranfield
Housing Builders, architects, Housebuilders
Federation Sustainable Homes, RHA
Regulators EA (WDM), Ofwat, DWI
22
Demand management - globalisation

• Pressures on world water resources well known and
  publicised
• International development in demand management
  reinforces and develops the subject
• In some regions demand management is an up
  front subject, in others it is lost in terms
  such as integrated water management
• Battle between local water conservation and
  funding for large dams still in the background
  (low tech and high tech solutions)

23
Middle East/ North Africa (MENA)
South America?
Africa Hermanus, water in African cities
Asia Singapore, Asian Bank, India (rainwater),
water in Asian cities
Europe EU-WFD, Plan Bleu, METRON, Spain
(Zaragoza, Seville)
Globalisation
USA/ Canada Waterwiser, Water Sources
Australia ISF, WSAA
UN UNEP, World Bank, WSCC OECD, GWP, WCD
China?
UK WEDC, CEH
World IWA, Efficiency 2003
Lobby groups WWF
24
Future drivers in UK - positive

• Sustainability more vital to survival
• Climate change hot, dry summers
• Housing population pressures
• Efficient water management (Water Bill, Framework
  Directive?)
• Innovation products and computers
• Metering extended

25
Future drivers in UK - negative

• Loss of champions, new government is
  anti-regulation, indifference of ministers, loss
  of momentum
• Other priorities take over flooding? no
  droughts
• Modelling the environment/sustainability doesnt
  deliver whole life costs give negative messages
• Ownership of water demand management too diffuse
• Networks are lost, stakeholders drift away
• Customers react against interference in their
  lives fuel tax, speeding fines
• Water Framework Directive watered down

26
Future - challenges

• Vote for politicians with environmental vision
• Requires a focus for the subject to ensure water
  conservation is considered in strategies
  actions
• Make sure that the next generation is educated to
  understand and to carry out water conservation
• Clarity out of complexity
• Keep momentum in lean times