CAMPAIGN STRATEGY in Congressional Races

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CAMPAIGN STRATEGYin Congressional Races
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How VOTERS Make Decisions
Some Important Facts

• Voters choices are not always highly informed
• only 1 in 10 RECALL names of both candidates in
  incumbent House race (4 of 10 in open seat
  race)
• but RECOGNITION of names is much higher (60
  and 80, respectively) in House races
• This puts challengers at a huge disadvantage
  in terms of NAME I.D. at the start of any
  campaign

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• Many voters use CUES (shortcuts) to decide
• INCUMBENCY or - also called the
  referendum voting referendum on ECON, WAR,
  CORRUPTION
• Presidential COATTAILS or - coattails
  are stronger in unified government coattails
  are start of any surge and decline from
  presidential to midterm election years
• PARTY I.D. the strongest cue, but depending on
  regional party differences, it may not be
  that accurate!

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Campaign Strategies INC

• Activate voters PARTISAN frames research
  Party I.D. as much emotion as logic! IF
  incumbent and district ideological match
  common in races for safe incumbents seats
• Credit Claiming OR Run vs. Congress depend
  s on pro-INC or anti-INC environment
• Ignore the Challenger OR Attack/Define dra
  wing attention to your opponent risks that
  youll give them needed NAME I.D. (Vilsack!)

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Campaign Strategies CHALLAlways an uphill
battle!

• Run against Congress A.K.A. an outsider
  strategy Ex. Mitt Romney arguments focus on
  corruption / incompetence used in years with
  strong anti-Incumbent tide
• Run against incumbent scandal or unpopular
  vote scandals Gary Condit, Mark Foley, Larry
  Craig key votes NAFTA, Medicare cuts,
  immigration! missed votes absent Ex. Obama
  present
• Activate voters Partisan frames only works if
  INC-district mismatch very few!

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Other Strategic Issues

• Polling your district/state
• if you cant afford, use precinct data from last
  race
• benchmark polls / tracking polls
• focus groups audience response N.H. debate

• Message candidate image
• short research no more than 3 ideas
• discipline/consistency talking points
• win valence issues peel off voters w/ wedge
  issues
• credible reflect voters perceptions of
  reality
• Hillary poll-tested McCain maverick

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Micro Targeting

• The ARISTOTLE 360 voter list database
• DEMO
• Discussion

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