Proposed Agenda

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Proposed Agenda

• Briefly recap background to the project and
  achievements to date
• What are scenarios and why were they adopted?
• Introduction to the scenarios
• Presentation of the three scenarios
• Exploring each scenario for initial implications
  for Banks strategies/policies on HIV and AIDS

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Project partnership
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Project Steps and Phasing
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Building and Using Scenarios

• The most important choices we make in the present
  depend on our understanding of current reality
  and the assumptions we hold about the future

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Uncertainty can be paralysing...
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Scenarios vs. Forecasts
Scenarios
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What might happen

• Strategy is about what we should do
• Scenarios explore what might happen

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What are scenarios?
? Credible Challenging Coherent
X Predictions Projections Preferences
stories describing paths to different
futures..combining analysis and intuition
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Five driving forces
International
International
Africa
-
friendly
Africa
-
friendly
Evolution of
Evolution of
Trade
Trade
Diffusion and
Diffusion and
beliefs,
beliefs,
relations?
relations?
alignment of power
alignment of power
National
National
values and
values and
and authority
and authority
meanings
meanings
Community
Community
How will the
How will the
Stigma can
Stigma can
status of
status of
silence be
silence be
women
women
broken?
broken?
change?
change?
Household
Household
How rapidly will
How rapidly will
national economies
national economies
grow?
grow?
Individual
Individual
Cohesion or
Cohesion or
How will resources
How will resources
fragmentation?
fragmentation?
be allocated between
be allocated between
Leveraging of
Leveraging of
different needs?
different needs?
resources and
Role of
key
resources and
Role of
key
external Actors?
external Actors?
capabilities
capabilities
What level of aid
dependency?
dependency?
Growth or
Growth or
erosion of
erosion of
unity and
unity and
Research and development capabilities in Africa?
integration
integration
RD capabilities in Africa?
Generation and
Generation and
application of
application of
knowledge
knowledge
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5 critical, but uncertain drivers of change
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What will most shape the future?
International (regional, global)
National
Research and development capabilities in Africa?
Community
Household
Individual
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Unity and integration

• levels of co-operation and cohesion between
  individuals, communities, nations or regions
• within Africa and between Africa and rest of
  world
• Will there be a sense of global solidarity?
• Will pan-Africanism strengthen?
• Will existing social tensions and divides
  increase?

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Unity and Integration
Cohesion and solidarity
Fragmentation and contestation
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Evolution of beliefs, values and meanings

• secular, traditional and religious belief
  systems
• beliefs about sexuality, illness, life and
  deathshape behaviours
• Will people, groups, organisations and nations,
  recognise and respect other peoples values and
  meanings or will they deny, ignore or fight
  about them?

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Evolution of beliefs, values and meanings
Intolerance and conflicting values
respect and tolerance
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Generation and application of knowledge

• biomedical knowledge
• understanding sexual behaviour
• psychological impacts of living with the
  virus/caring for people
• Will a vaccine be developed?
• What role might traditional healers and medicine
  play?
• Will African countries be able to afford access
  to new knowledge?

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Generation and application of knowledge
competing priorities and limited sharing
Effectively developed and shared
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Resources and capabilities

• not just a question of funding
• but leadership, education, public health
  systems
• increased transaction costs of fragmented
  interventions
• How effectively will HIV and AIDS resources be
  used?
• Will they detract from other development needs?
• Will governments be willing/able to raise
  internal resources?

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Resources and capabilities
coordinated and sustained
fragmented and under-resourced
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Diffusion and alignment of power and authority

• political and military power, economic power,
  gender relations.
• scientific and religious authorities.
• Extent of wider legitimacyuse of coercion,
  incentives
• How will power be shared across African
  societies?
• Who will determine who is entitled to
  development benefits, ARVs, education, jobs?

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Diffusion and alignment of power and authority
widespread legitimacy and shared
coercive and self-interested
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What we assumed to be certain
2004
Diversity
Continent-wide population growth
HIV transmission mechanisms remain same
Biological vulnerability of women persists
Not just an issue for Africa
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The mother of all questions we need to consider

• How is the AIDS crisis perceived and by whom?
• Will the current level of interest in the AIDS
  epidemic be sustained?

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How might the future unfold?
Tough Choices
AO
Broad African development crisis One of many
challenges National efforts to re-build capacity
Crisis perceived and by whom? Incentive and
capacity to respond?
ATAS
Traps and Legacies
Medical crisis, by many Initially more
resources, Uncoordinated efforts
Metaphor for global crisis Major mobilisation of
national and international resources
Times of Transition
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How might the future unfold?