Lysbilde 1

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http//data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/ http//w
ww.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/
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(No Transcript)
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The difference between low lat temp and ENSO
index Temp explodes mid 60s, 80s and 90s. What
else in the climate system exploded early in
those decades? Volcanoes Contrary to the model
results lower stratosphere temp increases after
the initial drop, next page. Indicates that the
cause of the drops is the large volcanic
eruptions. Perhaps by ozone depletion.
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Data taken from AR4WG1 Tech. Summary fig.
TS.7 and http//www.sciencemag.org/ feature/data/1
046907s1_large.jpeg
Stable low or decreasing temp lead to increased
heat content
Stable high give unchanged heat content
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Curves taken from http//isccp.giss.nasa.gov/proje
cts/browse_fc.html
Willis calc Temp drops in the stratosphere so
both upwelling and downwelling LW is reduced ,
only a minor net change (slide
8) Observation Quite stable, seems to follow the
ENSO variation and volcano impact.
Volcano and El Nino?
Willis calc -2,8 W/m2 (2,8 downwelling) Observati
on -2,5 W/m2
La Nina
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Willis calc 1,8 W/m2 Observation 1,6 W/m2
The large drop from the end of 2001 is according
to ISCCP not real, an artifact in the
dataset Same for the LW up, slide 5.
Willis calc 1,5 W/m2 Observation 1,3 W/m2
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In addition Stratospheric temp decrease match
observed, see slide 3. Tropospheric temp
increases less than surface temp, match MSU
measurements showing only a minor temp increase
in high troposphere. Theres a net loss of energy
to the stratosphere and a net gain from the
surface. Albedo apparently does not match, but
since clouds are a major factor it is hard to
compare. LW fluxes between surface and
troposphere is driven by the weather which is
chaotic and show hugh fluctuations, so it makes
no sense comparing in this context.
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http//homepage.mac.com/williseschenbach/.Public/g
lobal_energy_budget.xls More on CA
http//www.climateaudit.org/?p2581 Stratospheric
SW absorption reduced from 2,82 to 2,0 for
simulating the change from 80s to 90s

CHANGE (?) FROM COMPARISON SCENARIO (BELOW) CHANGE (?) FROM COMPARISON SCENARIO (BELOW) CHANGE (?) FROM COMPARISON SCENARIO (BELOW) CHANGE (?) FROM COMPARISON SCENARIO (BELOW)        
  0,0  
Sun 342,0 Check Tot. 342,0 W/m2
? Upwell. rad
CLIMATE -0,20 -0,8 0,0 0,2 -1,1
SENSITIVITY   lt----- ---- 12 92 131
/\ /\ /\
V V C
TOA ?DSW TOA ?DLW TOA ? DR 0,0 -2,8 0,1 0,5 -2,1 0,0 0,1 -0,44
2,8 -1,1 1,8 17 10 27 216 263 2 8 Stratosphere -53,8
5,0 2,8 70,0 70,0 0,0     0 0
/\ /\ /\ /\
2,8 0,1 0,7 -1,1 0,0 0,1
lt----- 315 0 39 308 131 0,0 2 8
/\ /\ /\ /\
V V V C
Tropo. ?DSW Tropo. ?DLW Tropo. ? DR 0,5 0,5 1,1 1,5 -0,9 0,3 0,6 0,2
1,8 0,6 2,4 60 58 352 616 118 20 68 Troposphere -1,6
0,34 19,0 18,5 90,00 0,0 90,0 90,0 90,0 0 0
/\ /\ /\
1,8 1,2 0,7 -0,1 0,3 0,6 0,96
lt----- 197 0 391 308 13 0,0 22 76 2,1
/\ /\ /\
V V V V C
Surface ?DSW Surf. ?DLW Surf. ? DR 0,3 1,5 1,2 0,7 -0,1 0,3 0,6 0,22
1,5 0,6 2,1 30 167 391 308 13 22 76 Surface 15,0
15,0   0,0     22,0 W/m2 76,0 W/m2
Shortwave Longwave Total
Surface Troposphere Stratosphere Sensible Latent
Shortwave Shortwave   Longwave Radiation   Non-Radiative Non-Radiative

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Tropospheric LW absorption increased from 90 to
90,5

CHANGE (?) FROM COMPARISON SCENARIO (BELOW) CHANGE (?) FROM COMPARISON SCENARIO (BELOW) CHANGE (?) FROM COMPARISON SCENARIO (BELOW) CHANGE (?) FROM COMPARISON SCENARIO (BELOW)        
  0,0  
Sun 342,0 Check Tot. 342,0 W/m2
? Upwell. rad
CLIMATE 0,21 0,0 -0,7 -0,4 1,1
SENSITIVITY SENSITIVITY lt----- ---- 12 92 131
/\ /\ /\
V V C
TOA ?DSW TOA ?DLW TOA ? DR 0,0 0,0 -1,1 3,2 2,1 0,0 0,1 0,44
0,0 1,1 1,1 17 10 27 216 263 2 8 Stratosphere -53,8
5,0 2,8 70,0 70,0 0,0     0 0
/\ /\ /\ /\
0,0 -1,8 2,8 1,1 0,0 0,1
lt----- 315 0 39 308 131 0,0 2 8
/\ /\ /\ /\
V V V C
Tropo. ?DSW Tropo. ?DLW Tropo. ? DR 0,0 0,0 3,1 5,6 1,6 0,3 0,6 0,62
0,0 2,2 2,2 60 58 352 616 118 20 68 Troposphere -1,6
0,10 19,0 18,5 90,00 0,0 90,0 90,0 90,0 0 0
/\ /\ /\
0,0 1,2 2,8 -0,6 0,3 0,7 1,01
lt----- 197 0 391 308 13 0,0 22 76 2,2
/\ /\ /\
V V V V C
Surface ?DSW Surf. ?DLW Surf. ? DR 0,0 0,0 1,2 2,8 -0,6 0,3 0,7 0,23
0,0 2,2 2,2 30 167 391 308 13 22 76 Surface 15,0
15,0   0,0     22,0 W/m2 76,0 W/m2
Shortwave Longwave Total
Surface Troposphere Stratosphere Sensible Latent
Shortwave   Longwave Radiation   Non-Radiative Non-Radiative

The only match with observations is increased
surface temp