IDENTIFYING SHORTFALLS IN DEMOCRATIC GOVERNANCE

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IDENTIFYING SHORTFALLS IN DEMOCRATIC GOVERNANCE A
BOTTOM UP APPROACH PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE
FBA PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE Director, Centre
for the Study of Public Policy University of
Aberdeen www.abdn.ac.uk/cspp Central European
University-Freedom House Conference Budapest,
10-11 October 2008
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2. WHAT ARE THE EU'S COPENHAGEN
STANDARDS? ?Democracy ?Rule of law ?Human
rights and protection of minorities ?Functioning
market economy ?Bureaucracy can administer
acquis communitaire CRITERIA
ARE ?Consensual ideals ?Multiple ?Decided
by external elites
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3. THE STANDARD OF PUBLIC OPINION A bottom
up view from the grassroots ? vs. A top down
view from Brussels Realistic
differences ? vs. Consensual ideals
Quantified, reliable ? vs. Imprecise DATA
CSPP New Europe Barometer/ New Russia
Barometer THE THRESHOLD Do citizens of an
applicant country evaluate their system in terms
no worse than that of citizens of the
lowest-ranking Newly Accepted Member State?
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4. POPULAR EVALUATION OF DEMOCRACY

Bulg Rom Cro
Ukr Threshold Ukr Rus enlargement Q.
(Current status) Here is a scale ranging from a
low of 1 to a high of 10 1 means complete
dictatorship and 10 means complete democracy.
Where would you place our country at the present
time? (mean) Mean score 5.1 5.1 5.5 5.4
4.7 5.2 Slovakia Q. (Expectations) Where
would you expect our country to be in five years
time? Mean score 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.5 6.0 6.5
Latvia (percentage) Q. (Vulnerability) Some
people think this country would be better
governed if parliament were closed down and all
parties were abolished. How likely to you think
this is to happen in the next few years?
Unlikely 89 87 87 77 80 83 Poland
Might happen 11 13 13 23 20 17

Source Centre for
the Study of Public Policy, New Europe Barometer.
2004/5.
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5. POPULAR EVALUATION OF THE RULE OF LAW AND
BUREAUCRACY

Bulg Rom Cro Ukr Threshold Ukr
Rus enlargement (percentages) Q. (Corruption)
How widespread do you think bribe-taking and
corruption are among public officials in this
country? (percent) Most or all
corrupt 88 85 78 92 93 82 Lithuania Less
than half, few 12 15 22 8 7 18 Q.
(Equality of treatment) Do you think people like
yourself are treated equally and fairly by
government? (percent) Yes 19 28 45 15 10
19 Hungary No 81 72 55 85 90 81

Source
Centre for the Study of Public Policy, New Europe
Barometer. 2004/5.
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6. POPULAR EVALUATION OF HUMAN RIGHTS

Bulg Rom Cro Ukr
Threshold Ukr Rus enlargement (perce
ntages) Q. (Freedom) Compared to our former
system, would you say our current system is
better, much the same or worse than the old
system in terms of everybody having the right to
say what they think? (percent) Freer than
before 76 92 74 81 69 63 Slovakia Much
the same 11 6 19 15 24 26 Less free
13 2 7 4 7 11 Q. (Human rights)
How much respect do you think this country's
government has for individual human rights?
(percent) Some, a lot 45 30 51 31 14 42
Czech R Not much, none 55 70 49 69 86
58

Source Centre for the Study of Public Policy,
New Europe Barometer. 2004/5.
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7. POPULAR EVALUATION OF FUNCTIONING OF ECONOMY


Bulg Rom Cro Ukr Threshold Ukr
Rus enlargement (percentages) Q. (Official
economy enough) Do you get enough from your main
source of income to buy what you really need?
Yes 15 37 48 28 25 20 Slovakia
No 85 63 52 72 75 80 Q. (Coping with a
portfolio of economies) In the past year, has
your household Saved, just got by 68 56 na 66
71 59 Poland Borrowed,
spent 32 44 na 34 29 41 savings


Source Centre for the Study of Public Policy,
New Europe Barometer. 2004/5.
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8. FOUR DIMENSIONS OF QUALITIES OF
GOVERNANCE Rule law Democracy Market Vulner'
le (Factor analysis) Variance explained
28.1 12.5 10.4 10.0 Eigen value 2.81
1.25 1.04 1.00 (Factor scores
decimals omitted) Corruption -73 -04 -06 -10 Res
pect human rights 73 21 12 -13 Fair
treatment 62 20 25 07 Honest elections
61 11 -01 -39 Democratic now 12 86
00 -01 Democratic in 5 years 17 83 02
05 Coping multiple econ. 02 05 84 -06 Earns
living wage 26 08 73 -00 Likely Parl't
suspended -01 -06 -05 92 Free to speak 10
44 15 -19 Variance accounted for 61.1 per
cent

Source Centre for the Study of
Public Policy, New Europe Barometer. 2004/5.
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Figure 1. DIFFERENTIATING POST-COMMUNIST REGIMES
Mediterranean X New EU Post-Soviet
Perception of Corruption Index
Sve,Est
Spain
Cyprus
Portugal
Malta
Cze, Hun
Svk, Lat
Ita
Greece
Lith, Pol
Freedom House rating
Geo
Rom
Bul
Arm
Mol
Ukr
Kaz, Rus,Taj, Azer
Bel
Tur, Uzb
Kyr
Sources Perception of corruption index
Transparency International, 2008 Freedom House,
2007.