Met Councils Housing Needs Formula

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Met Councils Housing Needs Formula Local
Government Response
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• 1976 Land Use Planning Act requires cities in
  region to prepare a housing element in
  comprehensive plan to include
• standards, plans and programs for providing
  adequate housing to meet existing and projected
  local and regional housing needs
• 1995 Livable Communities Act
• Negotiated housing goals not need-based
• Covers 1995-2010

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Housing Needs for 2010 - 2020

• Return to needs-based planning
• A land planning exercise
• Newly-constructed affordable housing
• Designed to guide land development

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Step 1Regional growth projections

• 166,547 new households between 2010-2020
• City level growth forecasts

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Step 2Growth in low-income population

• Proportion of growth consisting of low-income
  households
• 38, or 64,100 households

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Step 3Private sector adjustment

• Estimate the number of units that will filter
  down and become affordable, providing housing to
  new low-income households
• 20,300 new low-income households will be housed
  in such units
• Units already exist
• From The Next Decade of Housing in Minnesota

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Step 4 Calculate need for newly constructed
affordable housing units

• 64,100 (new low-income households)
• -20,300 (units already existing that will
  filter down)
• 2,200 (5 vacancy rate adjustment)
• 5,000 (units needed to house the homeless)
• 51,000 TOTAL NEED
• (30.6 of regional HH growth)

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Step 5Apply 30.6 to city-level forecast

• Uniform allocation of affordable housing need

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Step 6Adjust for low-wage proximity

• Calculate ratio of low-wage jobs to low-wage
  residents
• If ratio greater than 1.0, need increases

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Step 7 Adjust for existing distribution of
affordable housing units

• Cities with more than 30 of units affordable
  decrease their need
• (30.6 is the overall metro-area estimate of
  need)

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Step 8Adjust for availability of transit service

• Cities with high transit service receive a 20
  boost in need number
• No adjustment for cities with low transit service
• Cities with no transit service receive a 20
  reduction in need number

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Step 9 Final adjustment so that the sum of all
city-level need numbers 51,000

• 51,000 is total regional need
• Previous adjustments had cumulative effect of
  increasing that number
• Final adjustment (K2) needed to bring total back
  to 51,000

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The Formula

• Citys affordable housing need
• (HH growthc .306)
• (1 (J/Wc - 1) (.3 ExAffHsgc) (TAc)) K2

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Sample results

• Blaine 1,267
• Circle Pines 13
• Ramsey 1,402
• Chanhassen 1,301
• New Germany 4
• Lakeville 2,288
• Apple Valley 1,324
• Eagan 530
• Bloomington 627

• Brooklyn Park 1,590
• Edina 212
• Excelsior 29
• Minneapolis 4,088
• Arden Hills 288
• Maplewood 333
• Saint Paul 2,625
• Jordan 37
• Shakopee 2,105

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Need-based affordable housing goals, 2010-2020
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Assessment

• Vast improvement over LCA
• Redistributes effort away from the more
  affordable northern communities and toward the
  southwest

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Comparison of LCA goals (projected forward to
2020) and needs-based goals
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Assessment (cont.)

• Assumes filtering down
• Ignores demolition and filtering up
• Definition of low-income uses income for
  household size of 4 average household size in
  region is lt 3
• Step 6 adjustment assumes all low-wage workers
  live in affordable housing Councils own figures
  say 44 do not

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Assessment (cont.)

• Addresses need for affordable housing due to
  population growth between 2010-2020
• Current estimate 170,000 households lack
  affordable housing in region, 20,000 more will
  lack affordable housing by 2010
• Total unmet need of 190,000 in 2010
• LUPA
• adequate housing opportunities to meet existing
  and projected local and regional housing needs

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Assessment (cont.)

• New formula will address only 20 to 25 of the
  actual need for affordable housing in the region

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How will cities respond?

• Survey of 31 suburban communities with the
  largest affordable housing need numbers according
  to formula
• Andover Apple Valley Blaine Bloomington
• Brooklyn Pk Burnsville Champlin Chanhassen
• Chaska Columbia Hts Coon Rapids Cottage Grove
• Eagan Eden Prairie Edina Elko
• Farmington Forest Lake Hastings Lake Elmo
• Lino Lakes Medina Minnetonka Minnetrista
• Oakdale Orono Robbinsdale Rosemount
• Savage St. Louis Pk Woodbury

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Have you seen the Met Councils recent report on
Determining Affordable Housing Need in the Twin
Cities? Are you aware of what your communitys
need level is, according to the report?
Not aware of need level 19 (6) Aware of need
level 81 (25) n31
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What is your reaction to these goals? Do they
seem high or low or about right for your
community? Do they seem feasible for you to meet?

• Satisfaction with goals
• Not satisfied 60 (9)
• Satisfied 40 (6)
• n15
• Perception of levels
• Low 4 (1)
• About right 26 (7)
• High 70 (19)
• n27
• Feasibility
• Not feasible 67 (14)
• Feasible 33 (7)
• n21

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Do you keep a data base tracking the supply of
low- and moderate-income housing?

• No 70 (21)
• Yes 30 (9)

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Will your community be using the need number
established in that report as the affordable
housing target in your comprehensive plan update?

• No 10 (3)
• Not sure (may not use because need number is not
  desirable) 45 (14)
• Not sure (may not use because of a lack of
  factual knowledge) 10 (3)
• Yes 35 (11)

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What are the problems you foresee, or the
obstacles, to meeting these goals?

• 1. Market forces/cost of land 65 (20)
• 2. Lack of available land 37 (11)
• 3. Lack of funding 32 (10)
• 4. Political will 23 (7)
• 5. Restrictions on eminent domain 6 (1)
• 6. Other (affordable owner units, access to
  transit/jobs, lack of staff, red tape,
  low-density development, clean-up costs for
  redevelopment, construction standards) 71 (22)

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What do you think is going to be needed for your
city to achieve its affordable housing goals?

• Funding 37 (11)
• Education/political will 23 (7)
• Available land 7 (2)
• Rezoning7 (2)
• Work of non-profits/CDCs 3 (1)
• Other (affordable housing program, staff
  resources, change in market, time, dialogue) 43
  (13)

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If there were state and federal funds available
for affordable housing production, could you meet
your affordable housing goals?

• No 14 (4)
• Not sure 34 (14)
• Yes 48 (14)

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In your opinion, is there anything in your zoning
ordinances, permitting processes, or other
requirements that discourages or prevents adding
to the supply of low-moderate income housing?

• No 33 (9)
• Yes 67 (18)
• n27
• Deterrents
• Lot size requirements (low-density zoning) 53
  (9)
• Design guidelines 35 (6)
• Square foot minimums 24 (4)
• Lack of funding 12 (2)
• Accessory apts. not allowed 6 (1)
• Taxes 6 (1)
• Red tape/length of approval process 6 (1)

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Please indicate whether and how much each of
the following local practices limit the
development of low-moderate income housing in
your community.
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More analysis to come

• Data on specific programs used and their
  assessments of those program
• Comparison to data collected in 2001
• Cross-tabulations
• Add interview information to Citizen Guides