WP2: Energy Technology Perspective

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WP2 Energy Technology Perspective CHEN
Wenying Tsinghua University Oct 23, 2008
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Programme of Work -- Future energy service
demands -- Technology assessment -- China MARKAL
model update and national scenarios analysis to
estimate CCSs potential role to mitigate carbon
emission -- Future energy demand and big
potential point emission sources in Jilin
provinces
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2.1 Future energy service demands -- Analysis on
Chinas historical energy service demand/activity
level -- OECD countries historical energy
service demand -- Relationship between energy
service demand and GDP, population, and etc. --
Chinas future energy service demand projection

• High energy intensive industrial sector
• Transportation sector

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Energy service demand projection results
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2.2 Technology assessment -- Coal-based
conversion technologies -- High energy intensive
industrial sectors technologies -- Technologies
with carbon capture
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Coal-based conversion technologies

• Coal combustion will be mainly used for power
  production high efficiency and clean
• SC/USC, CFB, post-combustion CO2 capture
• Coal gasification will be used to produce various
  products chemicals, power and liquid fuel
  scaling up, polygenenration
• Entrained flow coal gasification
• IGCC/polygeneration, Pre-combustion CO2 capture
• Coal liquefaction will be developed as strategic
  technology reserve for energy security
• DCL/IDCL
• coal to methanol, DME, MTO/MTP

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Power generation rapid increasing capacity,
scaling-up of single unit and steadily improved
efficiency
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Current status of coal-based conversion
technologies
-- Local SC/USC/CFB providers received a lot of
new orders -- The most promising coal
gasification technologies seems to be entrained
flow bed, and China has developed some of its own
technologies -- IGCC/polygeneration is regarded
as promising clean coal technology in China, and
more than 10 demo projects are proposed in
China -- Commercial scale demonstration projects
of coal liquefaction will start operation this
year, and the production capacity of coal-based
methanol increases rapidly with its growing
market for oil alternatives
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• Advanced Technology Assessment
• CCS technologies Pre-, Post-, Oxy-f
• Advanced technologies for intensive energy sector
• Data sources
• IEAs Energy Technology Perspectives
• IPCC SR CCS
• Industry sources
• Academic literature
• UK MARKAL

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High energy intensive industrial sectorSteel
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2.4 Jilin Scenario (preliminary)
-- Final energy consumption is projected to
increased from 52Mtce in 2006 to 122Mtce by 2030,
and coal share will decrease from 52 to 38. --
Final energy consumption is projected to
increased from 50 Mtce in 2006 to 140Mtce by
2030, and coal share will decrease from 77 to
70.
Primary energy demand in JILIN, mtce
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Next stage -- Improve current research
results -- Identify large potential emission
sources in Jilin
-- Input both energy service demand projection
results and technology assessment results into
China MARKAL model -- Generate future energy and
carbon emission scenarios -- Assess CCSs role to
mitigate carbon emission
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Thank you for your attention!