NOAA-CIRES CDC GOALS

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Introduction
Climate Future Science and Policy Randall M.
Dole NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center
Mountain Climate Sciences Symposium Lake Tahoe,
CA May 25, 2004
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A Key Symposium Goal
Key Symposium Goal

• Develop support for long-term, interdisciplinary,
  integrated climate and climate-related research
  and monitoring in the western mountains.

How might this accomplished in the present
budget environment?
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Suggested strategies for success
Strategies for Success
1) Make explicit connections to goals in the
Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) strategic
plan.

• The guiding document for federal research on
  climate and related environmental issues for the
  next decade.
• Responds to Administrations request to provide
  the best possible scientific information to
  support public discussion and decision-making on
  climate-related issues.
• Describes the overall strategy for developing
  knowledge of climate and related environmental
  and human systems, and for encouraging
  application of this knowledge.

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CCSP Goals
CCSP Goals
Overarching question How will variability and
potential change in climate and related systems
affect climate and related systems and our way of
life? CCSP Goals related to MCSS

• Improve knowledge of the Earths past and present
  climate and environment
• 4) Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of
  different natural and managed ecosystems and
  human systems to climate and related global
  changes.
• 5) Explore the uses and identify the limits of
  evolving knowledge to manage risks and
  opportunities related to climate variability and
  change.

Core Approach Develop improved science-based
resources for decision- making.
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Research Elements
Research Elements
CCSP Research elements especially relevant to
the MCSS

• Climate Variability and Change (chapter 4).
• Global water cycle (chapter 5).
• Land use/land cover change (chapter 6).
• Ecosystems (chapter 8).
• Human contributions and responses (chapter 9).
• Decision support resources development (chapter
  11).
• Observing and monitoring the climate system
  (chapter 12).

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Example of issues, one element
A few examples
From the Climate Variability and Change chapter,
some MCSS-related issues
Potential for changes in extreme events at
regional to local scales. Possibility of abrupt
change. Development of approaches to inform
decision-making.

• CCSP High-priority synthesis products
• State-of-knowledge of thresholds of changes that
  could lead to sudden changes in some ecosystems
  and climate-sensitive resources.
• Relationship between observed ecosystem changes
  and climate change.
• Use and limitations of observations, data,
  forecasts, and other projections for selected
  sectors and regions.

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Consider focusing issues
2) Consider focusing issues

• Example The Western Drought
• The western U.S. has been experiencing a severe,
  sustained, large-scale drought over the past
  several years. This drought has attracted
• Intense media attention, including from major
  national media outlets.
• Raised grave management concerns. There is
  discussion of the possibility for the first-ever
  call on the Colorado River under the terms of
  the Colorado River Compact.
• We know that a large majority of the water supply
  in the western U.S. is deposited in the form of
  snow at high elevations and later released in
  snow melt, but observations of this natural
  storage, and how it may be changing, are woefully
  inadequate.

Dillon Reservoir, Colorado
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Severe Hydrologic Shortages

• Lake Powell is at 42 capacity
• Lake levels have dropped 120 feet
• Reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 62
  of capacity
• Net flow of water for WY 2004 to date is 58 of
  average.

Lake Powell Water Level (ft)
Glen Canyon Dam
Filled1980
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Potential Western water supply crises and
conflicts by 2025 (USBR)
US Bureau of Reclamation analysis of potential
water supply crises and conflicts by the year
2025 based on a combination of technical and
other factors, including population trends and
potential endangered species needs for
water. Note There is an underlying assumption
of a statistically stationary climate.
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What are Observed Western Climate Trends?
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Observed and modeled SW winter temperature trends
Observed trends are consistent with trends
obtained in climate models forced by observed GHG
changes. However, models forced by observed SST
over this period also show warming, so both
anthropogenic and natural factors are likely
contributing.
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Western U.S. Streamflow Trends
From Stewart, Cayan, and Dettinger (2004)
There is a marked trend toward an earlier melt
out and earlier peak flows throughout almost all
of the West, consistent with a winter warming
trend. Such warming increases evaporation,
extends the growing season, and likely also
increases the demand for water resources.
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U.S. West climate trends projectionsfrom
transient-forced runs (8 models, 18 runs)
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Projected temperature and precipitation trends
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What are some potential implications?
What would a warmer future climate imply for the
mountainous west and adjacent regions, e.g., for
water resources, ecosystems, recreation?

• A few possibilities
• Less efficient water storage and release.
• Increased vegetative stress - species, ecosystem
  losses.
• Longer growing season, increased evaporation,
  and increased demand for already scarce water
  resources.

1928
2000
Western fires, 2002
Retreat of South Cascade Glacier, Washington
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Other suggestions

• 3) Make connections to other ongoing priorities,
  such as natural disaster reduction, observations.
  Examples Drought, COOP modernization (both have
  NOAA, USDA attention).
• 4) Focus on key regional issues.
• 5) Consider multiple stressors.
• Above all, aim toward end products that improve
  decision support and demonstrate value to
  taxpayers.

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The End
The End