NOAA-CIRES CDC GOALS

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Introduction
NOAA Briefing for the Western Congressional
Caucus Providing New National Capabilities to
Anticipate, Prepare for, and Respond to Drought
Dust storm during the 1930s Drought
North Platte river, May 22, 2002 Mean flow - 1310
cfs, Observed - 0
Randall M. Dole, NOAA Research Martin Hoerling,
NOAA Research Douglas Lecomte, NOAA National
Weather Service September 27, 2004
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Why should we care?
A bottom-line issue Although determining the
full economic impacts of drought is difficult,
annual losses in the USA are estimated to be
several billion dollars.
1988 Drought(61.9B)
2002 Drought(10.0B)
1980 Drought(48.4B)
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Why now 1
Why Now? The Western Drought

Whiskey is for Drinking and Water is for
Fighting - Mark Twain. Water is life - Wallace
Stegner.

• The severe drought gripping the western U.S. has
  raised
• Public and media attention
• Management concerns including the possibility for
  the first-ever call on the Colorado River under
  the terms of the Colorado River Compact.
• There are new concerns for the sustainability of
  western U.S. water resources to meet growing
  demands
• Does this drought foretell climate change?

Dillon Reservoir, 2002
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New Mandates for Science Information

• President Bush directs that research activities
  provide the best possible scientific information
  to support public discussion and decision making
  on climate issues
• (US Climate Change Science Program CCSP,
  July, 2003).
• The U.S. CCSP identifies drought as a key science
  challenge.
• Drought Preparedness Acts have been introduced
  in the House and Senate.
• Western Governors propose a National Integrated
  Drought Information System.
• Department of Interior identifies potential for
  water supply crises by 2025

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Briefing outline
NOAAs Role

• To deliver sound scientific information to meet
  the needs of the public, resource managers and
  policy-makers in preparing for and responding to
  drought.
• Overview Questions
• Is the present drought unprecedented?
• What are causes for this drought? ? natural
  variability ? climate change
• What is the prognosis for western drought?
• What is NOAA doing to improve national
  capabilities to better anticipate and prepare
  for droughts?
• Following the overview, we will provide an open
  forum to respond to any additional information
  needs or questions you have regarding drought.

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Is the Current Western Drought Unprecedented?
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A Hydrological Drought

• Lake Powell is at 40 capacity
• Lake levels have dropped 120 feet
• Reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 60
  of capacity
• Net flow of water for WY 2004 to date is 58 of
  average.

Lake Powell Water Level (ft)
Glen Canyon Dam
Filled1980
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5-Year Precipitation Deficits
15 to 20 inches in some areas
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PDSI time series -area coverage
Palmer Drought Index- area in severe drought
Western U.S. 1895-2004
1930s Dust bowl
2002
Colorado River Compact Signed
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Reconstructions of Western Drought
Droughts over the past two millennia dwarf
anything in the modern instrumental record.
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U.S. Drought Monitor.
U.S. Drought Monitor Derived by synthesizing
various information sources (NOAA CPC, NCDC, with
USDA and NDMC)
A large scale product. Agricultural
(A), hydrological (H) designate primary impacts
(drought types). Manifold indirect impacts, e.g.,
on recreation, energy production, water quality,
fire risk, air quality, ecosystems, endangered
species.
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What are the causes for this drought ?
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Western U.S. Precipitation1950 to 2004
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Role of Oceans in DroughtSouthwest U.S.
El Niño
La Niña
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What is the Prognosis for Western Drought?
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NOAA Extended Precipitation Outlook
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NOAA Seasonal Drought Outlook
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Likelihood for Recovery of Precipitation Deficits
by February 2005
Odds are less than 10 based on past data
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Trends in Western Climate
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Western Precipitation Variations1950 to 2004
No significant precipitation trend - if anything,
slightly wetter. Strong interannual to decadal
variability, oceans play a major role.
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Sources for Western Temperature Trends
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Trends in Western Stream Flow

• From Stewart, Cayan, and Dettinger (2004)
• Trend towards an earlier melt out and earlier
  peak flows throughout the Western US are
  consistent with a warming trend.
• Changes in seasonal cycle have potentially
  important implications for water management. Both
  supply and demand are affected.

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Climate Model Projections for Western U.S.

• Regional projections have less confidence than
  global projections
• High model consistency on warming, precipitation
  highly variable

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What is NOAA doing to Improve National
Capabilities to Better Anticipate and Prepare for
Droughts?
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Drought NIDIS
National Integrated Drought Information System
(NIDIS)
Creating a National Drought Early Warning System

• Goal To enable the Nation to move from a
  reactive to a more proactive approach to
  droughts.
• The Western Governors Association developed the
  2004 report in close partnership with NOAA. Many
  others contributed.
• Recent advances in understanding and predicting
  droughts makes the NIDIS Goal feasible. More must
  be done to provide a fully useful drought
  decision-support system.

www.westgov.org/wga/publicat/nidis.pdf
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NIDIS Framework for Enhanced Decision Support
Customer defined measures of drought
Research
Prediction
Monitoring
Integrating Tools
Better informed decision making at state, local
and individual levels
ImpactMitigation
ImprovedResponses
ProactivePlanning
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Key NIDIS Components
Key NIDIS Components

• Improving and Integrating Observations and Data
  Systems
• Developing New Tools for analysis and decision
  support.
• Coordinating research and science.
• Improving information dissemination and feedback.

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NOAA Programs Supporting the NIDIS

• NOAA Climate Services
• Contributions from all NOAA Line Offices, Joint
  Institutes, Regional Integrated Science
  Assessments, Regional Climate Centers, State
  Climatologists
• NOAA Operational Monitoring and Outlooks
• Weekly Drought Monitor and Monthly Drought
  Outlook
• NOAA Research
• Applied climate research to understand and
  predict drought onset, duration, and impacts
• NOAA Cooperative Observer Network Modernization
• Implementation of a National Mesonet would
  provide near real time climate, weather, and
  water observations for resource and emergency
  management

Current network has poorest coverage in the
West, especially at high elevations where most
precipitation falls as snow.
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New water 2025
Water is the lifeblood of the American West and
the foundation of its economy(Water 2025
Preventing Crises and Conflict in the West)
Existing water supplies are, or will be
inadequate to meet the water demands of people,
cities, farms, and the environment NOAA
monitoring, research, and forecast products will
provide the nation with new capabilities to
anticipate, to prepare for, and to respond to
these complex water issues.
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The End
The End
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NOAA Seasonal Climate Outlook
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What are some potential implications?
What would a warmer future climate imply for the
mountainous west and adjacent regions, e.g., for
water resources, ecosystems, recreation?

• A few possibilities
• Less efficient water storage and release.
• Increased vegetative stress - species, ecosystem
  losses.
• Longer growing season, increased evaporation,
  and increased demand for already scarce water
  resources.

1928
2000
Western fires, 2002
Retreat of South Cascade Glacier, Washington
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Drought Early Warning through Ocean Monitoring
TOA/Triton Moored Array and Argo Floats
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NA Drought Monitor
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Drought Monitor Inputs
CPC Daily Soil Model
USGS Streamflow
Palmer Drought Index

30-day Precip.
USDA Soil Ratings
Satellite Veg Health
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Average Annual Rainfall
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Drought - Future Pressures


US Bureau of Reclamation analysis of potential
water supply crises and conflicts in the western
US by the year 2025 based on a combination of
technical and other factors, including population
trends and potential endangered species needs for
water. Note There is an underlying assumption
of a statistically stationary climate.