Climate Change Where does NOAA fit in?

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Climate ChangeWhere does NOAA fit in?

• VADM Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr. USN (Ret.)
• Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and
  AtmosphereNOAA Administrator
• October 12, 2007

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State of Climate Science

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
  Reports
• Noted warming of the climate system is
  unequivocal
• Most of the observed increase in globally
  averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century
  is very likely due to the observed increase in
  anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations
• Report found it likely human-induced warming
  has had an influence on physical and biological
  systems
• Impacts will increase with increasing temperature

• Areas of Uncertainty
• Sensitivity of global systems to increased GHG
  emissions
• Impacts of identified regional climate changes
• The timing of impacts and the rate of changes
• The magnitude of changes and impacts at specific
  scales

Research is crucial to understanding the impacts
of climate change and guiding public policy
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NOAAs Role

• NOAAs Vision
• An informed society that uses a comprehensive
  understanding of the role of the oceans, coasts
  and atmosphere in the global ecosystem to make
  the best social and economic decisions
• NOAAs Mission
• To understand and predict changes in the Earths
  environment and conserve and manage coastal and
  marine resources to meet our nations economic,
  social and environmental needs

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From Climate Observations to Decision Support

• Climate Observations
• NOAA is the U.S. focal point for operational
  environmental observations, for which climate is
  a large part
• We continue to develop strong observation and
  data management infrastructure
• Satellites
• Ocean observations
• Land observations
• Assure integration of these systems

• Decision Support
• NOAA produces a broad suite of climate
  information and tools to help business, industry,
  and governments plan for and adapt to future
  climate and inform the decision making process

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Supporting Adaptation

• The global climate will continue to change for
  several decades, regardless of any mitigating
  efforts we make now
• The lag in the climate system makes adaptation
  essential-so what can NOAA do
• Operational challenges of higher resolution
  improved predictability
• Practical challenges of understanding climate
  impacts at local and regional scales
• Integrating these data into information that is
  useful for decision making

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ChallengesImprove Model Resolution
200 kmnow
50 kmtarget
4 kmobserved
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Challenges El Niño Prediction

• El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Observing
  System
• Computer models are starting to show skill in
  forecasting tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures
  one to two years in advance
• Potential for hundreds of millions of dollars in
  benefits to the US economy.

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ChallengesEarly Warning Systems Example
National Integrated Drought Information System
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ChallengesImprove Observing SystemsGlobal Earth
Observing System of Systems
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Building a Climate Service

• A Climate Service is

• A Climate Service would

• A comprehensive system that monitors, collects
  and integrates
• Information on the key indicators of climate
• Develops credible, usable, accessible and timely
  assessments and predictions of climate,
• Trends, conditions, projections and impacts
  that contributes to the welfare of the nation

• Provide the scientific basis for
• data, information, and products on climate
  trends, conditions, predictions and impacts, at
  local, regional, State, national to global scales
• communication of climate information and risks to
  decision- and policy- makers
• improved coordination and use of existing
  multi-agency prediction and assessment programs

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Climate EducationNOAA is moving forward

• NOAA has just received authority to conduct
  science education in all mission areas through
  the America Competes Act
• Partnership with the American Association for the
  Advancement of Science (AAAS) to update and
  expand national climate science education
  standards
• Provide national leadership for the International
  Polar Year education campaign
• Support climate survey to monitor public opinions
  on climate
• Promote Science On a Sphere and other spherical
  displays to increase climate understanding

Students from the Portsmouth City school system
visit an installation of Science On a Sphere at
the Nauticus maritime science center as part of a
field trip facilitated by Hampton University
through an award from NOAAs Office of Education.
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Questions?
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Back-Up Slides
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Climate Change Science Program

• Worlds largest Climate Change Scientific
  Research Program
• 1.7 Billion in 2006 (10.7 Billion 2001-2006)
  1.7 Billion requested for 2007
• Includes 13 Federal Departments, Agencies, and
  White House Offices
• DOC, DOD, DOE, DOI, DOS, DOT, EPA, HHS, NASA,
  NSF, OMB, OSTP, USAID, USDA, Smithsonian, CEQ
• Goals
• Improve knowledge of the Earths past and present
  climate variability and improve understanding of
  the causes of observed variability and change.
• Improve quantification of the forces bringing
  about changes in the Earths climate
• Reduce uncertainty in projections of how climate
  systems may change
• Understand the sensitivity and adaptability
  ecosystems to climate
• Inform policymakers and manage risks related to
  climate variability and change

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CCSP Assessment Activities

• CCSP agencies and scientists participate in a
  wide range of international assessments
• 21 CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products
• Scenarios of GHG Emissions and Atmospheric
  Concentrations and Review of Integrated Scenario
  Development and Application
• SAP 4.5 Effects of Climate Change on Energy
  Production and Use in the United States
• IPCC
• 120 U.S. scientists are IPCC authors 15 are
  Review Editors
• US Co-Chairs and Hosts IPCC WG I
• WMO/UNEP Ozone assessments (234 US contributors
  to 2006 report)
• Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment (87 US
  contributors to 2004 report)
• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (219 US
  contributors to 2005 report)