WTO Doha round

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WTO Doha round

• Andres Oopkaup

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Estonian Government policy at glance

• Extremely liberal
• Total and fast privatisation
• Low or non existent support level
• Modest rural support including some for
  agriculture
• Emphases on green box type support
• FTA-s
• Little support for marketing

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Estonian trade conditions before joining EU

• Competitiveness, comparative advantage
• price level (farm gate, inputs)
• quality and product range
• structures (primary, processing, trade)
• Outside conditions
• tariffs (economical and political)
• non tariff measures (hygiene and technical
  requirements)

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OECD-s view to global trade development.

• Significant reduction of import tariffs
• Abolition of export subsidies
• Abolition of trade distorting domestic support
  (amber box)
• Direct payments - fully decoupled

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"SCHEDULES" Fixing commitment that were agreed
and surveiliance
WISH to CHANGE TRADING ENVIRONMENT URA commitment
MODALITIES Precise numbers and formulas for
commitments
TARGETS, AMBITIONS
HONG-KONG (december 2005) Partial agreement that
confirms willingness to move forward
CANCUN 2003 FAILURE
2006 July - modalitiesFAILURE
DOHA MINISTERIAL 2001 DECLARATION
SEATTLE MINISTERIAL 1999 FAILURE
Time
2007 New Budget for 2007-2013
2000 BERLIN AGENDA BUDGET - enlargement DIRECT
PAYMENTS vs PRICE SUPPORT
2003 LUXEMBOURG CAP reform Decoupling
GENF 2004, July agreement, EC conditional
willingness to abolish ES
2007 EC Proposals for health check
MODALITIES To be agreed by 2008
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Topics to be negotiated (single undertaking)

• Agriculture (MA, ES, DS)
• Non-agricultural products trade (NAMA)
• Trade in services
• Rules (incl fisheries)
• Development agenda (package)
• Trade and Environment
• Trade simplification

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Relative value of trade deficit, data of
1995-1998,
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Main subjectc for AG negociatrions

• Export Subsidies all types of Export Subsidies
  scrapped by 2013
• Domestic Support
• Market Access

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Different MA formulas
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Complications for EC short termEstonian view

• Substance and tactics
• EC CAP reform has been implemented, but this has
  been taken as granted in WTO
• Competitors for us, are increasing support to
  agriculture (incl US)
• Potential problems with green box
• Some of WTO MSs do not agree with EC internal
  challenges environment, animal welfare, etc
• Dilemma on sensitive products EC positions have
  to be adjusted but balance between MSs
  politically extremely sensitive!
• EC member states have offensive and defensive
• Agriculture is not the only subject for EC
  balance between AG and NAMA and other negotiation
  subjects
• industrial products and services,
• rules
• environment (incl trade in environmental goods)

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DDA development possible implications in case of
negative results

• Globally DDA negotiations will continue in XX
  years
• Multilateral trading environment in crisis (incl
  the whole WTO)
• Increase in bilateral trade development (back in
  local and regional preference system)
• Increase of protective attitude in trade
• Development will slow down
• New tensions in regional trade
• For EC and Estonia internal reforms will not
  contribute to negotiating power
• EC farmers will have to pay more
• Increasing pressure through WTO DSB sugar,
  bananas etc.
• CAP reform will slow down old- vs. new MS
  situation is remaining
• EC internal competitive trade environment is
  getting worse

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DDA development possible implications in case of
positive results

• Globally
• Multilateral vs. bilateral
• Global (single) rules
• Development increase in trade and incomes
• Increase in some food products price i.e. milk,
  sugar
• EC and Estonia
• EC farmer will contribute but others are in
  similar conditions
• Opportunities in trade to third countries markets
  will increase
• Pressure to develop flexible internal
  agricultural policy across the EC
• No need administratively regulate trade

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New challenges!?

• Bio- energy and trade in energyproducts
• General food shortage need for different
  policies