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CIM

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Title: CIM


1
Mark Hoogendoorn1, Catholijn M. Jonker2,
Jan Treur1, and Marian Verhaegh3
Agent-Based Analysis and Support for Incident
Management1 Vrije Universiteit, Department of
Artificial Intelligence2 Radboud Universiteit
Nijmegen, NICI, now moved to Delft University of
Technology, Man-Machine Interaction3 CMotions /
Quartet Consult
2
Contents
  • The Approach A High-Level Overview
  • Handling incomplete information
  • Properties for Incident Management Organizations
  • Classification Scheme for Properties
  • Case Study Volendam bar fire
  • Conclusions

3
The Approach A High-Level Overview
  • Approach is introduced to detect and classify
    errors in traces of incident management
    organizations
  • Typically incident management traces are however
    incomplete, which needs to be addressed in the
    approach
  • Overview

Enriched Trace
Errors in Trace
TRACE
Advice
Incident Management Properties
Check Properties against trace
Classify Errors
Trace Enrichment Method
4
Handling Incomplete Information
  • Analysis of a trace might be impossible due to
    incompleteness
  • Trace enrichment rules are used to add
    information to the trace
  • Such rules can either be strict or non-strict
  • For example
  • EP Internal judgment based on communication
    (semi-formal)
  • if at time t role R1 communicates to role R2
    that the current situation S is a disaster
  • and there exists no time point at which role R2
    communicates to role R1 he thinks the situation
    is not a disaster
  • then for every time point t2 gt t role R2
    interprets the current situation S as being a
    disaster

5
Properties for Incident Management Organizations
(1/6)
  • Properties in incident management have been
    obtained from documents such as disaster plans
    and educational material
  • Properties are specified in a hierarchical
    fashion to allow for efficient diagnosis
  • Example properties First Ambulance Behavior
  • first_arriving_ambulance(?TRACE, tTIME,
    AAMBULANCE)
  • An ambulance is the first arriving ambulance if
  • the ambulance arrives at the scene of an incident
    at time t
  • and there does not exist a time t lt t at which
    another ambulance arrived at the scene of the
    incident
  • state(?, t) physical_position(A, scene)
  • ??tlt t, ?BAMBULANCE state(?, t)
    physical_position(B, scene)

6
Properties for Incident Management Organizations
(2/6)
  • Global behavior specification
  • P2(d) First arriving ambulance global behavior
  • if at a time t ambulance A is the first to
    arrive at the scene
  • and at time t3 gt t the officer on duty arrives
    at the scene
  • then for all t2 t and t2 lt t3 at least one
    person belonging to the ambulance should be
    present at the ambulance
  • and for all t4 t the ambulance is signaling
    the green alarm light
  • and there exists a time t5 later than t before t
    d at which the driver of that ambulance
    communicates a correct interpretation of the
    situation to the operator.

7
Properties for Incident Management Organizations
(3/6)
  • Property can be refined to detect where the
    precise error is made
  • P2 first ambulance correct
  • P3 green light
  • P4 presence
  • P5 correct interpretation communication
  • P6 investigation by paramedic
  • P7 interpretation from paramedic to driver
  • P8 interpretation from driver to operator

8
Properties for Incident Management Organizations
(4/6)
  • Green Light Behavior
  • P3 First ambulance green light behavior
  • if at a time t ambulance A is the first to
    arrive at the scene
  • then for all later points in time t2 the
    ambulance is signaling the green light.
  • Personnel Presence
  • P4 First arriving ambulance personnel presence
  • if at a time t ambulance A is the first to
    arrive at the scene
  • and at time t3 gt t the officer on duty arrives
    at the scene
  • then for all t2 t and t2 lt t3 at least one
    person belonging to the ambulance should be
    present at the ambulance

9
Properties for Incident Management Organizations
(5/6)
  • Situation Interpretation
  • P5(d) First arriving ambulance interpretation
  • if at a time t ambulance A is the first to
    arrive at the scene
  • then at a later point in time t2 lt t d the
    driver of that ambulance communicates a correct
    interpretation of the situation
  • Paramedic Investigation
  • P6(d) Paramedic investigation
  • if at a time t ambulance A is the first to arrive
    at the scene
  • and at time t a paramedic is in the ambulance
  • then at a later point in time t2 lt t d the
    paramedic of that ambulance will start an
    investigation and not be at the ambulance any
    more

10
Properties for Incident Management Organizations
(6/6)
  • Paramedic Communication
  • P7(d) Paramedic communication
  • if at a time t ambulance A is the first to arrive
    at the scene
  • and at time t the paramedic is in the ambulance
  • and at time t2 the physical position of the
    paramedic is not inside the ambulance
  • then at a later point in time t3 lt t2 d the
    paramedic of that ambulance will communicate a
    correct interpretation of the situation to the
    driver
  • Driver Communication
  • P8(d) Driver communication
  • if at a time t the driver of the first ambulance
    at the scene receives a situation description
    from the paramedic
  • then at a later point in time t2 lt t d the
    driver of that ambulance communicates a correct
    interpretation of the situation to the operator

11
Classification Scheme for Properties (1/2)
  • Humans make different types of errors (Reason
    1990)
  • Skill Based Errors (before individual becomes
    conscious of a problem)
  • Rule Based Errors (application of the wrong
    rule)
  • Knowledge Based Errors (no rule applicable,
    reasoning about combination of rules leads to an
    error)

12
Classification Scheme for Properties (2/2)
  • Classification Scheme for Incident Management
  • Part of very basic training Skill Based
  • e.g. turning on a water pump
  • Rules explicitly part of disaster
    plan/education Rule Based
  • e.g. warn party x in case of a fire
  • Disaster plan/education merely provides
    guidelines Knowledge Based
  • e.g. the mayor should choose a strategy
  • Rule-Based P3, P5, P6, P8 Knowledge Based P7

13
Case Study Volendam (1/2)
  • New Years Eve 2001
  • Bar fire
  • Rapid development of
  • Fire
  • Smoke
  • Casualties
  • Fire exits blocked
  • Small and few roads

14
Case Study Volendam (2/2)
  • Properties as shown before have been checked
    against a formalized trace of the Volendam bar
    fire
  • P2 first ambulance correct
  • P3 green light
  • P4 presence
  • P5 correct interpretation communication
  • P6 investigation by paramedic
  • P7 interpretation from paramedic to driver
  • P8 interpretation from driver to operator
  • These properties indeed comply to the evaluation
    as described in the disaster report of the
    Volendam bar fire

15
Conclusions
  • Approach is presented which enables formal
    checking of properties against incident
    management traces
  • Approach allows for the enrichment of traces
    using enrichment rules in case of incomplete
    information
  • Classification scheme for errors enables
    dedicated training sessions
  • In the future, the approach could be put into a
    personal agent, continuously monitoring incident
    management organizations
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