Title: CIM
1Mark Hoogendoorn1, Catholijn M. Jonker2,
Jan Treur1, and Marian Verhaegh3
Agent-Based Analysis and Support for Incident
Management1 Vrije Universiteit, Department of
Artificial Intelligence2 Radboud Universiteit
Nijmegen, NICI, now moved to Delft University of
Technology, Man-Machine Interaction3 CMotions /
Quartet Consult
2Contents
- The Approach A High-Level Overview
- Handling incomplete information
- Properties for Incident Management Organizations
- Classification Scheme for Properties
- Case Study Volendam bar fire
- Conclusions
3The Approach A High-Level Overview
- Approach is introduced to detect and classify
errors in traces of incident management
organizations - Typically incident management traces are however
incomplete, which needs to be addressed in the
approach - Overview
Enriched Trace
Errors in Trace
TRACE
Advice
Incident Management Properties
Check Properties against trace
Classify Errors
Trace Enrichment Method
4Handling Incomplete Information
- Analysis of a trace might be impossible due to
incompleteness - Trace enrichment rules are used to add
information to the trace - Such rules can either be strict or non-strict
- For example
- EP Internal judgment based on communication
(semi-formal) - if at time t role R1 communicates to role R2
that the current situation S is a disaster - and there exists no time point at which role R2
communicates to role R1 he thinks the situation
is not a disaster - then for every time point t2 gt t role R2
interprets the current situation S as being a
disaster
5Properties for Incident Management Organizations
(1/6)
- Properties in incident management have been
obtained from documents such as disaster plans
and educational material - Properties are specified in a hierarchical
fashion to allow for efficient diagnosis - Example properties First Ambulance Behavior
- first_arriving_ambulance(?TRACE, tTIME,
AAMBULANCE) - An ambulance is the first arriving ambulance if
- the ambulance arrives at the scene of an incident
at time t - and there does not exist a time t lt t at which
another ambulance arrived at the scene of the
incident - state(?, t) physical_position(A, scene)
- ??tlt t, ?BAMBULANCE state(?, t)
physical_position(B, scene)
6Properties for Incident Management Organizations
(2/6)
- Global behavior specification
- P2(d) First arriving ambulance global behavior
- if at a time t ambulance A is the first to
arrive at the scene - and at time t3 gt t the officer on duty arrives
at the scene - then for all t2 t and t2 lt t3 at least one
person belonging to the ambulance should be
present at the ambulance - and for all t4 t the ambulance is signaling
the green alarm light - and there exists a time t5 later than t before t
d at which the driver of that ambulance
communicates a correct interpretation of the
situation to the operator.
7Properties for Incident Management Organizations
(3/6)
- Property can be refined to detect where the
precise error is made - P2 first ambulance correct
- P3 green light
- P4 presence
- P5 correct interpretation communication
- P6 investigation by paramedic
- P7 interpretation from paramedic to driver
- P8 interpretation from driver to operator
8Properties for Incident Management Organizations
(4/6)
- Green Light Behavior
- P3 First ambulance green light behavior
- if at a time t ambulance A is the first to
arrive at the scene - then for all later points in time t2 the
ambulance is signaling the green light. - Personnel Presence
- P4 First arriving ambulance personnel presence
- if at a time t ambulance A is the first to
arrive at the scene - and at time t3 gt t the officer on duty arrives
at the scene - then for all t2 t and t2 lt t3 at least one
person belonging to the ambulance should be
present at the ambulance
9Properties for Incident Management Organizations
(5/6)
- Situation Interpretation
- P5(d) First arriving ambulance interpretation
- if at a time t ambulance A is the first to
arrive at the scene - then at a later point in time t2 lt t d the
driver of that ambulance communicates a correct
interpretation of the situation - Paramedic Investigation
- P6(d) Paramedic investigation
- if at a time t ambulance A is the first to arrive
at the scene - and at time t a paramedic is in the ambulance
- then at a later point in time t2 lt t d the
paramedic of that ambulance will start an
investigation and not be at the ambulance any
more
10Properties for Incident Management Organizations
(6/6)
- Paramedic Communication
- P7(d) Paramedic communication
- if at a time t ambulance A is the first to arrive
at the scene - and at time t the paramedic is in the ambulance
- and at time t2 the physical position of the
paramedic is not inside the ambulance - then at a later point in time t3 lt t2 d the
paramedic of that ambulance will communicate a
correct interpretation of the situation to the
driver - Driver Communication
- P8(d) Driver communication
- if at a time t the driver of the first ambulance
at the scene receives a situation description
from the paramedic - then at a later point in time t2 lt t d the
driver of that ambulance communicates a correct
interpretation of the situation to the operator
11Classification Scheme for Properties (1/2)
- Humans make different types of errors (Reason
1990) - Skill Based Errors (before individual becomes
conscious of a problem) - Rule Based Errors (application of the wrong
rule) - Knowledge Based Errors (no rule applicable,
reasoning about combination of rules leads to an
error)
12Classification Scheme for Properties (2/2)
- Classification Scheme for Incident Management
- Part of very basic training Skill Based
- e.g. turning on a water pump
- Rules explicitly part of disaster
plan/education Rule Based - e.g. warn party x in case of a fire
- Disaster plan/education merely provides
guidelines Knowledge Based - e.g. the mayor should choose a strategy
- Rule-Based P3, P5, P6, P8 Knowledge Based P7
13Case Study Volendam (1/2)
- New Years Eve 2001
- Bar fire
- Rapid development of
- Fire
- Smoke
- Casualties
- Fire exits blocked
- Small and few roads
14Case Study Volendam (2/2)
- Properties as shown before have been checked
against a formalized trace of the Volendam bar
fire - P2 first ambulance correct
- P3 green light
- P4 presence
- P5 correct interpretation communication
- P6 investigation by paramedic
- P7 interpretation from paramedic to driver
- P8 interpretation from driver to operator
- These properties indeed comply to the evaluation
as described in the disaster report of the
Volendam bar fire
15Conclusions
- Approach is presented which enables formal
checking of properties against incident
management traces - Approach allows for the enrichment of traces
using enrichment rules in case of incomplete
information - Classification scheme for errors enables
dedicated training sessions - In the future, the approach could be put into a
personal agent, continuously monitoring incident
management organizations