Starting point

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Starting point

• Insufficient data ? planning possible?
• Solution pick from the low-hanging fruit!
• But how to identify?

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Risk and Social Vulnerability

• Lisa Schipper
• Stockholm Environment Institute
• Adaptation Training Workshop
• 20-21 October 2009, Jakarta

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Session Description

• Key concepts, theories and approaches to the
  social aspects of climate change impacts
• Case studies
• Group exercise
• General discussion

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Introduction
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Causal Linkages
Ironically, in many cases, we are eroding
capacities to respond to change, at the same time
as we are accelerating the speed and magnitude of
change. (OBrien, 2006 3)
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UNDERSTANDING RISK VULNERABILITY
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Vulnerability

• Describes how likely an individual or system is
  to be harmed by a defined hazard. 
• Combination of
• Sensitivity to specific stress
• Exposure to specific stress
• (Capacity to respond to specific stress)

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Roots of Vulnerability

• Risk and vulnerability are relative concepts
  depend on hazards, timing, duration, and not the
  same for everyone
• Can talk about risk, vulnerability in relation to
  health, crime, etc.
• Key Questions
• What makes people vulnerable?
• How can vulnerability be reduced?
• How do natural hazards (including climate change)
  influence vulnerability?
• Concept disaster waiting to happen

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Examples of Underlying Factors

• Gender
• Age
• Political affiliation, power relations, equity
• Livelihood
• Beliefs (religion, etc.) and other
  socio-culturally-defined characteristics that
  define access to resources and perceptions of
  risk (caste, class, etc.)
• Poverty

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Poverty and Risk

• What role does poverty play in determining risk?
  Focus on vulnerability
• What is the difference between poverty and
  vulnerability? Level of complexity
• Poverty entitlements access to resources
• but there is more to vulnerability it is not
  the same as poverty

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Moving towards vulnerability
Based on Kasperson (2001) URL http//www.ihdp.uni
-bonn.de/html/publications/update/update01_02/IHDP
Update01_02_kasperson.html
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Related Concepts

• Natural hazards
• Disasters not natural disasters
• Impact
• Climate and environmental change
• Disaster risk reduction
• Adaptation
• Resilience

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Relating Adaptation to Vulnerability, Risk and
Hazards
DEVELOPMENT
HAZARD/ STRESS
ADAPTATION
VULNERABILITY
RISK
IMPACT
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Impact

• The way a human or natural system reacts to
  environmental change, including extreme events.
  Often, reference to impacts refers also to
  secondary and tertiary consequences. 
• Example Climate change can result in less
  rainfall, which  will inhibit crop growth.  This
  is either because it means less water falling on
  plots, less groundwater recharge, or less water
  in streams from which water is taken to irrigate
  crops.  The secondary consequences of this is
  less agricultural production, which can lead to
  economic difficulties or hunger.
•  

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Risk

• In the context of environmental change, risk
  refers to the threat posed by a change, i.e. the
  probability of an adverse impact.
• Climate change risk is a function of the
  magnitude of an individual hazard/change and
  degree of vulnerability of a system in question
  to that hazard/change.
• Unless a system is vulnerable to the hazard,
  there is no risk implied.

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Components of Risk

• Risk Hazards x Vulnerability
• Risk (Hazards x Vulnerability)/Capacity

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Discussion

• Why could the concept of geographically-defined
  vulnerability problematic?

Vulnerability to two or more hazards. Red (high),
Orange (medium) Source http//www.worldbank.org/
ieg/naturaldisasters/maps/
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Example Risk and Culture

• People have always dealt with risk but still
  not adapted why? Can cultural characteristics
  limit adaptation?
• People understand risk through a certain lens,
  influenced by their culture
• Usually not included in studies because
  sensitive, complex

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What is Self-Victimisation?

• I have no power to control the hazard
  (occurrence, magnitude, frequency)
• Nature, God, Others are to blame
• I have no power to control my sensitivity to it
• Inherent characteristics make me sensitive
• I have no power to control my exposure to it
• Uncontrollable reasons make me exposed
• I have no power to increase my resilience to it
• There is nothing I can do, or no matter what I
  do, I will still be exposed and sensitive

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Social Vulnerability and Science

• How can we relate this concept to scientific
  information on climate change (eg. scenarios) and
  other environmental change?
• How can we identify and assess social
  vulnerability?
• How can we use this information practically?
• What are the current knowledge gaps?

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Key Points from Leading Thinkers

• Global environmental change is a threat to human
  security
• Risk and vulnerability to global environmental
  change are not isolated from other social,
  political and economic problems
• Scientific certainty about climate change impacts
  is not needed to understand that existing
  capacity to cope with hazards is not sufficient
• Context is key (social, economic, technological,
  political and institutional conditions,
  biophysical factors)
• Global environmental change is often more about
  development than about environment

Source OBrien (2006)
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Key Points from Leading Thinkers (ii)

• Evidence of differences in vulnerability to
  climate change between Mexico and US, due to
  differences in social, political, economic and
  historical factors.
• Biophysical characteristics and environmental
  change are not the main driving factors of
  vulnerability
• Both experienced and perceived risk are different
  depending on who you are

Source Vasquez-Leon et al (2003)
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Discussion

• How can we live with risk?