GECAFS SCENARIOS

1
GECAFS SCENARIOS

• Need for scenarios
• GECAFS scenario requirements
• Scenario work elsewhere
• Developing GECAFS scenarios

2
WHEN ARE SCENARIOS NEEDED?
Hi
Forecasts Optimization
Hedge
INFO QUAL
Adaptive Mgt
Scenarios
Lo
ABILITY TO CONTROL OUTCOMES
Lo
Hi
3
NEED FOR SCENARIOSA GECAFS PERSPECTIVE

• Consider future uncertainty
• Provide story line for key indicators
• Define set of plausible futures (min scen set)
• Interpret Changing Socio-economic Conditions
• Blend quantitative qualitative info
• Provide linkages between GECAFS regional studies
• other scales
• Provide context for GECAFS regional studies
• Provide foundation for linkages across regional
  studies

4
GECAFS SCENARIO ATTRIBUTES PRELIMINARY
ASSESSMENT (APR 01)
Scales Temporal 1-5 yrs (10 max) Spatial
regional/national with links to GECAFS
projects Key Variables Food systems production,
availability, accessibility Socio-econ pop.,
econ performance, tech., inst.,
policies Bio-phys climate, water, land
5
EXISTING SCENARIOS

• UNEP (real regional data content is increasing)
• POLESTAR (global scenario group)
• TARGET (Netherlands)
• WCRP suite on climate
• Millennium Assessment
• FAO (water, land, fibre supply, popn
• Popn Columbia University
• Marine FAO, Int. Mangrove and coral projects

6
SELECTED RECENT SCENARIO STUDIES
Global Scenario Group GSG (SEI) Time
2050 Regions 11 Focus Environment, poverty
reduction, human values Scenarios Conventional
worlds (market forces, policy reform) Barbarizatio
n (breakdown, fortress world) Great Transitions
(eco-communalism, new sustainability)
7
SELECTED RECENT SCENARIO STUDIES contd
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios SRS
(IPCC) Time 2100 Regions 4 Focus Climate
change Scenarios A1 Rapid market growth,
economic cultural globalization A2
Self-reliance cultural identity preserved,
fragmented development B1 Similar to A1 but
global solutions for sustainability B2 Local
sustainability solutions to soc-econ env issues
8
SELECTED RECENT SCENARIO STUDIES contd
MA Proto-scenarios Time about 50 yrs Regions
? Focus Derived from GSG, SRES, etc. Scenarios
1 Market driven globalization, trade
liberalization, institutional modernization 2
Like 1 but sustaining ecosystems policies in
place 3 Developed world shift to
sustainability. Developing world Poverty
reduction, sustability emphasized 4. Fragmented
development preserve regional econ local
culture 5. Elites fortress (national or local),
poverty outside
9
SUGGESTIONS FOR DEVELOPING GECAFS SCENARIOS

• Firm up GECAFS scenario attributes
• Inventory of existing scenarios sets
• Appraise existing scenarios w.r.t. GECAFS
  scenario attributes
• Consult with GECAFS regional projects
• Develop GECAFS scenarios report

10
BUILDING GECAFS SCENARIOS
GECAFS NEEDS SEI IPCC MA ??? Food
production Food availability Food
accessibility Population GDP
Institutions Climate Water Land
use
11
GECAFS SCENARIO ISSUES

• Issues of vulnerability difficult to identify in
  groups that do not have income
• Estimate degree of dependence on local natural
  resources most vulnerable group
• Mismatch in scales
• Data on institutions likely to be missing or not
  well recorded
• Cultural influences on food demand unrecorded
• Very important to understand the quality of data