APES Chapter 12 Notes Human Population, Demography, and Carrying Capacity

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APES Chapter 12 NotesHuman Population,
Demography, and Carrying Capacity
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Paul Hawken

• The problems to be faced are vast and complex,
  but come down to this nearly 7 billion people
  are breeding exponentially. The problems of
  fulfilling their wants and needs is stripping the
  earth of its biotic capacity to produce life a
  climatic burst of consumption by a single species
  is overwhelming the skies, earth, waters and
  fauna.

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Population change (births immigration)
(deaths and emigration)

• Birth and death rates are coming down worldwide,
  but death rates have fallen more sharply.
• Exponential growth has slowed some but the worlds
  population has more than doubled from 1963 to
  2002. 3.2 billion to 6.7 billion

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Replacement-level fertility

• is the number of children that a couple must have
  to replace themselves. 2.1 in developed
  countries. 2.5 in developing countries

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Total fertility rate

• an estimate of how many children a female will
  have during her childbearing years (15 to 49).
  The TFRs have dropped sharply since 1950. In
  2002 the average TFR was 2.8. 1.6 in developed
  countries and 3.1 in developing countries

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Population Growth

• By 2050 the worlds population is projected to be
  63 urban, more tropical, and considerably older
  than today.
• In the U.S. the population has grown to 300
  million last year. The baby boom peaked at 3.7
  children per women in the 1950s.It is now at the
  replacement rate of 2.1 since 1972. The U.S.
  population rate is still faster than other
  developed countries.
• Projections 2050 414 million
• 2100 571 million

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Demographic transition

• A shift from high birth rates to low birth rates
  or vies-a-versa.
• Baby Boom Period 1946 to 1964 (very large
  generation)
• Baby Bust generation or generation X 1965 to
  1976 (low in numbers)
• Echo Boom or generation Y 1977 to 2000 (largest
  generation ever)

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Factors that affect birth and fertility rates

• 1. Children as part of the labor force more
  children
• 2. Urbanization less children
• 3. Cost of raising and educating children
  less children
• 4. Educational and employment opportunities
  for women less children
• 5. Infant mortality rate more or less
  depending on rate
• 6. Average age of marriage later marriage
  is equal to less children
• 7. Pension systems less children
• 8. Legal abortions less children
• 9. Birth control less children
• 10. Religious and cultural norms more or
  less children

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Factors that affect death rates

• Death rate and infant mortality have decreased
  dramatically in the last 100 years.
• 1. increased food supplies
• 2. better nutrition
• 3. improved medical and public health
• 4. improved sanitation
• 5. safer water supplies

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Facts

• Two useful indicators of overall health of
  people
• 1. life expectancy
• 2. infant mortality rate (number of babies
  out of every 1000 that die before their 1st
  birthday.

• The U.S. infant mortality rate is 37th in the
  world
• Causes
• 1. inadequate health care for poor women
• 2. drug addiction
• 3. high teen pregnancy

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Age Structure

• Even if the replacement-level fertility rate of
  2.1 were achieved globally the worlds population
  would keep growing for another 50 years because
  of age structure.

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Age structure is used to look at

• 1. pre-productive ages 1-14
• 2. reproductive ages 15-44
• 3. post productive ages 45 and up
• Countries with a large preproductive age group
  will have an large future growth rate. It could
  be slowed by
• 1. birth control
• 2. sharp rise in death rates
• Examples Nigeria, Ethiopia, Mexico, Brazil,
  Bangladesh, and Pakistan

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Migration

• Migration plays a very small role in changing
  population numbers in developing countries. Only
  a few countries allow large immigration flow such
  as U.S., Canada, and Australia.

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Question

• Can the world provide an adequate standard of
  living for 3.1 billion more people without
  causing widespread environmental damage?

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Carrying Capacity?

• Experts disagree on the earths carrying capacity
• Some say 2 billion, come say 8 billion, some say
  20 billion

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Demographic Transition Hypothesis

• states as countries become industrialized, first
  their death rates and then there birth rates
  decline
• 1. Pre-industrial stage little population
  growth due to harsh living conditions
• 2. Transitional stage when
  industrialization begins, food production raises
  death rates drop and birth rates go up. Rapid
  growth
• 3. Industrial stage birth rate drops
  population growth slows.
• 4. Postindustrial stage Zero population
  growth (most of Europe)

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Advantages of Family Planning

• 1. education about contraception
• 2. Drop in TFRs in developing countries
• 3. reducing illegal abortions
• 4. decreasing death from pregnancy

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Empowering women help reduce birth rates

• 1. education and good paying jobs
• 2. live in societies where their rights are
  not suppressed
• Globally women work 2/3 of all hours worked but
  receive only 19 of the worlds income and own
  only .01 of the worlds property
• Women make up 70 of the worlds poor and 2/3 of
  the adults are illiterate
• Economic rewards and penalties are in place in
  some countries such as China but have unforeseen
  complications.

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India

• First national family planning began in India in
  1952 but this year they added 18 million to their
  population.
• 1. India is one of the poorest countries in
  the world
• 2, half of the labor force is unemployed
• 3. malnutrition from poverty affects 40 of
  the children
• 4. 16 of the worlds population just 2.3
  of the land resources and 2 of the forests
• 5. 50 of the cropland is degraded from
  erosion, waterlogging, salinization, overgrazing,
  and deforestation
• 6. 70 of the water is polluted and
  sanitation is inadequate

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China

• China has cut its birth rate from 5.7 to 1.8
  children. This sharp drop in fertility is because
  they have an extensive, intrusive, and strict
  population control.
• 1. couples encouraged to marry late and
  produce only one child
• 2. ready access to sterilization,
  contraception and abortion
• 3. If they have only one child they receive
• extra food, larger pensions, better
  housing, free medical care, salary bonuses, free
  education fro children, better employment
• China has 21 of the worlds population but only
  7 of fresh water and cropland, 4 of its forests
  and 2 of its oil.

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1994 Conference on Population and Development in
Cairo

• 1. provide universal family planning
• 2. improve health care
• 3. implement national population policies
• 4. improver status of women
• 5. increase access to education
• 6. increase involvement of men in
  child-rearing and family planning
• 7. eradicate poverty
• 8. reduce unsustainable patterns of
  consumption

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THE END