Slayt 1

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Climate Change Turkey and Its Region
MEHMET ÇAGLAR Director General Of Turkish State
Meteorological Service THE MINISTRY OF
ENVIRONMENT AND FORESTRY REPUBLIC OF TURKEY
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UN Framework Convention on Climate Change defines
climate change as
a change of climate that is attributed directly
or indirectly to human activity that alters the
composition of the global atmosphere and that is
in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periods.
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• Combating climate change challenge requires
  urgent global solutions.
• Climate change is not a solely an environmental
  problem anymore, but rather, it is mainly a
  sustainable development issue.
• The issues of climate change are
  multi-dimensional and cross all areas of
  governmental policies.
• Climate change is a policy challenge for any
  government.

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TO LIMIT GLOBAL WARMING SAFELY BY THE END OF THE
CENTURY, both developed and developing
countries should contribute to the global
efforts, in line with their respective
capacities and on the basis of the principle of
common but differentiated responsibilities.
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According to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
IPCC, concentration of greenhouse gases are
increasing in the atmosphere and that induces a
change in the Worlds climate. Some of the
observed changes are widespread increase in
temperature over the globe, increase in the sea
levels, decreases in snow and ice extent and
changes in the frequency and/or intensity of some
extreme weather events. There is now higher
confidence in the projected increases in
droughts, heat waves and floods, as well as their
adverse impacts.
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Turkey is located in the eastern Mediterranean
basin where countries in the highest risk group
with respect to the negative impacts of climate
change.
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Temperature Trends in Turkey
(a) Winter (b) Spring
(c) Summer (d) Autumn
Increase
The most prominent change in temperatures is the
widespread increase in summer, especially in
western and southwestern parts of Turkey.
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Precipitation Trends in Turkey
(a) Winter (b) Spring
Decrease

(c) Summer (d) Autumn

Increase
Winter precipitation in the western provinces of
Turkey has decreased significantly. Fall
precipitation, by contrast, has increased in the
northern parts of Central Anatolia.
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Future Climatic Changes in Turkey and Its Region

• Temperature changes
• Turkey and its region will undergo a warming in
  all seasons for both the SRES A2 and B1 emissions
  scenarios.
• By the end of this century, regional model
  results indicate an increase in temperature
  ranging between 2 to 4 C under A2 and B1
  scenarios with regional and seasonal differences.
• The highest warming will be in summer in southern
  parts, especially Southeastern Anatolia Region of
  Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Greece.
• Hot spells above 35 C are projected to increase
  in summer season in southern Turkey, Syria, Iran,
  Greece and Balkan States.

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ECHAM5 IPCC-SRES A2 Scenario RegCM3 Seasonal
Simulations for 2011-2099
Seasonal Temperature Change C
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ECHAM5 IPCC-SRES B1 Scenario RegCM3 Seasonal
Simulations for 2010-2099
Seasonal Temperature Change C
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Future Climatic Changes in Turkey and Its Region

• Precipitation changes
• Severe reductions are projected in winter
  precipitation which is very important for water
  resources.
• For the 2041-2069 period, there will be an
  increase in northern Turkey, Greece, Balkan
  States, Iran and Azerbaijan while a decrease in
  South of Turkey, Russia and Ukraine.
• For the period of 2071-2099, precipitation is
  projected to increase in North and decrease in
  South. Annual precipitation will increase over
  Turkey, Greece, and Balkan States until 2040 and
  strong increase over Balkan States between 30
  and 50.
• Most dramatic decrease occurs after 2071 over
  central and southern part of Turkey, Greece, west
  part of Bulgaria, Romania.

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ECHAM5 IPCC-SRES A2 Scenario RegCM3 Simulations
for 2011-2099 Annual Total Precipitation Change
()
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ECHAM5 IPCC-SRES B1 Scenario RegCM3 Seasonal
Simulations for 2011-2099 Seasonal Precipitation
Change ()
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Future Climatic Changes in Turkey and Its Region
By the end of the century, snow depth will be
reduced up to 20-30 cm over the high Plains of
Alps, Eastern Anatolia, eastern part of the Black
Sea and Caucasus Mountain. The major changes may
occur in the stream flow for the rivers which are
the main sources of water, not only for safe
drink water, domestic and industrial use, but
also for irrigation and power generation.
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As a party to the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protokol,
Turkey attaches importance to the implementation
of measures and policies to mitigate greenhouse
gas emissions and to adapt to the impacts of
climate change.
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MITIGATION
In spite of its increasing population, rapidly
growing economy and energy demand Turkey is
determined to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions
on the basis of a convenient base
year. Although Turkey does not have any
quantitative reduction commitments, comprehensive
efforts in all sectors have been launched.
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MITIGATION

• Energy Efficiency Law
• Renewable Energy Law
• A series of activities for
• Optimum utilization of Turkeys hydroelectric
  potential
• Promoting energy efficiency
• Improving the quality of vehicle fuel
• Withdrawal of old vehicles from circulation
• Promoting environmentally friendly new engine
  technologies
• Increasing energy efficiency in cement and
  iron/steel plants

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MITIGATION

• In agriculture,
• Increasing sink areas
• Use of biomass instead of fossil fuels
• Use of best available agricultural techniques
• Improvement of economic and social conditions
  of the people living in the forest villages to
  prevent deforestation
• Preservation of forest areas and biodiversity
  are the priority areas for mitigation of GHG

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ADAPTATION

• Preservation of water resources
• Using modern irrigation systems
• Establisment of early flashflood warning
  systems
• Building more reservoirs for drinking water and
  irrigation
• Developing drought resilient crops
• Newly formed Coordinating Board on Agricultural
  Drought and Action Plan on Agricultural Drought
  includes adaptation in agriculture sector.

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• Cooperation among countries for combating
  climate change becomes very important.
• Potential cooperation areas
• Increasing adaptation capacity of countries
• Joint projects for establishment of early warning
  systems for droughts, heat waves, floods and
  extreme weather events
• Projects on new and renewable energy sources
• Technology transfer.

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Thank you