SOW Item 1

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Auburn Information Assurance Laboratory
J. A. Drew Hamilton, Jr., Ph.D. Director,
Information Assurance Laboratoryand Associate
Professor Computer Science Software Engineering
FAX [phone] hamilton_at_eng.auburn.edu
drew_at_drew-hamilton.com
107 Dunstan Hall Auburn University, AL
36849-5347 http//www.eng.auburn.edu/users/hamilto
n
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Outline

• Housekeeping
• What is simulation and why should you care?
• A brief history of simulation
• Clausewitz
• Rand
• Hermann Kahn
• How well are we doing?
• First Gulf War
• What is SCS?
• Conclusions.

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Branding Using the SCS Name

• In order to conduct a conference in cooperation
  with SCS, there procedures to follow
• Written, signed agreement that SCS bears no
  financial responsibility for the conference
  signed by the signature authority for the
  conference.
• SCS members are allowed to register for the
  conference at the organizing groups member rate
  (if any).
• Conference papers are made available to SCS to
  publish in our electronic archives.
• Recommendation from Senior VP
• Approval Authority, President
• Requests from MISS Centers, MS Net Members
  approved by Senior VP

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Avoiding Unreasonable Fears
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NDIA Affiliation Update
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Fallout

• Tucker rule on return on investment (ROI)
• If assets 0 and return 1.00, then ROI ?
• New SCS editor to be hired next week.
• Membership Conference services to be
  outsourced.
• Next election scheduled Spring 2009.
• New MISS Charter to be drafted.

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SCS is Staying Independent in San Diego
Now Headquartered inSan Diego for more than 50
years.
Avoided Moving to Arlington, affiliating with
NDIA
Close to Disneyland The happiest place on Earth
Close to the Pentagon The unhappiest place on
Earth
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SpringSim 2008 Ottawa, Canada

• Who Hassan Rajaei, Conference
  Chair rajaei_at_cs.bgsu.edu
• When April 13 16, 2008
• Where Ottawa, Canada
• Vice Chair Featured Musical TalentGabriel
  Wainer

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SummerSim 2008 Edinburgh, Scotland

• Who Bill Waite, Conference Chair BWaite_at_aegistg
  .com
• When June 16 19, 2008
• Where University of EdinburghWhat 1.
  Summer Computer Simulation Conference2.
  International Symposium on Performance Evaluation
  of Computer Telecommunication Systems

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Quotations from Clausewitz

• Frequent periods of inaction in war remove it
  further from the absolute, and make it still more
  a calculation of probabilities.
• Therefore, the element of chance only is wanting
  to make of war a game, and in that element it is
  least of all deficient.

Icosahedron
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What is a model?

• 1. The missile launches out of its silo by
  firing its1st stage boost motor (A).2. 60
  sec.s after launch, 1st stage drops off 2nd
  stage motor (B) ignites. Themissile shroud is
  ejected.3. 120 seconds afterlaunch, the 3rd
  stage motor (C) ignites and separates from the
  2nd stage.4. About 180 seconds after launch, 3rd
  stage thrust terminates and the Post-Boost
  Vehicle (D) separates from the rocket.5.
  Post-Boost Vehicle maneuvers itself preps
  re-entry veh. (RV) deployment.6. The RVs, as
  well as decoys and chaff, are deployed during
  backaway.7. The RVs chaff re-enter the
  atmosphere at high speeds are armed in
  flight.8. The nuclear warheads detonate, either
  as air bursts or ground bursts.9. Life is good
  in a commie-free world.

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What is Simulation?

• A model is an abstraction of a system (or system
  of systems).
• When we exercise the model with external stimuli
  e.g. script, scenario, collected data we are
  running a simulation.

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Early Uses of Simulation

• On Thermonuclear War by Hermann Khan (1960-61)
• 10 distinct post WW III scenarios
• Based on game theory
• Limited data collection opportunities

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Thermopylae (480 B.C.)

• How do you model a force mismatch?
• Leonidas sends bulk of force of 4000 away
• 300 heavily armored Spartans, 400 Corinthians
  and 400 Thebans vs. 10,000 Immortals, the
  Persian royal bodyguard
• The fox knows many tricks the hedgehog, just one
  good one.
• Archilochus of Paros

Go tell the Spartans, O stranger passing by,
that here, obedient to her laws we lie.
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Estimates, 1st 2nd Gulf Wars

• 1st Gulf War
• Best Estimate COL T. N. Dupuy, USA (ret.)
  10,000 KIA
• Actual Casualties 378 KIA
• Edward N. Luttwak
• Demonstrated models could be manipulated to
  achieve any result.
• 2nd Gulf War (Testimony to US Senate Feb. 2003)
• GEN. SHINSEKI I would say that what's been
  mobilized to this point -- something on the order
  of several hundred thousand soldiers are
  probably, you know, a figure that would be
  required. We're talking about post-hostilities
  control over a piece of geography that's fairly
  significant, with the kinds of ethnic tensions
  that could lead to other problems. And so it
  takes a significant ground- force presence to
  maintain a safe and secure environment, to ensure
  that people are fed, that water is distributed,
  all the normal responsibilities that go along
  with administering a situation like this.
• DEPSECDEF Response Wildly off the mark.

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Simulation in T E

• Minuteman gt 250 test launches
• Polaris gt 140 test launches
• Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI) lt 10 test launches

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What is SCS?www.scs.org
The International, multidisciplinary forum
dedicated to applications, development,
education, and research in modeling and simulation

• Membership
• Fellows
• Life Members
• Senior Members
• Members
• Student Members

Conferences
Publications
Education
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Who is SCS?

• Oldest MS Society in the World (founded in 1952)
• Founded by a Navy research scientist based in San
  Diego
• An international professional society
• A society that is heavily oriented on
  peer-reviewed research
• A society searching for relevance to industry and
  government
• Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield Who
  does simulation?

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IPB Who Does Simulation in the USA?

• Department of Defense
• Dialect translation
• Branch bound
• Walt Disney Corp.
• Combat holographs

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Affiliation Predicted Process
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Affiliation Actual Process
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An Optometrists Insight

• Which is better?

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Advantages of Marketing
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Conclusions Looking to the Future

• Everyone working in MS, at least on the RD side
  knows that the MS field suffers from
  fragmentation.
• The vision is the unification of the MS
  community with a single provider of training and
  education, research and development, peer
  reviewed publications, standards and industrial
  groups.
• Going beyond what is best for SCS, -- this is
  clearly best for the MS Community.
• The San Diego Simulation Conference.