Migration in Europe

1
Migration in Europe

• OECD NERO Meeting
• July 6, Paris
• Ruud A. de Mooij
• CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy
  Analysis

2
Migration in Europe

• Immigration from outside EU (2/3)
• labour market tightness
• ageing
• Labour mobility within the EU (1/3)
• income/unemployment disparities
• asymmetric shocks
• EU enlargement

3
Does Europe need more immigrants?

• UN report constant ratio 65 and age 15-64
• --gt NL in 2100 580
• CPB report constant fiscal burden
• --gt NL in 2100 18

4
Economic effects of immigration

• Fiscal impact
• Revenue
• Expenditure
• Labour market effects
• Wage (-distribution)
• Unemployment
• Externalities

5
Critical factors for economic effectsthe Dutch
experience

• Participation rate / follow-up
• Dependency ratio
• Skill level / average income
• Age structure

6
Participation rate Dutch immigrants(NL 100)
7
Follow-up migration
8
Dependency ratio Dutch immigrants
9
Net income of migrants (NL 100)
10
Brain drain
11
Age structure of Dutch migrants
12
Conclusions on external migration

• Prime motivation is ageing
• Economic impact depends on
• Participation (-)
• Dependency ratio (-)
• Skill (-)
• Age ()

13
Labour mobility in the EU

• Labour mobility and regional disparities
• Responsiveness to wage and unemployment
  differentials
• Why is labour mobility low?
• Preferences
• Policy distortions

14
Gross migration rates

15
Regional unemployment dispersion

16
Regional wage dispersion

17
Migration responses in the EU
18
Effect of u on migration rate
19
Effect of w on migration rate
20
Why is mobility low?

• Population vs labour migration
• Language
• Culture
• Female participation
• Institutions

21
Institutional barriers to mobility

• Housing market (Oswald)
• Social insurance (pensions)
• Diplomas
• Informational barriers
• Regional aid