Adaptation Responses and Vulnerability

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Adaptation Responses and Vulnerability to Climate
Change
Barry Smit Professor, University of Guelph,
Canada Co-CLA, IPCC, TAR, WG2, Ch.18
For IPCC Session, COP-6 (pt 2), Bonn, July 17,
2001
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Adaptation to Climate Change
Adjustments in ecological, social or
economic systems in response to actual or
expected climate change stimuli, their effects or
impacts

• to reduce vulnerability
• to moderate damages
• to realize opportunities

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Adaptation in UNFCCC, Kyoto
UNFCCC, Art. 2 Dangerous depends on ability
of ecosystems, food production and economic
development to adapt UNFCCC, Art. 4.1
facilitate adequate adaptation co-operate
in preparing for adaptation... UNFCCC, Art. 4.4,
4.8 assist developing country Parties that
are particularly vulnerable to the adverse
effects of climate change in meeting costs of
adaptation... Kyoto, Art. 10 Formulate,
implementmeasures to facilitate adequate
adaptation...
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Vulnerability to Climate Change depends upon

• Exposure to Climate Change Risks
• and
• Adaptive Capacity to Cope with Risks

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Types of Adaptation
Anticipatory
Reactive

• changes in ecosystem
• composition, location
• wetland migration

Natural Systems Human Systems

• crop diversification
• purchase insurance
• house designs

• crop development
• borrow, change activity
• reconstruction,
• relocation

Public Private

• early-warning
• building codes
• infrastructure

• disaster relief
• relocation incentives

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Main Findings re Adaptation
1. Adaptation can reduce adverse impacts 2.
Communities will adapt autonomously, but not
without costs 3. The key features of climate
change are variabilities and extremes 4.
Planned adaptation measures usually have
immediate benefits 5. Adaptations are likely to
be implemented only if they are integrated
with existing management and development
processes
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Main Findings re Adaptive Capacity
6. Adaptive capacity varies considerably among
countries and socio-economic groups 7.
Development activities modify adaptive capacity,
yet they tend to omit climate change risks 8.
Enhancement of adaptive capacity is necessary
to reduce vulnerability, especially for the
most vulnerable 9. Current knowledge of
adaptation and adaptive capacity is
insufficient
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Research Needs for Adaptation Policy

• Adaptation Processes
• decision making
• conditions that stimulate or constrain
• role of non-climate factors
• Evaluation of Adaptation Options
• not only economic criteria
• include roles of stakeholders
• Focus on Adaptive Capacity
• to reduce vulnerabilities
• relate to existing management processes
• incorporate in development initiatives