Climate Change and Agriculture impacts-facts vs. fiction

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Climate Change and Agriculture
impacts-facts vs. fiction

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By Dr. Pervaiz Amir
Muzaffarabad 18 th March 2008
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Storyline

• Climate Change is modifying agriculture in
  unprecedented ways. As temperatures rise,
  precipitation drops -expect crop calendar
  dynamics, newer risk management, enterprise
  diversification and adaptation.
• Some say its Water and Management Stupid! Is it
  so !
• Substitution potential
• Does irrigated agriculture have all the answers
  10 ton yields the new promise- what about
  mountain maize , wheat, vegetables, forestry and
  livestock
• Why stay in a long drawn struggle of hardship and
  drudgery- Are their choices for the farmers,
  marginalized groups and landless
• Youth of tomorrow face the cc challenge- they do
  not wish to stay in agriculture- at least not in
  its present state
• Living with Probabilities and risky choices-its
  not a bed of roses
• Thinking about a new agriculture enterprise
  model and going for planned change

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Coverage of this presentation

• Agriculture Productivity on Line
• Constraints to Production (geo-physical,
  environmental, economics)
• Climate Change- practical adaptation
• Risk Management and Diversification
• Technologies/Solutions
• Farmers viewpoint- Response is cc fact or
  fiction

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Climate Change ScenarioPakistan

• Projected temperature during 2020s is expected
  to rise 1.31 /- 0.19 degree c summer
  temperatures 1.18/-0.12 and winter 1.43/- 0.09.
  Temperatures are also projected for the 2050 and
  2080s ( these are in the range of 4-6 degrees or
  more)
• Likewise 2.79/- 2.94 in annual precipitation
  5.31 /- 4.13 during summer and -1.62/- 2.64
  in winters. This would mean that we would have
  higher rainfall in summers but it would be quite
  variable. However, even more serious is the issue
  of winter rains that are likely to be reduced by
  1.62 percent.
• Wheat yields down by 15-18 in Southern areas,
  more droughts and some flooding in rivers. Water
  reduction unto 40
• Satellite imagery of vegetative cover and its
  behavior over last 10 years seen at SUPARCO last
  week does not give a good prognosis of the future
• For Now it is adaptation and soon it will be
  mitigation
• Climate Change is here and is going no
  where-agriculture and water are the two areas
  that will suffer the most much of what we are
  hypothesizing about is hypothetical and less is
  pragmatic.

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Factors Constraining Productivity in Kashmir

• High rainfall with changing patterns in
  precipitation, dew and frost
• Extreme events, drought periods,
• Climate changes with high variation T and P
  
• Small parcels of land, mostly tilled by
  womenfolk
• Open grazing systems and marginalized group
  relying on forest, grasses for livelihood
• A disturbed land resource following earth quake,
  populations still in distress with reduced
  numbers

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• Little if any modern agriculture
  infrastructure
• Livestock is dominant activity and based
• on pastoral system with negative impacts on
  trees
• Costly and high risk inputs like fertilizer,
  pesticides
• and weedicides not used and from 2007/8 onwards
  major quantum jumps
• Infrastructure challenges for a changed
  agriculture

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Livestock Feed or Fuel
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Green House for Nursery and vegetables
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Low Cost Plastic Tunnel
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The Road Ahead
A clear realization that cc is a reality not a
fiction Realizing AJK Comparative Advantage-
turning constraints into opportunities Going for
a market based agriculture and specializing
into crops that are adaptive to climate
change. Investing in new environments and
production technologies Gaining Clarity between
and within enterprises Keeping youth in
agriculture Institutional Constraints- i.e.
micro financing at times Small is beautiful
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Thank You !