Modeling C2 Decision-Making Processes Operational Perspectives

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Modeling C2 Decision-Making ProcessesOperational
Perspectives

• Summer Workshop
• July/August 2001

Dr. Richard E. (Dick) Hayes Evidence Based
Research, Inc.
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Models Must Allow forNon-Linear and Cascading
Effects

• In war, trivial causes produce momentous
  results.
• Julius Caesar

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Models Must Be Complete

• My 3 tells me what I can do, my 4 tells me what
  I cannot.
• Omar Bradley
• The following three factors basically affect an
  air-superiority campaign materiel, personnel,
  and position.
• John A. Warden III
• An Army marches on its stomach.
• Napolean Bonaparte

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Models Must Reflect Fog and Friction

• Everything in war is very simple, but the
  simplest thing is difficult. These difficulties
  accumulate and end by producing a kind of
  friction that is inconceivable unless one has
  experienced war.
• Carl von Clausewitz
• War is a catalogue of blunders.
• Winston Churchill
• Battle is a fog for the men who fight. The small
  unit will usually remain in the dark about its
  own achievements unless someone from higher up
  clarifies the big picture.
• S. L. A. Marshall

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Models Must Provide Stochastic Results

• Something must be left to chance, nothing is
  sure in a sea fight.
• Horatio Nelson
• An important difference between the military
  operation and a surgical operation is that the
  patient is tied down. But it is a common fault of
  generalship to assume that he is.
• B. H. Liddell Hart
• The trouble with air power, I had warned the
  President, is that you leave the initiative in
  the hands of the enemy. He gets to decide when he
  has had enough.
• Colin Powell

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Models Must Be Probabilistic

• Military Science consists in calculating all the
  chances accurately in the first place, and then
  in giving accident exactly, almost
  mathematically, its place in ones calculations.
  It is upon this point that one must not deceive
  oneself, and yet a decimal more or less may
  change all.
• Napoleon Bonaparte
• Circumstances vary so enormously in war, and are
  so indefinable, that a vast array of factors has
  to be appreciated -- mostly in the light of
  probabilities alone.
• Carl von Clausewitz

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Models Must Be Two-Sided,With A Capable,
Learning Adversary

• You do not assume away any capability the enemy
  has.
• H. Norman Schwarzkopf
• We have moved into a new era of strategy that is
  very different to what was assumed by the
  advocates of air-atomic power. The strategy now
  being developed by our opponents is inspired by
  the dual idea of evading and hamstringing
  air-atomic power. Ironically, the further we have
  developed the massive effect of the bombing
  weapons, the more we have helped the progress of
  this new guerrilla-type strategy.
• B. H. Liddell Hart

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Models of C2 Decision Making Must Reflect
Agility, Particularly Selecting the Times and
Places to Fight

• Japan failed to see the new concept of war which
  was used against her, involving the by-passing of
  strongly-defended points and, by the use of the
  combined services, the cutting of essential lines
  of communication, whereby these defensive
  positions were rendered strategically useless and
  eventually retaken.
• Douglas MacArthur
• Mahan was right to emphasize that it is the
  foremost responsibility of every battle fleet
  commander to concentrate forces and win battles
  with tactical skill. Corbett was right to
  emphasize that strategic considerations determine
  whether a decisive battle should occur.
• Wayne P. Hughes

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Models Must Be Able to ReflectNew Ways of Doing
Business

• The only thing harder than getting a new idea
  into the military mind is to get an old one out.
• B. H. Liddell Hart
• Nothing remains static in war or in military
  weapons, and it is consequently often dangerous
  to rely on courses suggested by apparent
  similarities to the past.
• Admiral Ernest Joseph King
• The military mind always imagines that the next
  war will be on the same lines as the last. That
  never was the case and never will be.
• Marshall Ferdinand Foch

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Models Must EnableNaturalistic Decision Making

• After a battle is over people talk a lot about
  how decisions were methodically reached, but
  actually theres always a hell of a lot of
  groping around.
• Admiral Frank Fletcher

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Summary

• Models Must Allow for Non-Linear and Cascading
  Effects
• Models Must Be Complete
• Models Must Reflect Fog and Friction
• Models Must Provide Stochastic Results
• Models Must Be Probabilistic
• Models Must Be Two-Sided, With A Capable,
  Learning Adversary
• Models of C2 Decision Making Must Reflect
  Agility, Particularly Selecting the Times and
  Places to Fight
• Models Must Be Able to Reflect New Ways of Doing
  Business
• Models Must Enable Naturalistic Decision Making