Its the Economy, Stupid

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• Its the Economy, Stupid

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Plan For Today

• Is this really true?
• Lessons for Accountability
• Lessons for Representation
• The Value of Comparison

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Are Elections All About the Economy?

• Forecasting (Brad Lockerbie PS Jan 2005)

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Are Elections All About the Economy?

• Forecasting (Brad Lockerbie PS Jan 2005)

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Are Elections All About the Economy? (2)

• Economys Impact Varies Over Time (Lin 1999)
• Prior to the Great Depression
• 1940-1968
• 1972-Present
• Economys Impact Varies Across Countries
  (Lewis-Beck 1988)
• UKgtGermanygtFrancegtItaly

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Are Elections All About the Economy? (3)

• Differences Across Region in GNP Growth and
  Changes in Incumbents Partys Support

Latin America and Caribbean
OECD
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Are Elections All About the Economy? (4)
Exceptions across voters
-Variations in the Self-Reported Basis of
Evaluating Menem (1995) -1497 respondents, Up to
3 responses allowed
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Implications of Variation

• Policy Reform and Manipulation
• Democratic Practice

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• Why Does the Economys Impact Vary So Much Across
  Countries, Time Periods, and Individuals?
• The Processes of Accountability
• The Demands of Representation

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Accountability

• What does accountability mean in the context
  of elections?
• Under what conditions is it harder or easier to
  hold politicians accountable for economic
  outcomes?

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Accountability

• Information
• Available
• Unbiased in presentation and interpretation

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Economic Perceptions and Voting in American
Congressional Elections
Source USA Today Nov 8, 2A
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Economic Perceptions and Voting in American
Congressional Elections
Source USA Today Nov 8, 2A
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Economic Perceptions and Voting in American
Congressional Elections
Source USA Today Nov 8, 2A
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(No Transcript)
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Accountability

• Information
• Responsibility
• Alternatives

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Accountability

• Implications for Policy Reform
• Implications for Democratic Practice

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Representation

• What does Representation mean in the context
  of elections?
• What factors shape the demands voters place on
  their elected agents?

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Representation

• Space on the National Agenda
• Space on the Personal Agenda

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Example Welfare
Welfare Benefits and Economic Voting in Mexico
2003
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Example Welfare
Welfare Benefits and Economic Voting in State
Legislative Elections
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Representation

• Implications for Policy Reform
• Implications for Democratic Practice

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Summary

• Economys impact is universal and also highly
  contingent
• Accountability and Representation both affect
  electoral processes and outcomes

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Mexico 2006

• Economy Relatively Strong
• 36 of Voters Credited/Blamed the Government
• 49 Saw Economy as Moderately Salient, 16 Saw it
  as Highly Salient

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Mexico 2006
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Summary

• Economys impact is universal and also highly
  contingent
• Accountability and Representation both affect
  electoral processes and outcomes
• Broader Lesson Why Compare?

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Lesson

• THE CONTEXT MATTERS!!!