Fall line Air Quality Study

1
Fall line Air Quality Study
Briefing to the State of Georgia March 29, 2005

• Final Report An analysis of air quality and
  options for managing it in Middle Georgia

2
About the FAQS

• Goal to provide all stakeholders with an
  objective and unbiased evaluation of air quality
  in Middle Georgia that they may use to develop an
  effective and efficient plan for improving it.
• Objectives to assess urban and regional air
  pollution, identify the sources of pollutants and
  pollutant precursors, and evaluate potential
  solutions to realized and potential poor air
  quality in the Augusta, Macon, and Columbus
  metropolitan areas.
• Methodology Field Studies, Modeling Studies, and
  Cost Studies
• Duration 44 months (May 2000 December 2004)
• Cost 2.8 million sponsored by GA EPD and GA DOT

3
FAQS A Mammoth Team Effort!
Principal Investigator Dr. Michael E.
Chang Co-Principal Investigators Dr. Armistead
Russell Dr. Karsten Baumann Investigators Dr.
Yongtao Hu Dr. Dan Cohan Ms. Di Tian Ms.
Rosa Chi Dr. Rodney Weber Dr. Michael
Bergin Dr. Doug Worsnop Dr. Carlos
Cardelino
Senior Advisors Dr. C. S. Kiang Dr. William
Chameides
many more!!
4
(No Transcript)
5
Ground-level OzoneFormation
Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs)
Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)
Ozone (O3) Smog

Combustion Processes
Fuels, Paints, Solvents, Vegetation
6
Fall line Air Quality Study
Effect of Existing State and Federal Controls on
Augusta, Macon, and Columbus
7
Summary of FAQS NOx and VOC emissions inventories
for the year 2000 daily totals (in tons/day)
a. Includes Richmond, Columbia, Mc Duffie
counties of GA, and Aiken and Edgefield counties
of SC. b. Includes Muscogee, Chattahoochee, and
Harris of GA and Russell county of AL. c.
Includes Bibb, Houston, Jones, Peach, and Twiggs
counties of GA.
8
Daily maximum ozone on August 17, 2000 in
the 12-km grid (on the left) and in the 4-km grid
(on the right)
9
Summary of FAQS NOx and VOC emissions inventories
for the year 2007 daily totals (in tons/day)
a. Includes Richmond, Columbia, Mc Duffie
counties of GA, and Aiken and Edgefield counties
of SC. b. Includes Muscogee, Chattahoochee, and
Harris of GA and Russell county of AL. c.
Includes Bibb, Houston, Jones, Peach, and Twiggs
counties of GA.
10
Daily maximum ozone on August 17, 2000 in the
12-km grid (on the left) and in the 4-km grid
(on the right)
Daily maximum ozone concentrations in the 12-km
grid (on the left) and in the 4-km grid (on the
right) on August 17 when FAQS2007 emissions are
used
11
Estimated Change in Region Maximum of Peak 8-hour
Surface Ozone from August 17th, 2000 to 2007
under the Existing Federal Control Strategies
(ppbv)
Results shown for FAQS 4km grid
12
(No Transcript)
13
Current
Projected (assumes 10 benefit due to
full implementation of existing control strategy
for Atlanta and the region)
14
Current
Projected (assumes 10 benefit due to
full implementation of existing control strategy
for Atlanta and the region)
15
Current
Projected (assumes 10 benefit due to
full implementation of existing control strategy
for Atlanta and the region)
16
Daily maximum ozone on August 17, 2000 in the
12-km grid for FAQS2000, FAQS2007, and FAQS2012
Emissions
2000
2007
2012
17
Estimated Change in Region Maximum of Peak 8-hour
Surface Ozone from August 17th, 2000 to 2007 to
2012 under the Existing Federal Control
Strategies (ppbv)
Results shown for FAQS 12km grid
18
About Ozone Nonattainment in the Macon Area

• By virtue of monitored ozone concentrations
  (design value 0.086 ppm), the Macon area is
  currently failing to attain the National Ambient
  Air Quality Standard (0.085 ppm).
• FAQS modeling suggests that controls beyond those
  already programmed may be required to bring the
  Macon area into attainment by 2007 and to
  maintain attainment through 2012.

19
About Ozone Nonattainment in the Augusta Area

• By virtue of monitored ozone concentrations
  (design value 0.083 ppm), the Augusta area is
  currently meeting the National Ambient Air
  Quality Standard (0.085 ppm).
• FAQS modeling suggests that the Augusta area will
  continue to attain the standard through 2012
  assuming that existing control strategies are
  fully implemented and that growth projections are
  reasonable.

20
About Ozone Nonattainment in the Columbus Area

• By virtue of monitored ozone concentrations
  (2002-2004 design value 0.072 ppm), the
  Columbus area is currently meeting the National
  Ambient Air Quality Standard (0.085 ppm).
• FAQS modeling suggests that the Columbus area
  will continue to attain the standard through 2012
  assuming that existing control strategies are
  fully implemented and that growth projections are
  reasonable.

21
Fall line Air Quality Study
Additional Controls for Macon
22
Year 2007 attainment modeling for 8-hour ozone in
Macon
aRelative reduction factor is the ratio of Year
2007 and Base Year modeled concentrations. bAnnual
4th highest 8-hour ozone observations, averaged
over three years straddling the episode base
year. cProduct of RRF and the observed design
value. dMinimal reduction in Year 2007 modeled
concentrations for which RRFDesignValue lt 85
ppb. eExcludes three days with modeled Base Year
O3 lt 70 ppb, in accordance with EPA methodology.
23
Potential Controls for Point Sources in the Macon
Area
24
Potential Controls for Additional Sources in the
Macon Area
25
Taken together, the menu of measures represents
the potential to control 20-35 of NOx and VOC in
Georgia regions, but with marginal costs
increasing rapidly beyond 15-20 reductions
26
Emissions and Sensitivity of Ozone to those
Emissions in Macon in 2007
27
If Macon needs to reduce ozone concentrations by
2.7 ppb, the optimized annualized cost is
estimated to be 750,000 primarily for low-cost
NOx controls for industrial sources and local
locomotives in the Macon region.
28
Why so cheap?

• Measures assumed to have zero net
  costcontinuation of lower-emitting Powder River
  Basin (PRB) coal at Scherer, a seasonal burning
  ban, parking pricing, replacement of water
  heaters, and the planned closure of Brown
  Williamson Tobaccoachieve 2.1 ppb of the
  reduction, 1.8 ppb of which is due to the PRB
  coal.

29
The least-cost approach to reduce Macon ozone by
the necessary 6.4 ppb would be an ensemble of
measures totaling 72.6 million annually.
Participation from neighboring Georgia regions is
essential, as full implementation of all
considered control measures within the Macon
region would not quite achieve the necessary
reduction.
30
Major components of least-cost Macon attainment
strategy August 1999 episode
31
Creating a Margin of Safety in Augusta
Fall line Air Quality Study
32
Current
Projected (assumes 10 benefit due to
full implementation of existing control strategy
for Atlanta and the region)
33
Potential Controls for Point Sources in the
Augusta Area
34
Potential Controls for Point Sources in the
Augusta Area (Continued)
35
Potential Controls for Additional Sources in the
Augusta / Middle GA Area
36
Taken together, the menu of measures represents
the potential to control 20-35 of NOx and VOC
(not shown) in Georgia regions, but with marginal
costs increasing rapidly beyond 15-20 reductions
37
Emissions and Sensitivity of Ozone to those
Emissions in Augusta in 2007
38
Sensitivity (ppt/ton/day) of ozone at the Augusta
EPD monitor to incremental emissions(August 2000
Episode August 1999 sensitivities are similar)
39
Total annual cost (millions of Year 2000 U.S. )
of the least-cost strategy for each monitor as a
function of the amount of ozone reduced, based on
sensitivity analysis of the August 1999 and
August 2000 meteorological episodes, with Year
2007 projected emissions. For each monitor, the
curve represents the aggregate cost of
implementing measures from any of the regions in
order of cost-effectiveness until each level of
ozone reduction is attained.
40
To Reduce Ozone by 1 ppb
Least-cost 3.57 million
Augusta Only 5.02 million
Note The sensitivity of ozone in Augusta to
emissions in Augusta are likely understated. This
leads to costs that are overstated as more
controls are required to meet objectives.
41
? To Reduce Ozone by 2 ppb
Least-cost 30.35 million
? To Reduce Ozone by 3 ppb
Least-cost 294.86 million
42
Fall line Air Quality Study
Quality Growth in Columbus
43
Current
Projected (assumes 10 benefit due to
full implementation of existing control strategy
for Atlanta and the region)
44
Potential Controls for Point Sources in the
Columbus Area
45
Potential Controls for Additional Sources in the
Columbus / Middle GA Area
46
Taken together, the menu of measures represents
the potential to control 20-35 of NOx and VOC
(not shown) in Georgia regions, but with marginal
costs increasing rapidly beyond 15-20 reductions
47
Emissions and Sensitivity of Ozone to those
Emissions in Columbus in 2007
Negative or Negligible
48
Total annual cost (millions of Year 2000 U.S. )
of the least-cost strategy for each monitor as a
function of the amount of ozone reduced, based on
sensitivity analysis of the August 1999 and
August 2000 meteorological episodes, with Year
2007 projected emissions. For each monitor, the
curve represents the aggregate cost of
implementing measures from any of the regions in
order of cost-effectiveness until each level of
ozone reduction is attained.
49
To Reduce Ozone by 1 ppb
Least-cost 3.14 million
Columbus Only 8.95 million
Note The sensitivity of ozone in Columbus to
emissions in Columbus are likely understated.
This leads to costs that are overstated as more
controls are required to meet objectives.
50
? To Reduce Ozone by 2 ppb
Least-cost 58.45 million
51
To Reduce Ozone by 3 ppb cant do it.
52
Finally, A Few Words about PM2.5
On 17 December 2004, the US EPA
designated nonattainment
areas of the country that
failed to meet the fine particulate
matter NAAQS including
Russell (AL) and Muscogee counties in the
Columbus area, and other counties in or near
Atlanta, Macon, Athens, Rome, and Chattanooga, TN.
53
Q Will the Existing Atlanta/Regional ozone
strategy, which helps the Fall line cities with
ozone, also help with PM2.5?
2000
2007
A Not likely. FAQS modeling shows little change
in PM2.5 concentrations resulting from existing
state and regional controls enacted for ozone.
Ozone
PM2.5
54
Fall line Air Quality Study

• Final Report An analysis of air quality and
  options for managing it in Middle Georgia

Complete Report and Executive Summary Available
at http//cure.eas.gatech.edu/faqs/finalreport
Send Questions and Comments to chang_at_eas.gatech.
edu