Global Climate Change: Uncertainties, Impacts, Action

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Global Climate Change Uncertainties, Impacts,
Action

• January 30, 2008

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Scientific Agreement
Scientific Agreement

• What is level of agreement about climate change?

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IPCC 2007 WGI SPM
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IPCC 2007 WGI SPM
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Driving Forces of Increased GHGs?

• Activities include?

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What Uncertainties Remain?
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Melting of gas hydrates In Oceanic deposits
Ocean Temperature Increase
Atmospheric Temperature Increase
Methane Release
Sediments move
Permafrost melts
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An example of feedback effects
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Models Used

• A1T, A1FI, A1B
• A2
• B1
• B2

Source http//www.vitalgraphics.net/_documents /c
lmate_change_update.v15.pdf page 6
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IPCC 2007 WGI SPM Figure.5
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IPCC 2007 WGI SPM Figure 7
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Impacts

• Ecosystems
• Human Systems

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Various impacts of global warming
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Vulnerability Based on

• Biophysical risk
• Social risk
• Place vulnerability (interplay of two)
• Source Cutter, S.L., J.T. Mitchell, and M.S.
  Scott. 2000. Revealing the Vulnerability of
  People and Places A Case Study of Georgetown
  County, SC. Annals of the Association of American
  Geographer 90(4)713-737.

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Africa Vulnerability

• Desertification
• Sea level rise
• Reduced freshwater
• Cyclones
• Coastal erosion
• Deforestation/reduced forest health
• Coral bleaching
• Malaria, cholera expansion
• Reduced food security

http//www.vitalgraphics.net/_documents/ clmate_ch
ange_update.v15.pdf page 18
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CO Industrial
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Melting ice caps, ice sheets and glaciers ?
impacts on sea level rise, water supply,
wildlife, and feedback effects
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CO2 Land Use
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Total loss of Greenland ice sheet alone would
lead to sea level rise of almost 8 meters (25
feet)
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Additional sea level rise will be caused by
melting ice in Antarctica, as well as the loss of
glaciers and thermal expansion of the oceans
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Flood Barriers on the Thames River
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Areas of Florida inundated by a 6-meter sea level
rise
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Higher sea levels increased storm frequency and
intensity higher storm surges and increased
coastal flooding of coastal areas
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Global Cost of Extreme Weather Events
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Glaciers play a critical role in local water
supply for drinking and agriculture in many of
these areas
Rapidly shrinking glaciers have been observed in
North America, South America, Europe, Africa and
Asia
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Easton Glacier, GNP, US
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Comparisons to Ozone?

• Considerations for Action
• Scale or Spatial Extent of Problem
• Level of Risk
• Reversibility (or irreversibility)
• Others?

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Actions?

• Mitigation
• Adaptation

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Policy Players

• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
  Change
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• The Kyoto Protocol
• Private Businesses (emissions trading)
• Individual and collaborative political units

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New England Governors and Eastern Canadian
Premiers
Agree to reduce to 1990 levels by 2010 Agree to
reduce to 10 1990 by 2020
Regional Scale
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MissionTo build and serve a worldwide movement
of local governments to achieve tangible
improvements in global environmental and
sustainable development conditions through local
cumulative actions
Local Scale
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Cities for Climate Protection

• 579 cities worldwide and 146 cities in US
• What does membership mean to these cities?
• What have they done?
• Well pester til you sequester

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Only cities and towns?

• Institutions
• Colleges and universities
• Individually and collective (Focus the Nation,
  American University and College Presidents
  Climate Commitment
• Businesses
• BP, Stonyfield Farm, Stop and Shop
• Timberland, Kinkos, Verizon