Yesterdays Dinner, Tomorrows Weather: Todays News

1
Yesterdays Dinner, Tomorrows Weather Todays
News?

• Roni Neff, PhD SM Rneff_at_jhsph.edu
• Research Director
• Center for a Livable Future
• Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
• October 3, 2007

2
Overview

• Climate Change
• Food/agriculture contributions
• Media analysis
• Methods
• Results
• Conclusions
• What we can do

3
JHU Center for a Livable Future
www.jhsph.edu/clf
4
Climate ChangeTomorrows Todays Weather
5
Mean Temps since 1000
ipcc
6
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) 4th Report 2007

• Warming Unequivocal
• Human-caused
• 3.5-8o F rise by 2100
• 1oF warming unavoidable
• US contribution
• 5 world population
• 25 greenhouse gas emissions

IPCC 2007 NYT 2/3/07
7
Effects on agriculture
8
Mid-to-High Latitude
Low Latitude

• 1-3o C
• Some higher latitudes neutral or slight
  benefit
• Lower latitudes detrimental
• gt 3o C
• Detrimental in all latitudes

Maize
Wheat
Rice
IPCC 2007
9
Already Happening

• Earlier spring
• leaves, bird migration, egg laying
• Poleward/upward shifts in species geographic
  ranges
• Extreme weather, drought
• Pests, invasive species
• Biodiversity loss

Broccoli in Greenland
10
New Plant Hardiness Zones
11

• We are all used to talking about these impacts
  coming in the lifetimes of our children and
  grandchildren.
• Now we know that it's us.
• -Martin Parry, co-chair IPCC

12
Who Is Affected

• Everyone
• The poor
• Children
• Elderly
• Affected areas lacking adaptive capacity,
  including
• Areas such as Arctic, Sub-Saharan Africa, Asian
  Megadeltas
• Land types such as island/coastal, dry tropics,
  low latitude agriculture, etc.

13
Food / Agriculture Contributions to Climate
Change

• Yesterdays Todays Dinner

14
Everybody Eats
15
Food System

• Food production, food processing, and everything
  it takes to bring food from farm to fork
• Land use
• Agriculture
• Processing
• Transportation
• Storage

• Packaging
• Marketing
• Selling
• Cooking
• Waste Disposal

16
IPCC 2007

• global increases in carbon dioxide (CO2)
  concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel
  use and land use change, while those of methane
  (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are primarily due
  to agriculture .  
• (emphases added)

17
Causes of Deforestation in the Amazon, 2000-2005
Small scale, subsistence agriculture, 33
Cattle ranches, 60
http//www.mongabay.com/images/rainforests/defores
tation-in-the-amazon.jpg based on inpe data.
Accessed 9-6-07
18
Pew Center on Global Climate Change 2006

• 1/3 anthropogenic warming associated with
  greenhouse gases from worldwide agriculture and
  land use change
• 8 in U.S.

19
U.N. F.A.O. 2006Livestocks Long Shadow

• Livestock production 18 world anthropogenic
  greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 equivalents)
• More than transportations contribution

UN FAO 2006
20
http//www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/figure_es1.
html
21
Methane

• 21x Global Warming Potential of CO2
• Enteric fermentation causes 71 US ag emissions
  (EPA estimate)
• Quality of feed / digestibility of grasses
• Animal manure cesspits
• Vs. pasture
• Rice paddies

UN FAO 2006, EPA 2005
22
(No Transcript)
23
Nitrous Oxide

• 286X global warming potential of CO2, stays in
  atmosphere 114 yrs
• Nitrogen-based fertilizers a top source
• 51 US nitrogen is used for fertilizers for
  animal feed/pasture
• Role of corn

UN FAO 2006, EPA2005
24
Carbon Dioxide

• Energy
• Food processing, transportation, cooling,
• heating, light, storage, facility needs, etc.
• Manufacturing
• Fossil-fuel based pesticides, fertilizers,
• packaging, food items, plastic bags, etc

25
60,000 plastic bags, the number used in the US
every five seconds.
Plastic Bags, 2007. http//www.chrisjordan.com/c
urrent_set2.php?id7
26
Partial zoom
27
Detail at actual size
28
Sinks

• Soil and plant life trap greenhouse gases
• Conservation programs beneficial
• Agricultural practices release these
• Land clearing, tilling, poor soil mgt, others

Lower-Fossil Fuel Energy

• Crops, methane used to produce energy

29
Effects Variable, Interactive, Complex

• Local conditions, species, weather, energy
  efficiency, etc.
• The old sustainable isnt enough
• No till vs. organic
• Buy local hothouse emissions ship emissions
  may be lower than truck
• Vegetarian extra dairy intake, air freight
  vegetables
• CAFO vs. grass-fed animal production

30
Quantifying Energy Used in Food Production

• US food production responsible for
• 10.5 US energy use
• 17 US fossil fuel use
• Projected rise in food production energy use
• 0.9 / yr

Heller Keolian 2000 Unruh 2002 Pimentel
Pimentel 1996
31
Quantifying Food Greenhouse Gases

• (Much more going on in Europe!)
• UK Food Climate Research Network
• Around 19 (probable underestimate)
• EU Environmental impact of products (EIPRO)
  report (2006)
• Food and drink 20-30 of environmental impacts
  of EU consumption

Environmental impact of products (EIPRO)
Analysis of the life cycle environmental impacts
related to the total final consumption of the
EU25, European Science and Technology Observatory
and Institute for Prospective Technological
studies, full report, May 2006.
http//ec.europa.eu/environment/ipp/identifying.ht
m
32
Food Climate Research Network (UK)
Food Contribution Summed 19
Garnett T. 2007
33
Klaas Jan Kramer, Henri C Moll, Sanderine
Nonhebel, Harry C Wilting, Greenhouse gas
emissions related to Dutch food consumption,
Energy Policy 27 (1999) 203-216,. Slide Garnett T
34
(No Transcript)
35
Individual Level Solutions
36
8.8
64 reduction from current
5.5
3.2
1.8
Lancet Per capita consumption to stabilize
livestock greenhouse gas emissions at 2005 levels
by 2050 (McMichael et al 2007 also USDA, USDA
ERS)
37
(No Transcript)
38
Individual Level

• Eat
• Less meat/dairy
• More low-processing, seasonal, long shelf-life,
  local
• Less packaging / bring own bag
• Reduce refrigeration, freezing
• Reduce trips to store
• Less
• Problems include
• Hard to make and sustain
• Food environment not supportive
• Not always clear what to buy

39
Business Level
40
Bon Appetit Low Carbon Diet

• Reducing beef by 25
• All meat, poultry from North America
• Nearly all fruits/vegetables from North America
• Seasonal local produce
• Tropical fruits as special occasion
• Domestic bottled water, reducing plastic bottle
  waste
• Goal reduce food waste by 25, 3 years
• Auditing equipment energy efficiency
• Carbon point system to aid in calculating impact

41
Climate Counts (Stonyfield Farms)

• Climate scorecard for businesses
• Identify quantify emissions
• Set goals establish internal management
• Achieve reductions
• Encourage reductions by others
• Support public policy
• Reporting

42
US Patent 6,982,161Process for the
utilization of ruminant animal methane emissions

• as a source of carbon and/or energy for the
  production of methane-utilizing microorganisms in
  a microorganism growth-and-harvest apparatus. 

43
Agricultural Industry Changes

• Attainable best management practices could ag
  GG emissions by 5-14 (Pew)
• Example Soil management
• Reduce tilling
• Control erosion, cover crops
• Add organic matter
• Avoid overgrazing
• Avoid excessive fertilizers
• Avoid salinization

44
Government-Level

• Is individual and voluntary change enough?
• Standards labelling
• Regulation of methods, energy efficiency
• Institutional purchasing
• for research
• to stimulate enterprise / local markets
• for communication campaigns
• Food/ag policy integrated into climate change
  policy

45

• Public Awareness,
• the News Media

46
Newspaper articleson climate change 19852003
(UK)
Carvalho Burgess 2005
47
Public Awareness Concern

• 33 Americans rate climate change as worlds top
  environmental problem (Wash Post 4/07)
• 16 in 2006
• Events
• Katrina/Rita, Inconvenient Truth, Stern Review on
  Economics of CC, IPCC 4th Report, Congressional
  policy proposals, etc

48
Newspapers

• Raise awareness
• Source of record
• Policy impact
• Broad readership

49
Factors Affecting Media Agenda

• Objective newsworthiness
• Journalist/editor judgment
• Issue promotion by interest groups
• Pressures of the medium such as to identify a
  good story, conflict, local angle
• Advertiser pressures
• Coverage in other news outlets
• Fixable problem, non-individual responsibility

Clayman 1998, Song 2004, Dorfman 2001, Smith
2005, Wallack 1993, An 2007, Lawrence 2004
50
Is Media Coverage Enough?

• Media
• Key role in shaping issues considered important
• Coverage associated with behavior change
• Article framing
• Influences how audiences perceive problems
  assign responsibility for solving
• BUT
• Relationships not simple linear
• Knowledge/intention ? action

Wallack 1993, Clegg Smith 2006, Institute of
Medicine 2002, Kiousis 2004, Smith 2005, Carvalho
2007, Jackson 2005, Stamm 2000, Krosnick 2006
51
Media Analysis ProjectTodays News?
52
Research Questions

• Describe Coverage on a) climate change b) food
  system contributions to climate change
• What are the news media presenting to the public
  about food contributions to climate change?
• How is the information framed?

53

• Methods

54
Sample
16 of top 20 U.S. newspapers based on circulation

• New York Times
• Washington Post
• Chicago Tribune
• Philadelphia Inquirer
• Rocky Mountain News (Denver)
• Houston Chronicle
• New York Post
• Detroit Free Press

• Dallas Morning News
• Minneapolis Star Tribune
• Boston Globe
• Newark Star-Ledger
• Atlanta Journal-Constitution
• Arizona Republic
• Long Island Newsday
• San Francisco Chronicle

• Total circulation averages 10.7 m / day
• Disproportionate policy impact

55
Search/Sampling Strategy
Selected Newspapers, 9/05 4/07
All Climate Change Articles (N2830)
Climate Change Sample (N600 ?658)
Food Climate Change Pre-selection (N289 ?
52)
extended to 8/07 20 more
Food Climate Change articles mention
food, farm, or agriculture in text
Climate Change articles mention climate
change or global warming headline or 1st
paragraph
56
Coding / Analysis

• 2 coders
• Resolving discordance
• Inter-rater kappa
• Climate change analysis 0.66 (0.78 after
  exclusions)
• Food and climate change 0.51
• Analyses
• Descriptive

57
Livestocks Long Shadow Search

• Examined direct references to this landmark
  report covering food animal contributions to
  climate change
• 1,826 international newspapers
• Informal count/reading of articles

58
Summary Findings
RESULTS REMOVED UNTIL AFTER PUBLICATION
59
Articles by Month
RESULTS REMOVED UNTIL AFTER PUBLICATION
60
Articles by Newspaper
RESULTS REMOVED UNTIL AFTER PUBLICATION
61
Type of Article
RESULTS REMOVED UNTIL AFTER PUBLICATION
62
Top Cause of Climate Change
RESULTS REMOVED UNTIL AFTER PUBLICATION
63
Part of Food System Contributing to Climate Change
RESULTS REMOVED UNTIL AFTER PUBLICATION
64
If Recommended Actions How Many?
RESULTS REMOVED UNTIL AFTER PUBLICATION
65
If Recommended Action, How Many Related to Food?
RESULTS REMOVED UNTIL AFTER PUBLICATION
66
Food Articles Who is Responsible for Action
RESULTS REMOVED UNTIL AFTER PUBLICATION
67
Livestocks Long Shadow
RESULTS REMOVED UNTIL AFTER PUBLICATION
68
Strengths/Limitations

• Limitations
• External validity
• Possibly missed articles
• Subjectivity

• Strengths
• Large newspaper sample
• 2 coders, high kappa
• Multiple lines of evidence

69
Why is Coverage so Low?

• History late to be recognized, CC experts focus
  in other areas, CO2 bias
• Harder to get information about impacts, esp in
  US
• Some of responses also unclear
• Food issues individual lens, so less policy
  import/newsworthiness
• Advocacy groups less focus
• ?? Impact of supermarket advertising in
  newspapers??

70
Opportunities to Increase Coverage

• Reporters in need of an angle on climate change
• Framing
• Story, local, conflict, events, consumer/health
  interest, investigative pieces
• Envtl advocacy groups increasingly interested
• Need a champion

71
Conclusions

• Urgency of action
• Low awareness / coverage
• Not always what wed want to say
• Opportunity
• For food and nutrition community

72
Todays News?

• More awareness leads to
• Consumer demand for lower-emission food and
  related labeling
• Industry action to reduce emissions
• Sustainable agriculture/food production methods
• Governmental carrots and sticks
• Research into mitigation methods

73
Thought/Discussion Questions

• Strategy for increasing attention to this issue
• Who can be the champion?
• How can climate change be incorporated into other
  food/nutrition policy communications and
  activities?
• How can we frame a message about eating less meat
  that avoids risk of out of touch?
• Comments on research methods or findings?

74
Acknowledgements

• Research
• Iris Chan (student co-investigator)
• Dr. Kathryn Clegg Smith (media analysis methods)
• Anne Rosenthal (coding)
• Seminar
• Dr. Jennie Coates (invitation/arrangements, etc.)
• Becca Klein (summer intern at CLF, connections)
• Genevieve Alelis (title)
• Funding
• Johns Hopkins Center for a Livable Future