Is a big population good or bad?

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Immigration in America Understanding the
Numbers This presentation is available at
http//www.macalester.edu/bressoud/talks June
2125, 2004
David Bressoud, Mathematics, Macalester
College Kathy Fennelly, Immigration Public
Policy, Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, U
MN Steve Holland, Economics Political Science,
Macalester College
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literate adj. 1. Able to read and write 2.
Educated, knowledgeable
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literate adj. 1. Able to read and write 2.
Educated, knowledgeable
numerate adj. 1. Able to do arithmetic and
simple geometry 2. Educated, knowledgeable
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• Quantitatively literate citizenship
• Understand comparative magnitudes of risk and
  significance of very small numbers (10 ppm)
• Understand that unusual events can easily occur
  by chance (eg. Cancer clusters)
• Analyze economic and demographic data to support
  or oppose policy proposals
• Understand difference between rates of change and
  changes in rates, between average and marginal
  rates, and between linear and exponential rates
  of growth
• Appreciate common sources of bias in surveys

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• "Numeracy is not the same as mathematics, nor is
  it an alternative to mathematics. Rather, it is
  an equal and supporting partner in helping
  students learn to cope with the quantitative
  demands of modern society. Whereas mathematics is
  a well-established discipline, numeracy is
  necessarily interdisciplinary. Like writing,
  numeracy must permeate the curriculum. When it
  does, also like writing, it will enhance
  students' understanding of all subjects and their
  capacity to lead informed lives."
• Lynn Arthur Steen, Mathematics and Democracy The
  Case for Quantitative Literacy, NCED, 2001.

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• "Numeracy is not the same as mathematics, nor is
  it an alternative to mathematics. Rather, it is
  an equal and supporting partner in helping
  students learn to cope with the quantitative
  demands of modern society. Whereas mathematics is
  a well-established discipline, numeracy is
  necessarily interdisciplinary. Like writing,
  numeracy must permeate the curriculum. When it
  does, also like writing, it will enhance
  students' understanding of all subjects and their
  capacity to lead informed lives."
• Lynn Arthur Steen, Mathematics and Democracy The
  Case for Quantitative Literacy, NCED, 2001.

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• "Numeracy is not the same as mathematics, nor is
  it an alternative to mathematics. Rather, it is
  an equal and supporting partner in helping
  students learn to cope with the quantitative
  demands of modern society. Whereas mathematics is
  a well-established discipline, numeracy is
  necessarily interdisciplinary. Like writing,
  numeracy must permeate the curriculum. When it
  does, also like writing, it will enhance
  students' understanding of all subjects and their
  capacity to lead informed lives."
• Lynn Arthur Steen, Mathematics and Democracy The
  Case for Quantitative Literacy, NCED, 2001.

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Quantitative Methods for Public Policy
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Quantitative Methods for Public Policy

• Goals of the program

• Provide a useful, quantitative education to
  students throughout the College, including those
  who are utterly uninterested in mathematics.
• Bring together faculty from varied disciplines,
  including those disciplines that avoid
  quantitative work, to send a clear message to
  students about the advantages of examining issues
  from a quantitative perspective
• Assist faculty from all disciplines to understand
  the relevance of quantitative methods to their
  own scholarship, and enable them to make
  connections to quantitative methods in their
  classes.

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Is a big population good or bad?

• Increased drain on fixed natural resources
• Crowding, congestion, traffic
• Lower wages (supply exceeds demand)
• BUT
• Larger economy gt economies of scale
• E.g., public transportation requires high density
• Larger markets for movies, books, newspapers gt
  diversity
• Greater specialization of workers
• Benefits of open markets/free trade

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Is population increase good or bad?

• Depends on whether we are above or below the
  ideal target population.
• Too fast an increase stresses infrastructure.
• Demographic issues age structure of population,
  wage structure for workers.
• Cultural issues assimilation and tolerance
• Can we benefit from draining the brains and
  capital of other countries?
• Growth as a component of planning adding without
  cutting

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Population

• One way to estimate what our ideal population
  should be is to look at countries that we admire,
  and copy them.

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Populations of Largest Countries
China 1,246,871,951
India 1,000,848,550
United States 272,639,608
Indonesia 216,108,345
Brazil 171,853,126
Russia 146,393,569
Pakistan 138,123,359
Bangladesh 127,117,967
Japan 126,182,077
Nigeria 113,828,587
Mexico 100,294,036
Germany 82,087,361
Philippines 79,345,812
Vietnam 77,311,210
Egypt 67,273,906
Turkey 65,599,206
Iran 65,179,752
Thailand 60,609,046
Ethiopia 59,680,383
United Kingdom 59,113,439
France 58,978,172
Italy 56,735,130
Congo, Democratic Republic of the 50,481,305
Ukraine 49,811,174
Burma 48,081,302
Korea, South 46,884,800
South Africa 43,426,386
Colombia 39,309,422
Spain 39,167,744
Poland 38,608,929
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El Salvador 282
Philippines 266
Haiti 250
Jamaica 245
United Kingdom 245
Vietnam 238
Germany 235
Cyprus - Turkish Sector 225
Italy 193
Switzerland 183
Nepal 178
Korea, North 178
Pakistan 177
China 134
Poland 127
Denmark 126
Persons per square km
Hong Kong 6571
Singapore 5540
Gaza Strip 3091
Bahrain 1015
Bangladesh 949
Taiwan 685
Korea, South 477
Netherlands 466
Puerto Rico 434
Lebanon 348
Belgium 337
Japan 337
India 337
Rwanda 327
West Bank 286
Israel 283
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Indonesia 118
Uganda 114
Guatemala 114
Kuwait 112
Slovakia 111
Hungary 110
France 108
Portugal 108
Malawi 106
Serbia 103
Egypt 68
Ethiopia 53
Mexico 52
Iraq 52
Jordan 51
Somalia 11
Congo, Republic of the 8
Canada 3
Australia 2
Tanzania 35
Cameroon 33
Eritrea 33
Estonia 33
Yemen 32
Guinea 31
Liberia 30
United States 30
Faroe Islands 29
Zimbabwe 29
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Population Density is Uneven
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A Population Question

• The population of the US is approximately 300M.
• The population of Mexico is approx. 100M.
• The US added about 30M in population over the
  last decade and Mexico added about 20M.
• QUESTION If this sort of growth continues in
  both countries, will the population of Mexico
  ever exceed that of the US?

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Arithmetic Growth Model

• Add a constant amount each time period.
• Rate is described in terms of a number per time
  period e.g., 30M per decade
• This is an intuitive form of growth water into a
  bathtub, distance travelled at a constant
  velocity, age of a child.

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Geometric Growth Model

• Growth is proportional to size.
• Growth rate is described as a proportion or
  percentage per time period.
• Examples
• Population
• Bank interest
• Inflation
• For geometric growth, the quantity doubles in a
  fixed period of time, the doubling time.
• More modern term, Exponential growth.

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Doubling Time and the US Population

• US Census data
• Doubling time 25 years
• (today, the doubling time of the US population is
  about 70 years)

year Population
1790 3,929,827
1800 5,305,925
1810 7,239,814
1820 9,638,151
1830 12,866,020
1840 17,062,566
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Doubling Time Rule of 72

• To approximate the doubling time corresponding to
  small growth rates, divide 72 by the rate in
  percent.
• US approximately 1 per year, corresponds to a
  doubling time of 72 years.
• Mexico approximately 1.8 per year doubling
  time of 40 years.
• In 140 years, US would double twice, Mexico about
  3 and a half times 222v2 12 times the
  original population!

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Thus time alone relieves a debtor nation, so long
as its population increases faster than unpaid
interest accumulates on its debt. This fact
would be no excuse for delaying payment of what
is justly due compensation for owners(!) of
slaves to be emancipated in the year 1900, but
it shows the great importance of time in this
connection the great advantage of a policy by
which we shall not have to pay until we number
100,000,000 what by a different policy we would
have to pay now, when we number but
31,000,000. -Abraham Lincoln State of the
Union Address 1862