Ecosystem Modeling of Central California

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Ecosystem Modeling of Central California
NMFS Ivonne Ortiz,Isaac Kaplan, Chris Harvey,
Phil Levin and JohnField CSIRO Beth Fulton
Funding Moore Packard Foundations
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Ecosystem Modeling inFisheries Management
Goal research interactions processes
necessary to sustain ecosystem composition,
structure and function in the environments where
fish and fisheries exist.
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image A. Femia
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image Field A. Femia
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image Field A. Femia
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image Field A. Femia
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Ecosystem Modelsas integration tools

• synthesize information
• analyze potential ecosystem responses
• identify key processes that govern system
  condition

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Ecosystem Models of the California Current

• Field 2004
• Ecopath/ Ecosim
• Fisheries
• Food web
• Climate forcing with PDO
• Spatially aggregated

image A. Femia
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image J.Field
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Ecosystem Models of the California Current II

• Kaplan et al.
• Atlantis
• Fisheries
• Food web
• Habitat type
• Oceanography
• Biogeochemistry
• Spatially explicit 3D

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Atlantis models
Fully Developed SE Australia Port Phillip Bay,
Aus. Mostly Completed Westernport,
Australia Northeast US California
Current Early Stages 7 more models
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• Spatial resolution
• coarse
• biogeographical boundaries
• management areas
• economic boundaries

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• 62 surface boxes
• up to 7 depth boxes
• total 400 boxes

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• Central California
• keeping entire coast model
• increasing resolution in central California

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• Central California
• Sanctuaries
• state Marine Protected Areas

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Model input Oceanography (ROMS model courtesy of
Al Hermann, PMEL)
Temperature Salinity Water Flux
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• For each species
• Abundance per age class per area
• Consumption rates
• Diets
• Individual growth rates, length-weight
  conversions
• Max age, and age-at-maturity
• Recruitment parameters (e.g. Beverton Holt,
  Ricker, constant)
• General habitat preferences
• Dispersal and/or migratory characteristics,
  within and outside model

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• For ecosystem map
• Habitat distribution (bottom type biogenic
  habitat)

• For calibration
• Historical catch and abundance data

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• Model food web has 56 functional groups,
  including
• 3 primary producer groups
• 2 bacteria groups
• 3 infaunal invertebrate groups
• 9 epifaunal invertebrate groups
• 5 pelagic invertebrate groups
• 21 fish groups
• 3 seabird groups
• 6 marine mammal groups
• 2 detritus pools

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Model input Fisheries

• Recreating the past
• Spatial estimates of catch, or fleet dynamics
  calibrated to historical catches
• Forward Projections
• Location of spatial or seasonal closures, quotas
  or effort limits

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California Current Atlantis Outputs
Cape Flattery
Chla (mg N/m3)
Columbia River
Cape Blanco
Cape Mendocino
Monterey Bay
Point Conception
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California Current Atlantis Outputs
Small Deep Rockfish (splitnose, aurora, longspine
thornyhead ) (mg N/m3)
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California Current Atlantis Outputs
Deep corals and anemones (mg N/m3)
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California Current Atlantis Outputs
Hake (mg N/m3) April
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California Current Atlantis Outputs
Hake (mg N/m3) August
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California Current Atlantis Outputs
Hake (mg N/m3) November
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Outputs

• Abundance of
• -- primary producers and invertebrates (biomass)
• -- biogenic habitat (seagrass, corals, sponges)
• -- vertebrates, per age class also body
  condition
• Time series of catch
• Ecosystem indicators (diversity indices, mean
  size of catch, TL)
• Economic indicators (e.g. return on investment,
  gross value, quota lease value and sale value,
  capital utilization)

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• Management Strategy Evaluation
• Test assessments, monitoring, indicators, and
  management and recovery plans

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• Management Strategy Evaluation
• Can add any combination of boxes and compare
• nearshore vs offshorestate vs. federal
  waterssurface vs demersal areasprotected areas
  as a network or individually (if large enough)

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Primary producers
Detritus
Light
Nutrients
Disease, Lysis, Stress, Fouling
Primary producer
Space
Grazer B
Grazer A
Grazer C
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Vertebrate consumers (age-structured)
Nutrients
Detritus
Prey availability
Disease, Oxygen limitation
Gape limitation
Vertebratei Reserve Structure
Predator A
Prey A
Predator B
Prey B
Predator C
Prey C
Reproduction
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Fisheries age-specific catch
Carrion
Effort
Catch
Fleet A
Availability
Fleet B
Fish, age i
Catchability
Fleet C
Selectivity