African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses

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• African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses
• Afrikanske Monsun Multidisiplinære Analyser
• Afrikaanse Moesson Multidisciplinaire Analyse
• Analisi Multidisciplinare per il Monsone Africano
• Afrikanischer Monsun Multidisziplinäre Analysen
• Analisis Multidiciplinar de los Monzones
  Africanos
• Analyses Multidisciplinaires de la Mousson
  Africaine

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Role of VACS?

• AMMA to report to CLIVAR via VACS (AMMA is
  claimed by many other organisations)
• Sustainability of the observing system (ref G8
  initiatives) AMMA provides the scientific
  guidance for observational elements crucial to
  prediction
• What can VACS do to encourage conversion of
  observations to improving model skill?
• Capacity building

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AIMS

• To improve our understanding of the WAM and its
  influence on the
• physical, chemical biological environment
  regionally and globally.

(2) To provide the underpinning science that
relates variability of the WAM to issues of
health, water resources, food security
demography for West African nations and defining
and implementing relevant monitoring prediction
strategies.
(3)  To ensure that the multidisciplinary
research carried out in AMMA is effectively
integrated with prediction decision making
activity.
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10 years of observation and research
Long term Observations (LOP)
WA
Ocean
Regional
Enhanced Period (EOP)
E

0
0
S O P
10
3
Meso


WET
DRY
Local
2006 2007 2008
2002
2005
SOP0_a3 ?
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Building AMMA
To reach AMMA aims, need to coordinate
-Science (Challenge disciplines, scales)
-Implementation (Obs, Model,..) -Data archive
and sharing -Funding issues
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IMPACTS
Water Ressources
Land Surfaces
Ocean
Multi-disciplinary research
Public Health
Monsoon Dynamics
Food security
Socio-Economy
Aerosols Chemistry
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IGB
Endorses the Science Implementation Plans
Produces the Science Implementation Plans
Obs implementation
Integrative Science
ISSC
TT1 Radio soundings
WAM global climate (incl aerosol/chemistry)
TT2a Surface Layer
TT2b Aerosol Radiation
Water cycle
TT3 Gourma site
TT4 Niamey site
Land surface-atmosphere- ocean feedbacks
ST3 Database
ST1 EOP/LOP
TT5 Ouémé site
TT6 Oceaic campaigns
Prediction of climate impacts
TT7 SOP-Dry season
High impact weather prediction
ST2 incl AOC
TT8 SOP-Monsoon season
AMMA National Pan Scientific Committees
TT9 SOP-Downstream
ARM
Links with International Programmes (WCRP, IGBP,
THORPEX, ..)
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International Scientific Steering Committee
Membership Ernest Afiesimama, Abel Afouda, Abou
Amani, Anton Beljaars, Bernard Bourles, Arona
Diedhiou, Andreas Fink, Amadou Gaye, Jim Haywood,
Paul Houser, Peter Lamb, Thierry Lebel, Bob
Molinari, Doug Parker, Jan Polcher, Joe Prospero,
Claire Reeves, Madeline Thomson Co-Chairs
Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Chris Thorncroft ISSC
responsible for Formulation of well defined
scientific objectives and a coherent program, to
address the three overarching aims To coordinate
integrative work through the establishment of the
5 international WGs
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WG1 West African Monsoon and Global Climate
Co-leaders Arona Diedhiou (IRD, Niger), Serge
Janicot (LOCEAN, France) Peter Lamb (Univ.
Oklahoma, US)

• 2-way interactions between West African Monsoon
  the rest of the globe
• to determine the variability of the WAM and its
  global impacts
• to understand and to predict the multi-scale
  variability of the aspects of global
• climate linked to the WAM
• closely tied to aims of VACS
• Including
• Aerosol and chemistry activities
• Modelling activity

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WG1 West African Monsoon and Global Climate

• Dominant pattern of precipitation error
• associated with dominant pattern of SST
  prediction error based on persistent SST
  anomalies (Goddard Mason ,Climate Dynamics,
  2002)

Coupled model systematic error in equatorial SST
simulation note systematic error in east-west
gradient in the tropical Atlantic
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WG1 West African Monsoon and Global Climate
Main themes discussed and contributing to WG1 at
Dakar Conference included (a)
Synoptic-mesoscale phenomena (b) Climate change
uncertainties (c) Regional climate modeling
(d) Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols (e)
Ocean fluxes (f) Evaluation and improvement of
GCMs Details of these discussions are provided
in the Dakar Conference Proceedings (in
preparation).

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WG1 West African Monsoon and Global Climate
Evaluation and improvement of GCMs Presentations
were made on modeling concerns related to COPES,
VACS and GEWEX. The following specific AMMA
modeling initiatives were discussed AMMA-France
and AMMA-EU (Hourdin/Ruti) Promoting a
model intercomparison of rainfall at seasonal
and intraseasonal timescales including
relationship to regional circulations (e.g.
African easterly jet and Easterly waves) West
African Monsoon and Model Evaluation
(WAMME)program (Xue/Lau/Cook) A
CEOP-CIMS initiative coming out of the WCRP
monsoon modeling workshop. This is a parallel
model intercomparision initiative and focuses
on diurnal, intraseasonal and seasonal
timescales. An additional focus is on
aerosol-monsoon issues and the water cycle.
AMMA-International is working to ensure
coordination of these activities by creation of
an international modeling group.

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WG2 Water Cycle
Co-leaders Amadou Gaye (Univ. Dakar, Senegal),
Paul Houser (George Mason, US) , Jean-Luc
Redelsperger (CNRM, France)

Analysis Understanding of the water cycle at
regional-scale, mesoscale and local scaleWater
is at the heart of the Monsoon Dynamics but also
the Societal Impacts Downscaling issues for
impact studies
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WG3a Land-surface-atmosphere feedbacks
Co-leaders Jan Polcher (LMD, France) Chris
Taylor (CEH, UK)

To provide increased knowledge understanding of
the feedbacks between the continental surface
the atmosphere ? to bring together the various
process studies (land and atmosphere) in order
to better understand the coupling at regional and
mesoscale
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WG3a Land-surface-atmosphere feedbacks

Koster et al, 2004
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A multiscale approach
Global
10
km
4

Regional
10
3
km
Mesoscale
10
km
2
Local
10
1
km
Year
Season
Day
Hour
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WG3b Ocean-surface-atmosphere feedbacks
Co-leaders Bernard Bourles

To provide increased knowledge understanding of
the feedbacks between the ocean surface the
atmosphere ? to bring together the various
process studies (ocean and atmosphere) in order
to better understand the coupling at regional
scales
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WG4 Prediction of climate impacts
Co-leaders Abou Amani (AGHRYMET, Niger), Andy
Morse (Univ. Liverpool, UK), Madeleine Thompson
(IRI, US)

One of the 3 major aims of AMMA To provide the
underpinning science that relates climate
variability to issues of health, water resources,
food security demography for West African
nations and defining relevant monitoring and
prediction strategies.
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WG4 Prediction of climate impacts
Example Meningitis epidemics in Mali
Semaine de démarrage de lépidémie
January
Semaine du maximum du cycle saisonnier
(hiver) (Position du FIT la plus basse en
latitude)
Prediction ? Alert Systems
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WG5 High impact weather prediction and
predictability
CORE Membership E. Afiesimama (NIMET), S. Jones
(Un. Karlsuhe, Ger), D. Parsons (NCAR, US),
F.Rabier (Meteo-France),C. Thorncroft (SUNY, US),
Z. Toth (NCEP, US)

To improve our knowledge understanding of high
impact weather over Africa, including its impact
on the tropical Atlantic and Europe. Key
timescale of interest is 1-15 days
Can we predict dry/wet spells 15-days in
advance? Do such dry spells influence downstream
tropical cyclone activity?
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International Coordination Implementation Group
Co-chairs Thierry Lebel (IRD-Niger) Doug
Parker (Un Leeds UK) ICIG is responsible for
implementation of the AMMA field program
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EOP Maps
From the continental to the local scale
Niamey
AMMA
EGEE Cruises
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International Governing Board (IGB)
Co-Chairs Eric Brun (Meteo-France) and Alan
Thorpe (NERC) Membership G. Amanatidis (EU), J.
Boulegue (IRD) , W. Ferrel (DOE), A.
Guiteye(Director Operational Dept ASECNA), J.
Kaye (NASA), A.
Kignaman-Soro (ACMAD/D Representative PIREM),
J. Laver
(NOAA-NCEP), A. Ndiaye (WMO), N. Papineau (INSU
CNRS) To approve the structure and
implementation of AMMA particularly with respect
to the necessary financial and technical support.
To identify and mobilize national
international resources to support AMMA
activities. The first meeting took place on
December 20 via video-conference  
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International AMMA Webpages
International AMMA webpages have been developed
to aid communication http//www.amma-internati
onal.org Unique entrance to all AMMA
sites
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Role of VACS?

• AMMA to report to CLIVAR via VACS (AMMA is
  claimed by many other organisations)
• Sustainability of the observing system (ref G8
  initiatives) AMMA provides the scientific
  guidance for observational elements crucial to
  prediction
• What can VACS do to encourage conversion of
  observations to improving model skill?
• Capacity building