Pests Insects, Diseases

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Pests Insects, Diseases Weeds Present
Economic Costs (USA) 123 billion (Pimentel et
al. 1999) Alien weeds 35 billion Introduced
Insects 19 billion Plant Diseases 26
billion Animal Diseases 9 billion Human
pathogens 6.5 billion Not non-market
environmental or health costs 40 of endangered
or threatened species are at risk primarily from
foreign species.  
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Land Use Land Cover
Bio-geochemistry CO2
Globalisation, Trade Transport
Global Change IPM
Climate Change
Human Health
Climate Volatility
ICTBiotechnology
Alien species GMOs
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Vulnerability
Scales Regional, Industry/Ecosystem or Plot
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Bjorn Lomborgs linear view of climate change
Crowley 2000 Science
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Climate change can be very non-linear. Can you
pick the threshold or point of no return?
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CLIMATE FLIP FLOPS
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Regional climate changes of as much as 8oC to
16oC occurred repeatedly in as little as a decade
or less in the period 8ka and Younger Dryas
(Alley et al. 2003) What would that do to
todays world?
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Some reasons why managing pests under global
change is a non-trivial problem
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Climate Change is occurring already Just ask the
birds and the bees! Population and
life-history changes Shifts in geographical
ranges Changes in species composition in
communities Changes in the structure and
functioning of ecosystems. These
changes result from only a 0.6oC increase
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One Global Change Impacts Toolkit for Pests
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Rockhampton, Queensland Boophilus microplus
(Cattle tick)
0
200
Rainfall (mm)
400
400
Ticks / animal
600
200
0
Oct-72
Apr-73
Oct-73
Apr-74
Oct-74
Apr-75
Oct-75
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1973 was 1.6oC warmer than 1972
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Where is as important as When Underlying
population growth is higher, less variable and
more competitive in the core of the
distribution Less propagule pressure is needed
to establish in the core than at the
edge. Earliest effects of global warming on each
species will be seen at the edges of the
distributions
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Vulnerability of Australian Horticulture to Pests
under Climate Change
Queensland Fruit Fly
Light Brown Apple Moth
Total Cost 28.5m p.a.
Total Cost 21m
Current
Current
1.0C
2.0C
2.0C
1.0C
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Changes in Pest Damage (from CLIMEX Ecoclimatic
Index) (Amillions)
Queensland Fruit Fly
Light Brown Apple Moth
2oC
Industry
1oC
2oC
Industry
1oC
OrangesApplesPears
OrangesApplesPears Grapes
1.8 2.1 0.9
- 1.3 0.5 0.2 - 0.5
- 4.7 0.7 0.2 - 1.9
3.5 5.6 2.8
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Why we need to look at whole systems Malaria
risk in Australia
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Effect of timing of rainfall on species
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CO2Increased water use efficiency in plants
Impacts will include Extended plant growing
seasons Spread of woody plants into drier
areas Increased leaf area more shelter Changed
plant herbivore nutrition Changed plant-disease
relationships
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Increasing fecundity of anthracnose through
infection cycles on Stylosanthes
Fecundity (spores/lesion)
Ambient CO2 x
2-Ambient CO2
0 5 10 15
20 25 0 5 10
15 20 25 Infection cycle
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Chewing insects are less fit at 2 x CO2
Slower development Higher larval mortality
Reduced fecundity More compensatory feeding
Less efficient digestion
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Plant-sucking insects respond differently to x 2
CO2 (eg. aphids (Awmack)
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A. solani reproduction at high CO2
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Adaptation
We wont just stand and watch!
Resilience and Sustainability
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Steps to Sustainable Management (AtKisson
Believing Cassandra) Benchmark - baseline to
measure change Indicators monitoring to track
change Framework (strategy technology) to
guide adaptation Accelerate change (win community
support)
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• Genetic Adaptations
• Host-specific insects adapt genetically to track
  plant phenology
• Preserve genetic diversity within between
  species

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Chemical Control of Cattle Ticks under Higher
Temperatures
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Potential losses from cattle tick under business
as usual
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Potential losses from cattle tick with breed
changes
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DYMEX Modelling Networks
Bringing the power of modelling to users
DYMEX modular modelling of biological organisms.
Model with Groups Ownership
Collaborative Networks sharing Data Results
Are you Managing Pest, Weed and
Pathogen Problems?
Workshops
Enhanced Risk Assessment, Management
and Communication

• Groups Expectations
• Model Specifications
• Data Collation
• Model Formulation Testing
• Analysis of System
• Design of Management
• Strategies
• Future Plans

Identify Research Priorities
Group Training by Involvement
Email Bob.sutherst_at_csiro.au Web
http//www.ento.csiro.au/research/pestmgmt/dymex/d
ymexfr.htm
http//www.ento.csiro.au/research/pestm
gmt/climex/climex.htm
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Rat-Hopper model
1. Rice phenology and yield
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Realities of Pest R D
Multiple, interactive drivers of global
change Multiple clients in human natural
ecosystems Multiple species Responses depend on
where you are Responses often involve
thresholds Species do not respond in
isolation Whole-system impacts Pests
peripheral Less priority than todays
problems Scarcity of quantitative ecologists
Task greatly exceeds resources
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Global Change R D Needs
Data for Models to analyse pest problems to
design solutions Generic and hierarchical
tools Integrated risk assessments Spatial tools
for regional / industry assessments Socio-economic
models for policy
Global community needs Common tools and
languages Synergy from Collaboration and
Networking
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Key Messages for Pest Management

• Prevention (reduce propagule pressure) is most
  effective
• Plan for Resilience and Adaptability
• How?
• Knowledgebased, Adaptive Management
• Biological solutions are more resilient
• Sensitivity Analysis plus Scenarios

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One pest introduced by humans can cost 100 m or
ruin an ecosystem Humans spend millions on
responding to each pest, often unsuccessfully Suc
cessful pest control usually relies on insect /
pathogen solutions
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One time when humans got lucky
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Scientists do the Easy Things First! Technically
possible Avoid too scary or hard scenarios
Value of GCTE Interdisciplinary learning,
workshops Networks, data sharing culture
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CONCLUSIONS Humanity needs to change its
behavior Confident to Humble (Technology,
GCMs..) Product- to Knowledge-based
management Static to Nimble Adaptive
management Complacent to Afraid, Very
Afraid! Our Real Landlords will not be Benevolent
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