Understanding and Responding to Climate Change

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Understanding and Responding to Climate Change

• Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM
• Director, Climate Science Initiative
• Professor of Atmospheric Science
• Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
• Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
• Department of Agronomy
• Iowa State University
• Ames, Iowa 50011
• gstakle_at_iastate.edu

Iowa Bar Association Global Warming and the
International Perspective Potential Impacts on
Iowa Industry and Agriculture Des Moines, IA 16
December 2008
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Outline

• Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide
• Causes of climate change
• Changes in future climate around the globe
• Climate change for Iowa the US Midwest
• Insured risk for crops
• Climate change and global food production

Except where noted as personal views or from the
ISU Global Change course, all materials presented
herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports
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Carbon Dioxide, Methane, and Temperature Records
from Antarctic Ice Core Data
4
IPCC Third Assessment Report
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
384 ppm 2008
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2050 450 ppm
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Business as Usual 950 ppm (2100)
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Business as Usual 950 ppm (2100)
?
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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
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http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006
/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
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Source IPCC, 2001 Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
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Source IPCC, 2001 Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
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Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by
Global Climate Models
2005
Aug 2008
2007
Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007 Global Climate
Projections. In Climate Change 2007 The
Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M.
Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller
(eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter
10, p. 771
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Tropical Atlantic Ocean
Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
Sea-surface temperature
V
V
V
Emanual, Kerry, 2005 Increasing destructiveness
of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years.
Nature, 436, 686-688.
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http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006
/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Not Natural
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http//www.pmodwrc.ch/pmod.php?topictsi/composite
/SolarConstant
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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Highly Likely Not Natural
Not Natural
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Source Jerry Meehl, National Center for
Atmospheric Research
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Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
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Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is committed to a warming over the
next 50 years regardless of political decisions
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
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Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
Mitigation Possible
Adaptation Necessary
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
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Projected changes in precipitation between
1980-1999 and 2080-2099 for an energy-conserving
scenario of greenhouse gas emissions
IPCC 2007
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Des Moines Airport Data
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Des Moines Airport Data
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Observed Summer (JJA) Daily Maximum Temperature
Changes (K), 1976-2000
Adapted from Folland et al. 2001
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Warming Hole Simulations of changes in daily
maximum summertime temperatures between 1990s and
2040s
DTmax (JJA)
C
Pan, Z., R. W. Arritt, E. S. Takle, W. J.
Gutowski, Jr., C. J. Anderson, and M. Segal,2004
Altered hydrologic feedback in a warming climate
introduces a warming hole. Geophys. Res.
Lett.31, L17109, doi10.1029/2004GL020528.
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Des Moines Airport Data
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Des Moines Airport Data
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Des Moines Airport Data
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D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
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D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
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One of the clearest trends in the United States
observational record is an increasing frequency
and intensity of heavy precipitation events Over
the last century there was a 50 increase in the
frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6
mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.
this trend is statistically significant
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Projected Changes for the Climate of the
Midwest Temperature

• Longer frost-free period (high)
• Higher average winter temperatures (high)
• Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
• Fewer extreme high temperatures in summer in
  short term but more in long term (medium)
• Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and
  winter (high)
• More freeze-thaw cycles (high)
• Increased temperature variability (high)

Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by
models No current trend but model suggestion or
current trend but model inconclusive
Estimated from IPCC reports
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Projected Changes for the Climate of the
Midwest Precipitation

• More (10) precipitation annually (medium)
• Change in seasonality Most of the increase
  will come in the first half of the year (wetter
  springs, drier summers) (high)
• More water-logging of soils (medium)
• More variability of summer precipitation (high)
• More intense rain events and hence more runoff
  (high)
• Higher episodic streamflow (medium)
• Longer periods without rain (medium)
• Higher absolute humidity (high)
• Stronger storm systems (medium)
• More winter soil moisture recharge (medium)
• Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term
  but decreases in the
  long run (medium)

Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by
models No current trend but model suggestion or
current trend but model inconclusive
Estimated from IPCC reports
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http//www.wrcc.dri.edu/pcpn/us_precip.gif.
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Projected Changes for the Climate of the
Midwest Other

• Reduced wind speeds (high)
• Reduced solar radiation (medium)
• Increased tropospheric ozone (high)
• Accelerated loss of soil carbon (high)
• Phenological stages are shortened (high)
• Weeds grow more rapidly under elevated
  atmospheric CO2 (high)
• Weeds migrate northward and are less sensitive to
  herbicides (high)
• Plants have increased water used efficiency (high)

Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by
models No current trend but model suggestion or
current trend but model inconclusive
Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports
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Cedar Rapids Data
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Cedar Rapids Data
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Cedar Rapids Data
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Cedar Rapids Data
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Relationship of Streamflow to Precipitation in
Current and Future Climates
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Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture
IPCC 2007
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Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture
IPCC 2007
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Projected changes in precipitation between
1980-1999 and 2080-2099 for an energy-conserving
scenario of greenhouse gas emissions
IPCC 2007
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Insured Crop Loss for Corn in Iowa
  Factor Percent Cold Winter 0.9 Decline
in Price 6.6 Drought 35.5 Excess
Moist/Precip/Rain 38.4 Flood
2.6 Freeze 0.1 Hail
7.2 Heat 1.2 Hot Wind
0.0 Mycotoxin (Aflatoxin) 1.0 Plant
Disease 0.3 Winds/Excess Wind
5.0 Other 1.1 Total 100.0
Milliman, Inc., based on 1995-2006 data from the
Risk Management Agency Website
(http//www.rma.usda.gov/)
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Insured Crop Loss for Soybeans in Iowa
Factor Percent Cold Winter 0.6 Decline
in Price 4.8 Drought 56.8 Excess
Moist/Precip/Rain 20.2 Flood
1.4 Freeze 0.1 Hail 13.0 Heat
0.9 Hot Wind 0.0 Mycotoxin
(Aflatoxin) 0.0 Plant Disease
1.1 Winds/Excess Wind 0.2 Other
1.1 Total 100.0
Milliman, Inc., based on 1995-2006 data from the
Risk Management Agency Website
(http//www.rma.usda.gov/)
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US Corn Yields (Bushels/Acre)
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Summary

• Global temperature change of the last 30 years
  cannot be explained on the basis of natural
  causes alone. Only when anthropogenic effects are
  considered can we explain recent temperature
  trends
• Mitigation efforts, although urgently needed,
  will have little effect on global warming until
  the latter half of the 21st century
• Some climate changes in the Midwest likely are
  related to global factors, and adaptation
  strategies should be developed
• Global food production likely will be more
  variable in the future, with some current food
  producing regions becoming unsuitable for
  agriculture

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For More Information

• Contact me directly
• gstakle_at_iastate.edu
• Current research on regional climate and climate
  change is being conducted at Iowa State Unversity
  under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory
• http//rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/
• North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
  Program
• http//www.narccap.ucar.edu/
• For this and other climate change presentations
  see my personal website http//www.meteor.i
  astate.edu/faculty/takle/
• For current activities on the ISU campus,
  regionally and nationally relating to climate
  change see the Climate Science Initiative
  website
• http//climate.agron.iastate.edu/

Or just Google Eugene Takle