The Quest for Viable Peace:

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The Quest for Viable Peace

• Strategies for achieving stability after
  intervening
• in a bad neighborhood

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A Strategy for Viable Peace

• END Viable Peace
• WAYS Transform the sources of conflict
• MEANS Gaps must be filled

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End Viable Peace
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Viable Peace and Stabilization

• The first stage of stabilization
• The point where international costs can be
  sustained
• International safeguards are vital to prevent
  backsliding (as opposed to exit strategies)
• Conflict transformation must precede mission
  transition
• Until peace is viable, the peace process must
  take primacy
• How?

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Way Conflict Transformation

• Properly assess entrenched sources of conflict
  (motives and means)
• What kind of peace is this?
• Must violent obstructionists be defeated?
• Is there rule of law or lawless rule?
• Does illicit revenue from the underground economy
  provide means and motivations for conflict?
• Conflict Transformation vs. Post-Conflict
  Reconstruction
• Support those who support the peace process and
  oppose those whop oppose it

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Conflict TransformationPolitical Regime

• FROM intolerant zero-sum confrontations where
  incentives and payoffs for continued violence
  persist
• TO a system of governance where competition for
  power can be conducted through nonviolent
  processes.

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Conflict TransformationSecurity Environment

• FROM a context dominated by armed groups that are
  willing and able to use violence to maintain
  power
• TO a context where armed groups are either
  subordinated to legitimate governmental
  authority, reintegrated into society, or
  defeated.

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Conflict TransformationRule of Law Institutions

• FROM instruments of state repression where
  political and criminal elites enjoy impunity
• TO institutions that serve the public by
  preserving order, protecting minority rights, and
  applying the law equitably.

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Conflict TransformationPolitical Economy

• FROM a context where gray and black markets
  dominate and illicit wealth determines who
  governs
• TO a functioning formal economy where the
  integrity of revenues required for essential
  state functions is protected.

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Moderating Political Conflict
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Strategic Lines of Action

• Key concept Redefining political aims
• Reduce motives for conflict
• - Nurture favorable conditions for political
  dialogue
• - Mediate conflict incrementally
• - Contain violent obstructionism
• Build capacity for conflict resolution
• - Build a working coalition to run a civil
  administration
• - Channel the competition for power into
  nonviolent processes

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Defeating Political Violence
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Strategic Lines of Action

• Key Concept Combine counterinsurgency tactics
  with peacekeeping principles
• Reduce means for political violence
• - Find Patrolling, intelligence, cooperation
  with police
• - Fix Constrain freedom of extremists to act
  by operating among the people civic action
  protect own centers of gravity
• - Strike To disrupt or dismantle extremist
  networks at direction of custodian of peace
  process
• Capacity of Security Sector
• - Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration
• - Reform of local armed groups and mentoring of
  army and intelligence apparatus into
  contributors to peace

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Institutionalizing Rule of Law
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Strategic Lines of Action

• Key Concept Confront threats to the rule of law
• Shape the context by addressing impunity
• - Intelligence to Incarceration Continuum
• - Deal with sources not just symptoms of
  disorder
• Develop institutional capacity
• - Holistic approach
• Establish safeguards on performance
• - Transparency and accountability

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Legitimize the Political Economy
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Strategic Lines of Action

• Key Concept Dislodge criminal power structures
• ? Undercut the economic foundations of
  obstructionist power
• ? Strengthen the coalition for peace by ensuring
  that peace pays (fill the missing middle)
• ? Develop a fiscally autonomous and sustainable
  state
• Lay the macroeconomic foundation to expand the
  formal economy and distribute the benefits of
  peace

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Means Filling the Gaps

• Assessment of informal power structures,
  subversive threats, and shadow economies
• Public Security Gap
• Lack of trained civilian personnel
• Slow dispersal of funds
• Limits on authority/mandates

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Conclusion

• End Make peace viable
• (not nation building or exit strategies)
• Way Transform conflict
• (not post-conflict reconstruction)
• Means Are inadequate
• (Denial and neglect are not a strategy)