Florida CD 21 general election voter opinion poll

1
Florida CD 21general election voter opinion poll

• June 19-22, 2008

2
FL CD 21 general election poll

• Sample of 405 respondents taken from a population
  of likely voters (based on past turnout in
  congressional and presidential elections)
• Interviews conducted June 19th - 22nd, 2008
• Weighted of cases matches voter file
• Miami-Dade County 328 cases 81
• Broward County 77 cases 19
• Republicans 169 cases 42
• Democrats 156 cases 38
• Independent, other party 81 cases 20
• Sampling error for whole sample results 4.9

3
Key findings

• Lincoln Diaz-Balart holds a solid 12-point
  advantage over his opponent48 for Republican
  Diaz-Balart versus 36 for Democrat Raul
  Martinezin a ballot asked early in the poll,
  before any potentially biasing and leading
  questions were asked.
• Out of the starting gate, Diaz-Balart maintains a
  consistent and broad-based advantage, out-polling
  Martinez by double-digit margins in almost every
  segment of the electorate.
• Diaz-Balarts advantage over the challenger more
  than doubled to 27 percentage points on a second
  ballot asked late in the poll54 for Diaz-Balart
  to 27 for Raul Martinezafter voters had heard
  pro and con arguments for each candidate.
• Reponses to several questions suggested the
  importance that voters attach to honesty and
  ethical behavior and reveal that Martinez
  explosive temperament and brushes with corruption
  are far more worrisome to voters than any
  Diaz-Balart deficiencies.
• Both candidates are already so well known (at
  least 7 in 10 likely voters say they know each
  candidate well enough to have formed either a
  favorable or unfavorable impression of them),
  that it will be extremely difficult and costly
  for either campaign to significantly shift the
  electorate toward or away from either candidate.
  What you see on the ballot today is likely to be
  close to what you will get on Election Day.

4
Impression of candidates
5
Candidate traits

• Electorate craves honesty ethics more than
  change

6
Ballot tests dynamics

• Verbatim comments make cleareven for many
  Diaz-Balart critics, Martinez is not an
  acceptable replacement

7
First ballot test by sex age
8
Second ballot test by sex age
9
First ballot testby education and ethnicity
10
Second ballot test by education and ethnicity