FROM STRATEGIC PLANNING TO REAL TIME OPTIMISATION

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FROM STRATEGIC PLANNING TO REAL TIME OPTIMISATION

• Technical, EcOnomical and OpeRational Assessment
  of an ATM Concept AcHievable from the year 2005

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ATFM delay - structural problems
Source Performance Review Commission PRR2,
November 1999
Forward looking planninginsufficient
ATC capacity and demandimbalance
Airspace configurationineffective(few main
bottlenecks, weekends)
Staff-rostering for ATC sectorsinappropriate(col
lapsed sectors, weekends)
ATFM Delay
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What is a DOP ?
DOP Daily Operational Plan

• Planning process on ECAC level among all involved
  stakeholders
• Related to a specific Day of Operations
• Look ahead planning function
• Original Source EATMS OCD

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DOP Objectives

• Enables layered planning process
• Early balance of demand and capacity
• Finished at least 1 day prior Operations
• More accurate planning and balancing
• Better exploitation of available capacity
• Close gap between planning phase and operational
  phase
• Involvement of all Airspace User in DOP
  development
• Transparent decision making
• Synchronisation of data

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Principle Idea of DOP
Complexity has to be shifted into
non-time-critical planning phase
Planning Phase
Operational Phase
Ad-hoc Co-ordination Same data ??
Few co-ordination processes
Status Quo

TORCH
via DOP
via local tools
Improved co-ordination between all stakeholders
Reduced Ad-hoc decisions Synchronised data
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Layered Planning Process
Tactical Flow Capacity Management
Local Traffic Management
Strategic Flow Capacity Management
Central Planning Agency
Multi-Centre
Centre
Multi-Sector
Sector
DOP Development
Real Time Operational Plan Optimisation Tools
- En-route Traffic Analyser -
Traffic Load Analyser Planning horizon up to 2
hrs
Central Re-Planning
Local User Optimisation
En-Route Metering
En-route Planning Tools - Traffic Load
Analyser - Workload Monitor Planning
horizon up to 2 hrs - MTCD
- What-if- probing - Conflict
Resolution Adviser Planning horizon up to 30 min
Multi-Sector Planning
Executive Control
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DOP Process Model Structure
Problem Validation of DOP through simulation -gt
no tools known SolutionFeasibility study with
BONAPRT Process Model
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DOP Process Model Results

• Process Model reveals required processes,
  interfaces and data
• confirmed by Interviews with different
  stakeholders
• Existing stakeholder tools and processes have to
  be integrated and can be integrated
• Synchronisation necessary
• Including CFMU and planned upgrades
• Further improvements required in terms of
• Interfaces between tools
• Data synchronisation

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Technical feasibility

• Traffic demand prediction system fusing data from
  many sources
• considered feasible for operations from about
  2006/2007
• Central planning of DOP (routes and associated
  times)
• first operations considered feasible about 2008
  (warm-up period),
• fully operational about 2009.

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DOP Assessment Interviews
DOP Information Flow
What do we have ?
What do we need ?
x
x
Interviews
DOP Process Model TORCH Concept
current status
Assessment
principle need
of DOP Feasibility
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Interview Partners
Stakeholder
Organisation
Qualification / Position
Flight Operations Head Capacity Planing Net
Planing Schedule Optimisation Operative Airway
Planing
IberiaLufthansa
Aircraft Operator
Head Operational Division Head Airport Development
Madrid BarajasFrankfurt FAG
Airport
ATS Provider
AENADFSGerman Military ATS
Head ATM Concept Requirements Long Term Capacity
Planing Air Traffic Controller
Others
Aviation Business
Weather Service
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Summary of Interview Results

• There are no principle objections against a DOP
  concept.
• Data are provided as long as they are not passed
  to third parties.
• Many DOP relevant data are already available
• with sufficient accuracy
• previous of Ops Day.
• WX influence may limit the power of a DOP
  concept.
• 1 day prior ops is crucial time for a DOP
  development
• The idea of combining Airport and Airspace
  capacity with AOs demand during the IATA SCC
  possibly meets opposition from AOs
• Proposal DOP Fast Time Simulations after IATA SCC

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DRAFT
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Scenarios Description
Arrivals Air Delay Decrease vs. Daily Operations
Arrival Management arrival optimisation Distrib
ution of TMA-entry times due to better en route
planning to show how arriving waiting times is
affected. Sequencing (optimal landing sequence)
and metering (minimum spacing) between
successive arrivals These changes are expected
to optimise arrival delays at Madrid by 15 in
saturated situations.
minutes
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Scenarios Description

• Departure Management plus Integrated Arrivals
  and Departure Management.
• Better co-ordination between ATC, airport and
  Airline Operators will allow arrival and
  departure sequence optimisation.
• Better co-ordination between ATC and Apron
  Control should reduce waiting times on the
  ground.
• These changes are expected to optimise taxiway
  and departure sequence, reducing delays and ATC
  Interventions at Madrid by 10.

Total ground Delay Decrease vs. Daily Operations
minutes
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General Conclusions

• Principle feasibility is shown by Process Model
  and interview results
• Improved look ahead planning of demand and
  capacity is possible
• relevant data with sufficient accuracy are
  available
• Better exploitation of capacity is key enabler to
  overcome current ATFM structural problems
• Principle collaborative decision making
  applications identified and described in the
  model
• Use of stakeholder tools and data required
• Need of defining new functions, processes and
  interfaces
• Consideration for CFMU Development Plan

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Open questions to the Forum
CITY, DD/MM/YY

• How to quantify benefits of better planning?
• Area of applicability?
• Implementation schedule?
• Contradictory or complementary to CFMU
  development?

This document is the property of TORCH 2005 and
may not be copied or communicated without written
consent
TORCH WPX
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