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Pitchbook

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Political risk - more noise than reality. Need to build better new business capabilities ... summary of our research, news items, valuation update ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Pitchbook


1
A publication of WACHOVIA CAPITAL MARKETS, LLC 7
Saint Paul Street ? 5th Floor ? Baltimore, MD
21202
OutsourceWorld Conference 2006 Wednesday, October
18, 2006
An Analysts View of IT/BPO Services Presentati
on by Ed Caso Senior IT/BPO Services Analyst
Source Microsoft Office
Edward S. Caso, Jr., CFA Managing Director (443)
263-6524 edward.caso_at_wachovia.com Eric J.
Boyer Associate Analyst (443) 263-6559 eric.boyer_at_
wachovia.com Dhruv Maniktala, CFA Associate
Analyst (410) 625-6381 dhruv.maniktala_at_wachovia.co
m
All relevant disclosures and certifications
appear on page 10 of this report Wachovia Capital
Markets, LLC does and seeks to do business with
companies covered in its research reports.  As a
result, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect
the objectivity of the report and investors
should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision.
2
Ed Caso - Bio
  • Edward S. Caso, Jr.
  • Managing Director and Senior IT Services Analyst
  • Wachovia
  • Equity Research 20 years (last 12 years focused
    on IT/BPO Services)
  • Wachovia
  • Alex. Brown
  • Goldman Sachs
  • Current Coverage
  • Commercial Consulting/ Integration Accenture,
    BearingPoint, CIBER, Diamond
  • Outsourcing Computer Sciences, Hewitt
    Associates, Perot Systems, Unisys
  • Offshore Cognizant, Keane, Sapient
  • Government Services CACI, DynCorp, ManTech, SI
    Intl, SRA Intl
  • Bucknell University - BA (Mathematics/ Economics)
  • Cornell University - MBA (Finance/ Accounting)
  • Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA)

3
INVESTMENTS What We Look For
  • Market Positioning (are you yesterdays model?)
  • Growth opportunity within existing client base
  • New business capabilities (have or making BP
    investment)
  • Consistent long-term (annual) organic growth
  • Opportunity for operating margin expansion
  • Positive cash flow and a solid balance sheet
  • Shareholder friendly
  • But most importantly, a strong management team

4
Daily Indexed Price Performance
(October 3, 2003 October 4, 2006)
Source FactSet
5
Systems Integration/ Application Dev.
Maintenance
ISSUES/ CONCERNS
POSITIVES
  • Sensitive to overall investment spending
  • Beneficiary of systems consolidation driven by
    efficiency focus or MA
  • Beneficiary move to Internet- and wireless based
    solutions
  • Ongoing testing improves quickly
  • 1998 was last big mission critical upgrade
  • Uptick in SAP and Oracle integration work
  • Utilization stable with signs of upward bias
  • Uneven pace of Economic recovery
  • Off-shore keeps pressure on pricing
  • G2000 mindset keeps pressure on pricing
  • Lack of big theme (e.g. Y2k, Dot.coms)
  • Signs of voluntary turnover rising

6
Outsourcing IT Services Market
ISSUES/ CONCERNS
POSITIVES
  • Common acceptance of outsourcing
  • Multi-year contracts offer revenue visibility
  • Door opener for incremental work
  • Beneficiary of reduced telecom costs allowing for
    increased distributed processing
  • Helps facilitate change (internal politics)
  • Several flavors with varying margins
  • ITO (infrastructure, lowest margin)
  • ADMO (software, good margin)
  • BPO (people based - okay margin)
  • BPO (volume based - very good margin)
  • Intermediaries (e.g. TPI, Everest) have put
    meaningful pressure on pricing
  • Deal sizes getting smaller- dollar and length
  • Growing need for global solution capabilities
  • Contract flexibility is difficult without
    severe margin risk - contentious relationships
  • Most contracts are re-negotiated
  • Capital intensive, although becoming less so
  • Offshore providers moving into traditional ITO
    and BPO services

7
Offshore IT Services Market
ISSUES/ CONCERNS
POSITIVES
  • Clients now assume offshore component
  • Price advantage (fully loaded) remains large
  • Demand is very strong
  • Master Services Agreements offer better growth
    and economics than large outsourcing deals
  • Expanding breadth of service offerings
  • Emerging European opportunity
  • Tier I established - TCS, INFY, WIT, CTSH, ACN,
    IBM
  • Strong, established brands, perceived quality
  • Pricing premium
  • Ability to recruit / train on scale basis
  • Employee turnover rising
  • Wages rising for experienced professionals and
    now freshers
  • Need strong recruiting/training processes
  • Rising CAPX requirements, especially for Tier
    II providers
  • Political risk - more noise than reality
  • Need to build better new business capabilities
  • China Eastern Europe, still a ways off

8
Key Conclusions
  • Commercial-focused providers need to adapt to a
    global delivery model
  • Latecomers will need to acquire offshore factory,
    or become front-end for an established offshore
    player that needs clients or vertical knowledge
  • Mega outsourcing rarely worksbite sized deals
    are optimalopens opportunity for new vertical
    focused BPO providers
  • Consolidation is natural next step as markets
    mature
  • Acquisitions should be for new offerings/
    clients, never for just people
  • Public consolidators need to do deals that are
    year one accretive
  • Be big, or be nicheand niches get only so big,
    so have an exit strategy
  • Remember, it is always about management

9
Wachovia IT/BPO Equity Research Products
  • Weekly (email) newsletter
  • 10 years and going strong
  • over 2,500 now get it
  • summary of our research, news items,
    valuation update
  • Quarterly statistical reports (consultants
    govt space)
  • everything that is public info
  • financial statement analysis plus additional
    metrics
  • Theme reports Field trip summaries
  • Individual company reports
  • Send email to edward.caso_at_wachovia.com to get on
    our weekly list.

10
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