Great Lakes Climate Change Hydrologic Impact Assessment

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Great Lakes Climate Change Hydrologic Impact
Assessment IJC Lake OntarioSt. Lawrence River
Regulation Study Thomas E. Croley II Great Lakes
Environmental Research Laboratory, NOAA 2205
Commonwealth Blvd. Ann Arbor, Michigan
48105-2945 Fox-Wolf Watershed
Alliance Stormwater Conference 2007 and University
of Wisconsin Sea Grant Institute Wisconsin
Coastal Management Program National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration March 1314,
2007 Green Bay, Wisconsin
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Climate Data
Climate Changes Base Case Scenario
(Historical) Extract Differences for Each
Month of Year Extract Ratios for Each Month
of Year Apply Ratios Differences to Base
Case
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Modeling Procedure Arbitrary Initial
Conditions Estimate Steady-State
Conditions repeat 52-yr simulation
Simulate for All Scenarios (Including Base Case)
121 watersheds and 7 lakes Interpret
Differences As Hydrology Impacts
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Climate Scenarios (Average Air Temperature,
015C)
Base Case
Canadian GCM 2, warm dry
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Climate Scenarios (Average Air Temperature,
015C)
Cool Dry
Base Case
Warm Dry
Cool Wet
Warm Wet
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Climate Scenarios (Average Annual Precipitation,
0.71.4 m)
Cool Dry
Base Case
Warm Dry
Cool Wet
Warm Wet
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Climate Scenarios (Michigan Seasonal Meteorology)
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Basin Response (Average Snow Water Moisture, 09
cm)
Cool Dry
Base Case
Warm Dry
Cool Wet
Warm Wet
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Basin Response (Average Soil Moisture, 01.7 m)
Cool Dry
Base Case
Warm Dry
Cool Wet
Warm Wet
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Basin Response (Michigan Seasonal Storages)
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Basin Response (Average Ann. Evapotranspiration,
0.10.9 m)
Cool Dry
Base Case
Warm Dry
Cool Wet
Warm Wet
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Basin Response (Average Annual Runoff, 0.10.8 m)
Cool Dry
Base Case
Warm Dry
Cool Wet
Warm Wet
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Basin Response (Michigan Seasonal Flows)
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Climate Scenarios (Average Cloud Cover, 5070)
Cool Dry
Base Case
Warm Dry
Cool Wet
Warm Wet
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Climate Scenarios (Average Wind Speed, 57 m/s)
Cool Dry
Base Case
Warm Dry
Cool Wet
Warm Wet
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Lake Response (Michigan Seasonal Meteorology)
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Climate Scenarios (Average Air Temperature,
314C)
Cool Dry
Base Case
Warm Dry
Cool Wet
Warm Wet
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Climate Scenarios (Average Absolute Humidity,
714 mb)
Cool Dry
Base Case
Warm Dry
Cool Wet
Warm Wet
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Climate Scenarios (Michigan Seasonal Meteorology)
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Lake Response (Michigan Seasonal Heat Storages)
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Lake Response (Average Surface Temperature,
515C)
Cool Dry
Base Case
Warm Dry
Cool Wet
Warm Wet
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Lake Response (Average Annual Evaporation,
0.51.2 m)
Cool Dry
Base Case
Warm Dry
Cool Wet
Warm Wet
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Lake Response (Michigan Seasonal Thermodynamics)
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Lake Response (Average Annual Evaporation,
0.51.2 m)
Cool Dry
Base Case
Warm Dry
Cool Wet
Warm Wet
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Lake Response (Average Annual Precipitation,
0.71.1 m)
Cool Dry
Base Case
Warm Dry
Cool Wet
Warm Wet
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Climate Scenarios (Average Annual Runoff, 0.31.9
m)
Cool Dry
Base Case
Warm Dry
Cool Wet
Warm Wet
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Climate Scenarios (Average Annual NBS, 0.32.1 m)
Cool Dry
Base Case
Warm Dry
Cool Wet
Warm Wet
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Lake Response (Michigan Seasonal Net Basin
Supplies)
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Summary
Higher Air Temperatures Higher
Evapotranspiration and Lower Runoff Earlier
Runoff Peaks Reduced Soil Moisture Higher
Water Temperatures More Heat In Deep Lakes
Diminished Mixing Reduced Ice Formation
Increased Lake Evaporation Net Supplies Drop
For Northern and Mid-Latitude Lakes, All
Climates For Southern Lakes, Except Cool
Wet Scenario