From Here to Eternity

1
From Here to Eternity

• A Love Story or a Slasher Flick You Decide!
• Dr. Watson Scott Swail
• Educational Policy Institute
• Virginia Beach ? Toronto ? Melbourne

2
(No Transcript)
3
(No Transcript)
4
(No Transcript)
5
Todays Conversation

• Projecting Tuition and Fee Charges
• Ability of Student Aid to Keep Up
• Impact of Demographic Shifts
• Impact of the Global Economy
• Dialogue and Conclusions

6
Tuition and Fee Charges
7
Tuition and Fee Charges
8
Tuition Doubling
9
By 2030-31, Tuition will be

• 13,773 at a 4-year public
• 4,764 at a 2-year public
• 47,275 at a 4-year private

10
Can Student Aid Keep Up?

• In 2004-05, over 142 billion in aid was
  distributed to students from federal, state,
  institutional, and private sources (College
  Board, 2005)
• To project future aid we kept proportions
  constant and increased aid each year by 3.5
  percent ABOVE inflation (to approximately match
  that of the three institutional sectors).

11
In 2030-31

• Total aid would need to exceed 349 billion
• Pell Grants would need to rise to 32 billion
• Sub and Unsub loans to 129 billion
• Basically, everything goes up by a factor of 1.45

12
Can Student Aid Keep Up?
13
Can Student Aid Keep Up?

• Total aid increased 120 percent beyond inflation
  between 1994-95 and 2004-05
• Non-loan aid (approx) increased 151 percent
  during same decade
• Recent history shows that governments can keep
  pace but the likelihood of them doing so
  indefinitely is unlikely.

14
Can Student Aid Keep Up?

• In 2003-04, 63 percent of undergraduates received
  some type of financial aid, averaging 7,300. In
  2030, this would need to be 18,400 in todays
  dollars.
• 51 percent of undergrads received a grant
  averaging 4,000 in 2003-04 this translates to
  10,126 in todays dollars for 2030 35 percent
  took out a loan averaging 5,800, translating to
  14,683.
• If the average student, attending the average
  institution, takes out 15,000/year in loans,
  their education would, on average, require a debt
  load of at least 60,000 in todays dollars.
  AVERAGE!

15
Impact of Demographic Shifts

• While the potential pool of high school graduates
  and college students will increase substantially,
  the only thing that will be traditional about
  this growing cohort will be its age. The nations
  college-age population will be even more
  ethnically diverse than the general population
  because of differential birthrates and migration
  patterns. Furthermore, the most rapid growth will
  occur among groups traditionally more likely to
  drop out of school, less likely to enroll in
  college preparatory course work, less likely to
  graduate from high school, less likely to enroll
  in college, and least likely to persist to earn a
  baccalaureate degree.

16
Impact of the Global Economy
17
Impact of the Global Economy
18
Impact of the Global Economy
19
Dialogue and Conclusions

• Curbing college costs
• Improving efficiency
• Improving academic preparation
• Improving appropriate use of funds
• Is it about more money for PSE?

20
www.educationalpolicy.org