Country Presentation on the MDGs Process

1
Country Presentation on the MDGs Process

• Ethiopian Team
• March 3,2006
• Dar es Salaam

2
Important Milestones Timelines

• Ethiopias MDGs Investment Plan Issued in
  December 2005
• The MDGs-Based Five Year Plan(2005/06-2009/10)
  (PASDEP) has been already endorsed by the
  Cabinet in broad terms and is being refined and
  augmented based on inputs from Stakeholders
  including Government bodies
• Once refined the PASDEP will be approved by the
  Parliament before Mid April 2006
• Forward Looking ME Action Plan(2004/05-2008/09)
  Jointly Developed by the WMU of MOFED and CSA
  through consultation with Stakeholders through
  support from the DAG

3
Costing the MDGsA The MDGs Period(2005/06-2014/1
5)

• In the Ethiopian case, MDGs Needs Assessment
  completed
• Investment Plan formulated and issued (The MDGs
  Needs Assessment Synthesis Study Report)
• The total Cost Requirement projected at US 100
  Billion during the coming ten years
• Of which the public component including ODA
  (which goes through the budget) is estimated at
  US 76 Billion for the coming ten years
• The Residual is estimated to be financed outside
  of the public domain (Households, Private
  Business, NGOs/CSOs, grass root community
  mobilization)

4
----CostingB The PASDEP

• The PASDEP Program costs are MDGs-based as
  submitted by sect oral ministries in their
  respective five-year sect oral plans extracted
  from the respective sect oral needs assessment
  reports
• The aggregate total cost requirement as submitted
  from sect oral line ministries for pro-poor
  sectors for the coming five years stood at 342
  Billion ETB(US40 Billion) at the current
  Exchange rate(US18.67 ETB)
• This total pro-poor sect oral cost requirements
  have been aligned to the MEFF by taking in to
  consideration budgetary and non-budgetary costs,
  those to be covered outside of the public
  domain(HHs, NGOs/CSOs, public companies,
  Communities)
• This brings down total pro-poor cost
  requirements for the five year period from 342
  Billion ETB(US40 Billion) to 183 Billion ETB(US
  21Billion)
• In other words from US 8 Billion per annum down
  to US 4.2 Billion per annum

5
PASDEP Total Pro-Poor Sectoral Cost Requirements
(Million ETB)
Items 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Total
Education 8236 9372 11612 12621 11902 53743
Health 5925 7528 9405 11359 13404 47620
HIV/AIDS 4975 7585 10453 13138 17230 53381
Water Sanitation 3816 4175 4016 1769 1815 15590
Agriculture RD 6243 6426 4089 4412 4586 25755
Roads 4656 7427 7913 9028 8161 37184
PSD 2737 2737 3293 3293 3293 15352
Telecom 3481 3386 2512 1931 1585 12895
Power 12292 9245 6553 4460 1856 34406
Gender Devt 161 130 120 112 118 612
Population Devt 99 666 193 240 115 1313
Irrigation Devt 2396 4200 2647 2323 1608 13173
Urban Devt 4850 4850 4850 5834 9334 30703
Total 59866 67725 68641 70519 75006 341756
6
Financing the PASDEPAligning to the MEFF (The
Base Case Scenario)(Million ETB)
Items 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Total
Domestic Revenue 22465 23731 26266 30278 34637 137378
External Budget Grants 7221 6919 7839 7911 8587 38477
Total Revenue and Grants 29686 30550 34105 38189 43224 175855
Total Expenditure 36169 45783 49529 51858 56681 240020
O/w Poverty-oriented 25905 35390 38020 38573 45228 183116
Overall Balance Including Grants -6483 -15134 -15423 -13759 -13577 -64376
External (Net) 2083 2371 2633 3088 3532 13707
Domestic (Net) 4399 4653 5386 6095 6979 27512
Gap Financed 6483 7024 8019 9183 10511 41220
Gap to be Financed 0 8110 7404 4576 3066 23156
7
Major Challenges

• Availability of Financing (predictability, the
  need for multi-year disbursement plan,
  harmonization of procedures using existing
  government systems,etc)
• Further Strengthen Sectoral Monitoring systems
  (including their regional states counter parts)
• Improve coordination between state and non-state
  actors to Enhance information exchange and the
  complimentary roles the various sources of
  information

8
Expectations of Support from UNCT /MP

• Capacity Building (Training) to further improve
  analytical framework (Modeling and simulation
  works) at the level of the central coordinating
  institution (MOFED)
• Immediate support to refine costing for some of
  the sectors with relatively week ME systems(
  Agriculture and Rural Development, Urban
  Development, Power, Telecom, Irrigation)

9
Thank You