Climate Change and the Impacts in Maryland

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Climate Change and the Impacts in Maryland?

• Jim Yienger
• Director, Policy Institute
• ICLEI- Local Governments for Sustainability
• October 18, 2006

Adapted from a Presentation by William Morrow
(IPCC)
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The Earths Climate System

• Light from the Sun is absorbed by land and water,
  and is converted to heat.
• Some heat is emitted back into space as radiant
  heat, just as heat is radiated from hot pavement
  on a July day.
• Some of this radiant heat is absorbed by water
  vapor and clouds, carbon dioxide, methane,
  nitrous oxide and other trace atmospheric gases.
• These gases act like the glass windows in a car
  creating the hot car effect.

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Vostok temperature and CO2
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Natural forces affect the climate system

• Fluctuations in the suns intensity
• Gradual changes in earths orbit
• Volcanic eruptions
• Changes in ocean currents
• Shorter-term cycles like El Nino

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What is new is that human activities are altering
the composition of the atmosphere, the face of
the land, and the climate system.
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Hot Car Effect and Climate Change
Natural
Enhanced
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What human activities are affecting climate?

• Carbon dioxide from fossil fuels
• Methane from agriculture, livestock, landfills,
  fossil fuel production.
• Nitrous oxide from agriculture and industry
• Deforestation releases carbon
• Refrigerants, like the CFC replacement HFC

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Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Methane (CH4)
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
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Remember CFCs??? Ozone destroying chemical we
phased out with Montreal Protocol
Replacements HFCs 2 to 3 THOUSAND times more
potent than CO2 as a GHG
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Turn it up

• The 1980's were the hottest decade on
  record...until the 1990's.
• The 1990's were the warmest decade in at least
  1,000 years.
• 2003 was the 2nd hottest year ever recorded.
• Until 2005, then that was the hottest.
• January to September 2006, even hotter.
• The five hottest years on record all have
  occurred since 1997, and the 10 hottest since
  1990.
• The planet is now warming faster than at any time
  in the last 10,000 years....and the rate of
  change is accelerating.

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Temperature
Precipitation
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Major Indicators of Climate Change

• Global temperature rise of 1o F in past 100
  years.
• Poles melting. High latitude increases of 4o F
• 95 of worlds glaciers are retreating
• Seasons in the US and Europe have shifted by one
  week in past 50 years
• Precipitation patterns are changing
• Species are migrating higher and towards the
  poles
• Sea level has risen by 6-10, and rising

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Upsala Glacier Patagonia, Argentina
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Rhone Glacier Switzerland 1930-2001
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Pasterze Glacier Austria1875-2004
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Looking to the Future

• What will happen to concentrations of climate
  altering gases such as carbon dioxide if we fail
  to act?
• What will happen to planetary temperatures if we
  fail to act?

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CO2 Concentration Growth Scenarios
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Source http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ImageGlobal_
Warming_Predictions.png
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100 years ahead
Source Hadley Center model projection
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What does climate change mean to you locally?

• Long term shift in climate zone.
• Look southward 2-3 states.
• Replacement of maple, birch, with oak and pine
• Increase invasive in insect species.
• Extreme weather events
• Tornados, floods, hurricanes, droughts, heat
  waves, etc.
• Increased vulnerability of cities, people, and
  infrastructure

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Impacts in Maryland

• Sea Level Rise 15-40 inches, sea water intrusion
• Agricultural Impacts less tobacco more soybeans
• Increases in soil erosion and saltwater intrusion
  in Coastal Zones
• Increase in incidents of heat stress

Source Mid-Atlantic Climate Impacts Assessment
(Penn State, 2000)
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Heat waves Rise in Daily High Temperatures
Outcome Substantial increase in heat stress on
population
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So the problem of climate change is of growing
concern.What do we do to slow it?What do we do
to adapt to it?
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Stay Tuned...Six great speakers coming
up!!!!Thank You.
ContactJim YiengerDirector, ICLEI USA Policy
Institutejim.yienger_at_iclei.orgPhone
202-577-6950
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Options

• Use fossil fuels more efficiently
• Continue to use fossil fuels but capture and
  store CO2 physically and biologically
• Develop efficient market instruments to achieve
  cost effective energy mix
• Utilize other technologies such as nuclear, wind,
  solar, biomass and geothermal energy

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Business Opportunities

• Investment in renewable energy tripled to 18
  billion between 1995 and 2002
• The US once dominated wind, solar and biomass
  technology, but has fallen behind countries such
  as Japan, Germany Denmark and Brazil
• The IPCC estimates that there is sufficient
  technology available to reduce global CO2
  emissions by 15 in a decade at zero or net
  negative costs

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• Fossil fuels dominate the production of
  electricity (64) followed by hydro and nuclear
  (17) and other renewables (2)
• The growth, however, is in the reverse order
• Wind 25
• Solar 19
• Hydro 2
• Fossil fuels 0-2

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Global Trends in Energy Use 1992 - 2002
World Electricity Generation by Type 2000
Hydro
Fossil Fuels
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Lag Times
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Innovative Thinking is Needed to Address Climate
Change

• Now is the time to act, but it requires thinking
  in new, creative ways
• We need to replace talk with action!
• There are opportunities for all sectors of
  industry and to applaud and expand the successful
  measures of the innovators
• There are opportunities to follow the lead of
  innovative cities like Toronto who began
  municipal action in 1988