Risk Management With Your XP Goggles On

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Risk ManagementWith Your XP Goggles On

• Presented by Tim Lister November 28, 2005

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Strong Presence in Vietnam
Civil rights
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Strong Presence in Vietnam
Civil rights
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I am a Risk Management Zealot
I am a Team Zealot
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I like to think
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Risk Mgmt
Agility
People ware
My Talk
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This is a risk This is a problem.
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This is a risk This is a problem.
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NO!
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Do Great High Jumpers Compete at 1.25 meters?
1993 Javier Sotomayer (Cuba) 8.45
2.45m 1987 Stefka Kostadinova (Bulgaria) 6
10.2 2.09m
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What Does it Cost to Build a Swimming Pool?
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2 Ways to Think About Risk

• A risk is a potential problem.

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2 Ways to Think About Risk

• A risk is any variable on your project that,
• within its normal distribution of possible
  values, could take on a value that is
  detrimental, even fatal, to your project.

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We Cant Avoid Risk...

• All projects with benefit but no risk were
  completed long ago.
• You cant control many of the variables that
  could be risks.

Version 8.0 Will be ready when you need it!
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Avoiding a risk usually lowers the value of the
product.
(Value inside a Risk.)
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A Risk Ritual...

• Identify risks
• Assess risk exposure
• Determine which risks to manage
• Form action plans for direct risks.
• Form mitigation plans for indirect risks.
• Determine contingency fund.
• Build tripwires into project plan.
• Keep the process going...

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Identify Risks

• Dont start with a blank sheet -- www.sei.cmu.edu
  then software risk management
• McConnells Rapid Development
• Sweep for risks using brainstorms
• Keep tribes separate

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Assess Risk Exposure

• Determine probability of risk becoming problem.
• Determine cost/effort if it does become a problem.

Oh, that on-coming train!
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Determine Which Risks to Manage

• Is there a profitable trade-off here?
• Are there any actions I can take now that will
  either lower the probability or the cost?
• Should I try to contain this risk by building
  some contingency into my plan?

abulia, also aboulia \uh-BOO-lee-uh uh-BYOO-\,
noun Loss or impairment of the ability to act
or to make decisions.
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What You Can Do With A Risk

• Accept - wait to see if it becomes a problem
• Mitigate - lower probability and/or cost
• Contain - have a problem fund so risk
• does not impact published budget
• and/or schedule
• Transfer - give work to group with lower risk
• --------------------------------------------------
  ----------
• Assumptions - risks with small probability
• and high impact

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Form Action Plansfor Direct Risks

• Some risks you can mitigate immediately.
• This mitigation will cause you to change project
  plan, product definition, staffing plansomething!

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Form Mitigation Plansfor Indirect Risks

• Some risks you cant mitigate now.
• Determine actions if the problem manifests.
• Determine tripwire for risk-problem transition.
• Build in contingency.

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Indirect Risk MitigationRisk 3 All
functionality may not be ready to go at
start of new fiscal year.Mitigation Build
bridge code between old system and new, using
sub-systems 3 and 4 of old until all is
ready.Probability 50Tripwire If all DDRs are
not passed by 12/21/1999, we build
bridge.Cost Al 2 contractors 6 work months
170,000.
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Determine Contingency Fund For each indirect
risk Exposure probabilitycost It may also
cause Exposure probabilitydelay
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Building a Risk Buffer
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Build Tripwires into Project Plan

• What will tell you that you have a problem, not a
  risk?
• Will it go off early enough so that you still
  have time to mitigate?
• Could you get false positives?

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Keep the Process Going

• No reason to believe that you can identify all
  risks in one go.
• Review risks for changes in likelihood and
  opportunities for new actions.
• Retire a risk they all move up the list.

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A Look at Agility withyour RM goggles on
Incremental-ism is a great risk mitigation
strategy.
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A Look at Agility withyour RM goggles on
On time, in budget, in scope ? success
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A Look at Agility withyour RM goggles on
How does Iteration 0 work? Maybe a risk
assessment at its end? Define some/all Iterations
from risk viewpoint?
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A Look at Agility withyour RM goggles on
We are not recording secretaries.
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Gathering requirements???
Heres a pretty orange requirement. Ill take it
back to The office.
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Many requirements are invented.
User Requirement?
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Agility through your Peopleware goggles
Nothing beats face-to-face.
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Agility through your Peopleware goggles
Nothing beats working on only one project.
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Agility through your Peopleware goggles
Nothing beats working hard, and then going home.
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Whats at the intersection of these three?
Risk Mgmt
Agility
People ware
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An attempt to increase our chances for success.
But we must admit to
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The Dead Fish of Failure It sits on the table of
far too many projects.
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The Five Core Risks

• Size Inflation
• Productivity Variation
• Lack of Convergence
• Personnel Turnover
• Original Estimate Flaw

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Never lose the feeling
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Never lose the feeling
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Never lose the feeling
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Never lose the feeling
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Never lose the feeling
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Never lose the feeling
Thank you.
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Tim Lister The Atlantic Systems Guild, Inc. 353
West 12 Street New York NY 10014 212
620-4282 lister_at_acm.org systemsguild.com