Diplomacy

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Diplomacy

• PS 130 World Politics
• Michael R. Baysdell
• Saginaw Valley State University

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National Power Foundation of National Diplomacy

• Essential element of diplomacy in a system based
  on state sovereignty
• Power the ability of actor A to get actor B to
  perform As wishes
• Politics is power

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The Nature of Power

• Power A political resource
• National capabilities plus attributes
• Multifaceted
• Tangible and intangible elements
• Power as money A political currency
• Sometimes used in a charitable way
• Most often used to further self-interest

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Power as a Goal vs. Power as an Asset

• GOAL
• Do countries naturally seek to maintain and
  expand power?
• Balance-of-power politics
• Realist perspective

• ASSET
• Sum of various national capabilities
• Power as means, an instrument
• But how much is enough?

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Hard and Soft Power

• Hard power
• Ability to make someone else do something, or
  suffer the consequences
• Rests on negative incentives (sticks) and
  positive incentives (carrots)
• Soft power
• Ability to persuade others to follow your lead by
  being an attractive example
• Iraq may have damaged U.S. soft power
• Realists dismiss soft power

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Measuring Power

• Difficulties in creating a formula for what
  counts toward national power
• Weighing military power might versus economic
  capacity leadership capability versus national
  infrastructure
• Easy to I.D. criteria but hard to weight
• Difficulties in quantifying some aspects of power
• For example, leadership or perceptions (and
  misperceptions of power)

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Characteristics of Power (That Make Measurement
Difficult)

• Power is dynamic, constantly in flux
• Coercive power
• Persuasive power
• Power is both objective and subjective
• Power is relative In comparison to whom?
• Zero-sum game
• Power is situational
• Power that can realistically be brought to bear
  varies depending on the situation
• Power is multidimensional
• Need to consider all facets and context

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Elements of Power The National Core

• National Geography Location, Size, Topography,
  Climate can affect a nations power
• People Population, Age distribution, Health,
  Education (Quantity and Quality), Morale
• Government Administrative competence and
  effectiveness, leadership ability

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Elements of Power The National Infrastructure

• Technological sophisticationavailability and
  sophistication of weapons and dual-use technology
• Transportation systems
• Information and communications systems
• Dramatic gaps between LDCs and EDCs in these areas

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Measuring Military Power

• Military Spending
• Weapons
• Personnel
• - Recruits or Conscripts?
• -Training
• -Morale
• -Leadership (military and civilian)

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Military Power as an Asset

• But how do we measure military power?
• Military Spending
• What percentage of a countrys budget goes to
  defense?
• Weapons
• Numbers and level of technological sophistication
  
• Ease of delivering deadly weapons at increasing
  distances to produce larger numbers of casualties
  both absolutely and as a percentage soldiers and
  civilians to total populations of the countries
  at war.

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Military Power as an Asset

• But how do we measure military power?
• Personnel
• Number of troops, training, morale, leadership
• Scope of participation by diverse groups such as
  women and gays and lesbians
• conscripted armed forces (military draft) or
  volunteer/occupational forces
• Role of Political Reputation
• How do other countries perceive your military and
  your willingness to act?

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Military Assets to Diplomacy

• A countrys military power may be a huge asset in
  diplomacy
• Escalating Levels of Violence (Applications from
  intimidation to attack)
• Military power is Diplomatic backdrop U.S.
  dominant
• Overt threats Bush warning to Hussein to leave,
  2003
• Indirect intervention clandestine spying
• Limited demonstrations
• Direct action
• Can also employ other tactics
• Carrot and stick approach
• Arms merchant

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Military Power The Dangers of Overemphasis

• Military power can create insecurity
• Spiral of insecurity
• Military power creates temptation
• Using force when not really necessary
• Vietnam a possible example
• Military power is expensive
• Bombs or butter debate
• Paul Kennedy Imperial Overstretch

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The Effectiveness of Force

• Measurement by cost-benefit analysis, goal
  attainment
• Conditions for success
• Long-standing commitments
• Supported firmly by leaders (bipartisanship a
  plus)
• Supported by strong public opinion
• Used to defeat military forces
• Applied early and decisively
• Clear fixed goals (get in and get out)
• - long

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Paul KennedyThe Rise and Fall of Great Powers
(1988)

• Kennedy Great powers eventually fall, usually
  after imperial overstretch
• Examples Rome, British Empire
• Such Declinists worry U.S. is guilty of
  overstretch too and will pay a price as a
  resultloss of Pax Americana
• Critics Lax Americana more dangerous than Pax
  Americana. America MUST be involved to keep the
  world secure.
• Social Overstretch more of a danger The idea
  that spending money on altruistic social welfare
  programs to support the least productive people
  in society financially drains that economy.

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Economic Power Determinants

• Financial power Overall economic size, per
  capita size, exports, international investment,
  budget deficits, net trade
• Natural Resourcesself sufficiency leads to power
• Industrial output
• Agricultural output

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Using Economics Diplomatically

• Incentives economic aid given for a political
  goal
• Sanctions most effective when strong
  multilateral cooperation, target is unstable, and
  sanctions are quickly imposed and only harm
  target
• Sanctions have drawbacks can hurt civilians,
  hurt imposers

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The Nature of DiplomacyDiplomacy as Applied
Power

• Direct diplomatic application of power
• Includes the use or threat of economic sanctions
  and the threat of military force
• Indirect diplomatic application of power
• Involves a communications process of a country
  skillfully advancing its policy preferences,
  arguing the merits of its position, and
  persuading others to join it in promoting those
  goals or at least to accede to them

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A Foundation for Analysis

• The U.S.North Korean confrontation
• China-Taiwan tensions
• The U.S.-Afghani crisis in 2001
• The U.S.-Iraqi crisis of 20022003
• UNSC 242 imprecision

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The Context of Diplomacy

• Historical rootssecrecy!
• Expansion of geographic scope
• Multilateral diplomacy
• Leader-to-leader diplomacy
• Democratized diplomacy
• Parliamentary diplomacy
• Open diplomacy
• Public diplomacy
• Lets examine one by one

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Text of the Nazi-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact

• The Government of the German Reich and The
  Government of the Union of Soviet Socialist
  Republics desirous of strengthening the cause of
  peace between Germany and the U.S.S.R., and
  proceeding from the fundamental provisions of the
  Neutrality Agreement concluded in April, 1926
  between Germany and the U.S.S.R., have reached
  the following AgreementArticle I. Both High
  Contracting Parties obligate themselves to desist
  from any act of violence, any aggressive action,
  and any attack on each other, either individually
  or jointly with other Powers.
• Article II. Should one of the High Contracting
  Parties become the object of belligerent action
  by a third Power, the other High Contracting
  Party shall in no manner lend its support to this
  third Power.
• Article III. The Governments of the two High
  Contracting Parties shall in the future maintain
  continual contact with one another for the
  purpose of consultation in order to exchange
  information on problems affecting their common
  interests.
• Article IV. Should disputes or conflicts arise
  between the High Contracting Parties shall
  participate in any grouping of Powers whatsoever
  that is directly or indirectly aimed at the other
  party.
• Article V. Should disputes or conflicts arise
  between the High Contracting Parties over
  problems of one kind or another, both parties
  shall settle these disputes or conflicts
  exclusively through friendly exchange of opinion
  or, if necessary, through the establishment of
  arbitration commissions.
• Article VI. The present Treaty is concluded for a
  period of ten years, with the proviso that, in so
  far as one of the High Contracting Parties does
  not advance it one year prior to the expiration
  of this period, the validity of this Treaty shall
  automatically be extended for another five years.
  
• Article VII. The present treaty shall be ratified
  within the shortest possible time. The
  ratifications shall be exchanged in Berlin. The
  Agreement shall enter into force as soon as it is
  signed. The section below was not published at
  the time the above was announced. Secret
  Additional Protocol.
• Article I. In the event of a territorial and
  political rearrangement in the areas belonging to
  the Baltic States (Finland, Estonia, Latvia,
  Lithuania), the northern boundary of Lithuania
  shall represent the boundary of the spheres of
  influence of Germany and U.S.S.R. In this
  connection the interest of Lithuania in the Vilna
  area is recognized by each party.
• Article II. In the event of a territorial and
  political rearrangement of the areas belonging to
  the Polish state, the spheres of influence of
  Germany and the U.S.S.R. shall be bounded
  approximately by the line of the rivers Narev,
  Vistula and San.
• The question of whether the interests of both
  parties make desirable the maintenance of an
  independent Polish States and how such a state
  should be bounded can only be definitely
  determined in the course of further political
  developments.
• In any event both Governments will resolve this
  question by means of a friendly agreement.
• Article III. With regard to Southeastern Europe
  attention is called by the Soviet side to its
  interest in Bessarabia. The German side declares
  its complete political disinteredness in these
  areas.
• Article IV. This protocol shall be treated by
  both parties as strictly secret. Moscow, August
  23, 1939.

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Expansion of Geographic Scope

• No longer limited to Europe
• Rise of multilateral, parliamentary, and
  democratized diplomacy
• Value placed on open diplomacy
• Role of United Nations
• More high-level diplomacy
• Use of public diplomacy for negotiation leverage

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Multilateral Diplomacy

• Travel, technological, and communication
  revolutions
• Increasing recognition of global (transnational)
  concerns and issues
• Attractive to smaller countries as a way to
  influence policy
• Expectations that important international actions
  will be taken within multilateral framework

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Leader-to-Leader Diplomacy

• Upsurge of high-level diplomacy
• Prevalence of "summit meetings"
• Example Annual meetings of the leaders of the
  Group of Eight (G-8)
• Example Periodic meetings between Presidents of
  U.S. and Russia to negotiate and sign nuclear
  disarmament, strategic defense, and bilateral
  trade agreements.
• Example Quarterly European Council meetings of
  EU heads of State and government to negotiate and
  sign agreements and assess progress concerning
  European economic, foreign, and security policy
  integration.

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Advantages of Leader-to-Leader Diplomacy

• Symbolic gestures shifts in relations
• Dramatic breakthroughs can be made
• False information and stereotypes can be
  dispelled
• Mutual confidences/friendships may develop among
  leaders

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Disadvantages of Leader-to-Leader Diplomacy

• Ill-conceived agreements may result when experts
  are pushed aside
• Misunderstandings may occur
• Difficult to reverse (no escape routes)
• Personal tensions between leaders can damage
  working relations

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Democratized Diplomacy

• Diplomats representative of wider segment of
  society
• Rise of the roles of legislatures, interest
  groups, and other expressions of popular opinion
  in diplomatic relations
• Promotion of public diplomacy aimed at
  legislatures, interest groups, and other
  expressions of popular opinion

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Democratized Diplomacy, continued

• Two-level game theory
• Leaders must find a solution that is acceptable
  to both other countries at the international
  level and political actors (legislatures, voters,
  interest groups) at the domestic level

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Parliamentary Diplomacy

• Debating and voting in international
  organizations
• Raises questions about sovereign equality
• Illustrated by U.S. campaign to win UN Security
  Council approval for an invasion of Iraq in 2003

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Open Diplomacy

• Emphasis on widely reported and well-documented
  diplomacy
• Strengths and weaknesses of open diplomacy
• Public negotiations can compromise ability to win
  concessions and lead diplomats to posture for
  public consumption
• Transparent diplomatic negotiations and wide
  knowledge and documentation of international
  agreements upholds democratic principles of
  government

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Public Diplomacy

• Important role of communication revolution
• Process of creating an overall international
  image that enhances a countrys ability to
  achieve diplomatic success
• Uses of propaganda
• Attempt to influence another country by appealing
  to emotions rather than logic
• Can extend to disinformation campaigns

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Public Diplomacy, continued

• Releasing public reports demonstrating violations
  of human rights by a foreign government
• Supporting, organizing, and publicizing political
  activity by opposition groups and parties in a
  foreign country to achieve changes in a foreign
  government's policies
• Examples include U.S. public diplomacy efforts
  aimed at changing policies and reforming
  governments in Cuba and Iran. (e.g., Radio Marti
  broadcasts into Cuba and Voice of America
  broadcasts into Iran)

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Diplomacy as a Communication Process

• Observing and reporting
• Negotiating
• Signaling

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The Rules of Effective Diplomacy

• Be realistic
• Be careful what you say and give away
• Understand the importance of language
• Seek common ground
• Be flexible
• Understand the other side
• Be patient
• Leave avenues of retreat open

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Options for Conducting Diplomacy

• Direct versus indirect negotiation
• High-level versus low-level
• Using coercion versus rewards to gain agreement
• Being precise versus being intentionally vague.
• Communicating by word versus by deed
• Linking issues versus treating them separately
• Maximizing or minimizing a dispute

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CHAPTER OBJECTIVES

• After reading this chapter, students should be
  able to
• 1. Characterize statecraft as an activity
  conducted by a state to further its interests.
• 2. Analyze the characteristics of power.
• 3. Understand the challenges of measuring power
• 4. Understand how the national core relates to
  power.
• 5. Understand how the national infrastructure
  relates to power.
• 6. Describe how military power is measured and
  the debate about how much power states should
  amass.
• 7. Describe the sources of economic power.
• 8. Explain how the military dimension of power
  can be used and when it is likely to be
  effective.
• 9. Explain how the economic dimension of power
  can be used and when sanctions are likely to be
  effective.
• 10. Describe diplomacy as applied power.
• 11. Discuss the advantages and disadvantages of
  various diplomatic strategies.
• 12. Discuss the rules of effective diplomacy.
• 13. Describe diplomacy as a communications
  process.
• 14. Discuss the use of diplomatic communication
  in shaping public perceptions.